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Long Trade on ARB

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03 Aug 2026 at 23:10:08 hyperliquid

Long Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_v2)

With 4525.6 ARB at 0.084$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08606 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08219 (2.11 %)

ARB LONG momentum_rotation_v2 hyperliquid 03 Aug 2026 23:10 → 03:15 · 4 hours

Position

Entry 0.08396$

Qty 4525.6036 ARB

Size 379.9697$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)

Risk Setup

TP 0.08606 (+2.5%)

TP $ 9.5$

SL 0.08219 (-2.11%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR 1.19

Status loss PnL -1.91% / -7.24$ MAE -1.92% MFE +0.00% 0.0R expires 04 Aug 03:20 Exit rank_decay: long rank=12 > threshold=10/42

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 57869)
#4 / 41 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 03/08/2026 23:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.7335

Quality Score
0.698
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
93 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
03/08 23:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#4 / 41 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
93 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.11 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#4 / 41 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
93 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.11 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.99×ATR
4h clear 3.40×ATR
1d clear 29.05×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late OK
4h ↑ up late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down mid OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bull_moderate

rules_regime : bull_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 2

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : range_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

03/08 23:00

Score : 0

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3)

03/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

03/08 20:00

Tactical (1H) : bull_high_confirmed (+1)

03/08 22:00

Score : 0 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1275
range compression range_bound
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational range range — 0
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.50
Transition risk : 0.50
Score contribution (this trade) 0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.70
Snapshot évalué : 03/08 23:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 03/08/2026 23:00
Score brut
0.6982
Score SMA
0.5429
Rank
#4 / 41
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7335
Rank Norm SMA
0.5892
Calculé le
03/08/2026 23:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.6569 r1h: 0.335% · r4h: 1.858% · r1d: 4.36% · r3d: 6.95% · ema21_slope: 0.1130% · dist_ema21: 2.237%
Force Relative 25% 0.6265 rs_1h: 0.258% · rs_4h: 1.398% · rs_1d: 3.18% · rs_3d: 5.63% · beta_24h: 0.591
Volume 20% 0.7140 rvol_20: 2.11× · zscore_50: 1.313 · trend: 76.88%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.6778 ADX: 21.3 (weak) · Chop: 35.1 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.883% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4.2h) Initial Risk: -2.108% (0.0018)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.179% 0.6R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.274% 0.6R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -1.739% 0.8R 0.0× 48
4.2h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -1.918% 0.9R 0.0× 49
8h +0.000% 0.0R -2.406% 1.1R 0.0× 96
12h +0.000% 0.0R -3.561% 1.7R 0.0× 144

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

ⓘ
TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↔ neutral range range moderate grind compression bear_high
55%
noisy_chop 38% mid — — 0.71 bear_high -5.36% -0.40 03/08 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate fading normal bull_high
60%
noisy_chop 47% late — — 0.66 range_high -0.26% +0.61 03/08 20:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong fading volatile_reversal bull_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 45% late — near -1.0ATR 0.57 range_medium +0.72% +0.21 03/08 22:00
15m ↑ up range range moderate balanced expansion bull_medium_confirmed
61%
noisy_chop 50% late — — — range_low +0.71% +0.06 03/08 22:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down mid 23b — 4.629×ATR p61 +0.526×ATR p53
4h ↑ up late 21b — 6.265×ATR p89 +1.434×ATR p94
1h ↓ down late 17b — 0×ATR p0 +1.498×ATR p94
15m ↑ up late 7b — 5.223×ATR p96 +1.413×ATR p87

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_v2 - BUY

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.08219228
  2. tp_price: 0.086059
  3. atr: 0.00070709
  4. expires_at: 2026-08-04T09:10:08+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 6
  2. total: 41
  3. score: 0.6569
  4. delta_2h: 0.1188
  5. extension_atr: 2.4
  6. trend_phase:
  7. trend_direction:
  8. rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.7335
  9. confidence: 0.925

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08396 0.08219 0.08606 1.19 0.2026
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08396
  • Stop Loss: 0.08219
  • Take Profit: 0.08606

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.08219 - 0.08396 = -0.00177

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08396 - 0.08606 = -0.0021

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0021 / -0.00177 = 1.1864

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
379.9697 100 4525.6036 4.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -0.00177

Taille de position = 8 / -0.00177 = -4519.77

Taille de position USD = -4519.77 x 0.08396 = -379.48

Donc, tu peux acheter -4519.77 avec un stoploss a 0.08219

Avec un position size USD de -379.48$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -4519.77 x -0.00177 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -4519.77 x -0.0021 = 9.49

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 9.49$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -4519.77
  • Taille de position USD -379.48
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 9.49
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 1.1864

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.5 % 9.5 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.11 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
-7.24 $ -1.91
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.9057 % 90.4 % 0
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.08396 0.08219 0.08606 1.19 0.2026
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.08396
  • Stop Loss: 0.08219
  • Take Profit: 0.08606

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.08219 - 0.08396 = -0.00177

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.08396 - 0.08606 = -0.0021

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.0021 / -0.00177 = 1.1864

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★ 4.2h) Initial Risk: -2.108% (0.0018)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.000% 0.0R -1.179% 0.6R 0.0× 12
2h +0.000% 0.0R -1.274% 0.6R 0.0× 24
4h +0.000% 0.0R -1.739% 0.8R 0.0× 48
4.2h ★ +0.000% 0.0R -1.918% 0.9R 0.0× 49
8h +0.000% 0.0R -2.406% 1.1R 0.0× 96
12h +0.000% 0.0R -3.561% 1.7R 0.0× 144

computed 1 month ago

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