Short Trade on DOGE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 9433.74 DOGE at 0.0692$ per unit. Take profit: 0.06707 (3.06 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07003 (1.21 %)
03 Aug 2026 at 03:06:53
hyperliquid
DOGE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
03 Aug 2026 03:06
→ 09:45
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 0.06919$
Qty 9433.7398 DOGE
Size 652.6827$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 0.06707 (+3.06%)
TP $ 20$
SL 0.07003 (-1.21%)
SL $ 7.92$
RR 2.52
Status
loss
PnL
-1.21%
/ -7.92$
MAE -1.98%
MFE +0.35%
0.3R
expires
03 Aug 15:06
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 57114)
#4 / 38
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 03/08/2026 03:00
score du 03/08/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6879
Quality Score
0.566
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
9.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/08 03:00
03/08 03:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#4 / 38
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.21 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#4 / 38
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.21 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.37×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 03/08 03:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 02/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 03/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 03/08 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1255
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.53
Transition risk :
0.47
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.47
Snapshot évalué :
03/08 03:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
03/08/2026 03:00
Score brut
0.5662
Score SMA
0.5237
Rank
#4
/ 38
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6879
Rank Norm SMA
0.4884
Calculé le
03/08/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4608 | r1h: -0.534% · r4h: -0.857% · r1d: -1.29% · r3d: -0.96% · ema21_slope: -0.0043% · dist_ema21: -0.932% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5042 | rs_1h: -0.213% · rs_4h: -0.030% · rs_1d: 0.07% · rs_3d: 1.53% · beta_24h: 1.072 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5207 | rvol_20: 1.89× · zscore_50: 0.419 · trend: 2.80% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6515 | ADX: 18.2 (weak) · Chop: 34.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.536% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.214%
(0.0008)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.273% | 0.2R | -0.215% | 0.2R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -0.263% | 0.2R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -0.835% | 0.7R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -1.880% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.348% | 0.3R | -1.976% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -2.061% | 1.7R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.25
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.79 | bear_high | -6.47% | -0.30 | 02/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.4ATR | near -0.2ATR | 0.83 | bear_high | -1.74% | +0.19 | 03/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium |
56%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.69 | bear_low | -1.27% | +0.01 | 03/08 02:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_low_confirmed |
49%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | — | bear_low | -0.84% | +0.01 | 03/08 02:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 30b | — | 3.8×ATR | p38 | -0.251×ATR | p28 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 1.852×ATR | p0 | -0.318×ATR | p36 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 5.371×ATR | p93 | -1.242×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 9b | — | 3.043×ATR | p50 | -1.503×ATR | p87 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.843
- reason: down_bo width=2.13×ATR dur=59b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.07003402
- tp_price: 0.06706594
- atr:
- score: 0.84300662856227
- expires_at: 2026-08-03T19:06:46.115989
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84300662856227
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0506
- obi_top10 : 0.0726
- micro_price : 0.06918329
- spread_pct : 0.014455
- mid_price : 0.069185
- bid_wall_price : 0.068
- bid_wall_size : 22224870.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.0703
- ask_wall_size : 16726391
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0395
- obi_top5_std : 0.0154
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7014
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.070401
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.069591
- balance_zone_mid:
0.069996
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785531600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785740400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1302
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
59
