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Short Trade on JUP

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04 Aug 2026 at 11:26:37 hyperliquid

Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 1839.44 JUP at 0.189$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1779 (5.77 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1932 (2.33 %)

JUP SHORT BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 04 Aug 2026 11:26 → 23:25 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 0.1888$

Qty 1839.4357 JUP

Size 347.3038$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0.1779 (+5.77%)

TP $ 20.05$

SL 0.1932 (-2.33%)

SL $ 8.09$

RR 2.48

Status win PnL +0.14% / +0.5$ MAE -1.49% MFE +1.10% 0.5R expires 04 Aug 23:26 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 58384)
#8 / 45 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 04/08/2026 11:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5006

Quality Score
0.630
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
64 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
04/08 11:15

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#8 / 45 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
64 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
N/A
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.33 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#8 / 45 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
64 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.33 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h clear —
1d clear —
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h — — OK
4h — — OK
1d — — OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bull_moderate

rules_regime : bull_medium

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : range_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : range_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

04/08 11:00

Score : 0

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

—

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot) 1287
range compression range_bound
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational range range — 0
Tactical bull expansion — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.50
Transition risk : 0.50
Score contribution (this trade) 0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.70
Snapshot évalué : 04/08 11:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Calculé le 04/08/2026 11:00
Score brut
0.6295
Score SMA
0.4933
Rank
#8 / 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5006
Rank Norm SMA
0.3827
Calculé le
04/08/2026 11:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.4250 r1h: -0.248% · r4h: -1.206% · r1d: -1.89% · r3d: -1.25% · ema21_slope: -0.0565% · dist_ema21: -1.453%
Force Relative 25% 0.3734 rs_1h: -0.945% · rs_4h: -1.771% · rs_1d: -2.14% · rs_3d: -2.83% · beta_24h: 0.653
Volume 20% 1.0000 rvol_20: 13.65× · zscore_50: 6.893 · trend: 480.39%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7246 ADX: 27.0 (trend) · Chop: 33.9 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.744% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.331% (0.0044)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.530% 0.2R -0.381% 0.2R 1.4× 12
2h +0.530% 0.2R -0.381% 0.2R 1.4× 24
4h +0.530% 0.2R -0.964% 0.4R 0.6× 48
8h +0.530% 0.2R -1.494% 0.6R 0.4× 96
12h ★ +1.096% 0.5R -1.494% 0.6R 0.7× 144
24h +1.647% 0.7R -1.494% 0.6R 1.1× 288

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.44
Prediction Score: N/A
No context market snapshot

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: -1
  2. confidence: 0.6441
  3. reason: down_bo width=2.88×ATR dur=32b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 0.19315916
  5. tp_price: 0.1779371
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.74407036057631
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-05T03:26:29.951170
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.74407036057631
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : 0.2388
  10. obi_top10 : 0.2448
  11. micro_price : 0.1885074
  12. spread_pct : 0.05305
  13. mid_price : 0.18855
  14. bid_wall_price : 0.188
  15. bid_wall_size : 755145.8
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price : 0.19
  18. ask_wall_size : 448129
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : 0.2389
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0001
  23. pressure_side : bid
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 6989
  26. aggregation_tick : 0.001
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    0.19496
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    0.19109
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    0.193025
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1785744000
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1785855600
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.8846
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    32
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: established
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.7441
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1785844800
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    0.19109
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.8125
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    3
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    1.6995
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    2
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    10
  54. regime : bear_high_confirmed
  55. atr_entry : 0.0013416
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
32
inside_close_ratio
0.8125
bars_since_breakout
3
distance_to_edge_atr
1.6995

Signaux confirmants (27)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 11:26 0.18881000 +0.005%
2 11:33 0.18881000 +0.005%
3 11:38 0.18797000 -0.44%
4 11:44 0.18797000 -0.44%
5 11:50 0.18914000 +0.18%
6 11:56 0.18914000 +0.18%
7 12:03 0.18914000 +0.18%
8 12:08 0.18888000 +0.042%
9 12:14 0.18888000 +0.042%
10 12:20 0.18908000 +0.148%
11 12:26 0.18908000 +0.148%
12 12:33 0.18908000 +0.148%
13 12:38 0.18908000 +0.148%
14 12:44 0.18908000 +0.148%
15 12:50 0.18875000 -0.026%
16 12:56 0.18875000 -0.026%
17 13:03 0.18875000 -0.026%
18 13:08 0.18900000 +0.106%
19 13:14 0.18900000 +0.106%
20 13:20 0.18932000 +0.275%
21 13:26 0.18932000 +0.275%
22 13:33 0.18932000 +0.275%
23 13:38 0.18903000 +0.122%
24 13:44 0.18903000 +0.122%
25 13:50 0.18894000 +0.074%
26 13:56 0.18894000 +0.074%
27 14:03 0.18894000 +0.074%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↑ bid ws_rolling 5 snapshots 6989ms Confidence avant OB : 74% → 64%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 0.239
avg 0.239 ± 0.000
OBI Top 10 0.245

Microstructure

Mid Price
0.1886
Micro Price
0.1885
Spread
0.0531%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
0.1880
Size
755,145.80

↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)

Price
0.1900
Size
448,129.00

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1888 0.1932 0.1779 2.48 0.3296
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1888
  • Stop Loss: 0.1932
  • Take Profit: 0.1779

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1932 - 0.1888 = 0.0044

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1888 - 0.1779 = 0.0109

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0109 / 0.0044 = 2.4773

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
347.3038 100 1839.4357 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.0044

Taille de position = 8 / 0.0044 = 1818.18

Taille de position USD = 1818.18 x 0.1888 = 343.27

Donc, tu peux acheter 1818.18 avec un stoploss a 0.1932

Avec un position size USD de 343.27$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 1818.18 x 0.0044 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 1818.18 x 0.0109 = 19.82

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.82$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 1818.18
  • Taille de position USD 343.27
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 19.82
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4773

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
5.77 % 20.05 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.33 % 8.09 $
PNL PNL %
0.5 $ 0.14
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.4936 % 64.09 % 25
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.1888 0.1932 0.1779 2.48 0.3296
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.1888
  • Stop Loss: 0.1932
  • Take Profit: 0.1779

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.1932 - 0.1888 = 0.0044

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.1888 - 0.1779 = 0.0109

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0109 / 0.0044 = 2.4773

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -2.331% (0.0044)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.530% 0.2R -0.381% 0.2R 1.4× 12
2h +0.530% 0.2R -0.381% 0.2R 1.4× 24
4h +0.530% 0.2R -0.964% 0.4R 0.6× 48
8h +0.530% 0.2R -1.494% 0.6R 0.4× 96
12h ★ +1.096% 0.5R -1.494% 0.6R 0.7× 144
24h +1.647% 0.7R -1.494% 0.6R 1.1× 288

computed 1 month ago

Commentaires

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