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.843
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785736800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.069591
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.661
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.0651
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00038025 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
59
inside_close_ratio
0.661
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0651
Signaux confirmants (42)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:06 | 0.06918600 | -0.006% |
| 2 | 03:12 | 0.06918600 | -0.006% |
| 3 | 03:18 | 0.06906700 | -0.178% |
| 4 | 03:24 | 0.06906700 | -0.178% |
| 5 | 03:31 | 0.06906700 | -0.178% |
| 6 | 03:36 | 0.06931400 | +0.179% |
| 7 | 03:42 | 0.06931400 | +0.179% |
| 8 | 03:48 | 0.06922000 | +0.043% |
| 9 | 03:54 | 0.06922000 | +0.043% |
| 10 | 04:01 | 0.06922000 | +0.043% |
| 11 | 04:06 | 0.06924100 | +0.074% |
| 12 | 04:12 | 0.06924100 | +0.074% |
| 13 | 04:18 | 0.06920600 | +0.023% |
| 14 | 04:24 | 0.06920600 | +0.023% |
| 15 | 04:31 | 0.06920600 | +0.023% |
| 16 | 04:37 | 0.06905200 | -0.199% |
| 17 | 04:43 | 0.06905200 | -0.199% |
| 18 | 04:49 | 0.06923000 | +0.058% |
| 19 | 04:55 | 0.06923000 | +0.058% |
| 20 | 05:01 | 0.06923000 | +0.058% |
| 21 | 05:06 | 0.06926000 | +0.101% |
| 22 | 05:12 | 0.06926000 | +0.101% |
| 23 | 05:18 | 0.06936100 | +0.247% |
| 24 | 05:24 | 0.06936100 | +0.247% |
| 25 | 05:31 | 0.06936100 | +0.247% |
| 26 | 05:36 | 0.06946000 | +0.39% |
| 27 | 05:42 | 0.06946000 | +0.39% |
| 28 | 05:49 | 0.06947200 | +0.408% |
| 29 | 05:55 | 0.06947200 | +0.408% |
| 30 | 06:01 | 0.06947200 | +0.408% |
| 31 | 06:06 | 0.06969500 | +0.73% |
| 32 | 06:12 | 0.06969500 | +0.73% |
| 33 | 06:18 | 0.06964000 | +0.65% |
| 34 | 06:24 | 0.06964000 | +0.65% |
| 35 | 06:31 | 0.06964000 | +0.65% |
| 36 | 07:07 | 0.06941100 | +0.319% |
| 37 | 07:12 | 0.06941100 | +0.319% |
| 38 | 07:19 | 0.06934500 | +0.224% |
| 39 | 07:25 | 0.06934500 | +0.224% |
| 40 | 07:31 | 0.06934500 | +0.224% |
| 41 | 07:37 | 0.06945700 | +0.386% |
| 42 | 07:43 | 0.06945700 | +0.386% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7014ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.051
avg 0.040
± 0.015
OBI Top 10
0.073
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0692
Micro Price
0.0692
Spread
0.0145%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0680
Size
22,224,870.40
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0703
Size
16,726,391.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06919 | 0.07003 | 0.06707 | 2.52 | 0.08723 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06919
- Stop Loss: 0.07003
- Take Profit: 0.06707
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07003 - 0.06919 = 0.00083999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06919 - 0.06707 = 0.00212
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00212 / 0.00083999999999999 = 2.5238
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 652.6827 | 100 | 9433.7398 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00083999999999999
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00083999999999999 = 9523.81
Taille de position USD = 9523.81 x 0.06919 = 658.95
Donc, tu peux acheter 9523.81 avec un stoploss a 0.07003
Avec un position size USD de 658.95$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 9523.81 x 0.00083999999999999 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 9523.81 x 0.00212 = 20.19
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.19$
Résumé
- Taille de position 9523.81
- Taille de position USD 658.95
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.19
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5238
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.06 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.21 % | 7.92 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.92 $ | -1.21 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3138 % | 108.22 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06919 | 0.07003 | 0.06707 | 2.52 | 0.08723 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.06919
- Stop Loss: 0.07003
- Take Profit: 0.06707
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07003 - 0.06919 = 0.00083999999999999
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.06919 - 0.06707 = 0.00212
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00212 / 0.00083999999999999 = 2.5238
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.214%
(0.0008)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.273% | 0.2R | -0.215% | 0.2R | 1.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -0.263% | 0.2R | 1.3× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -0.835% | 0.7R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -1.880% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.348% | 0.3R | -1.976% | 1.6R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.348% | 0.3R | -2.061% | 1.7R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 2 months ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.