Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2687.21 JUP at 0.19$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1827 (3.94 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1932 (1.58 %)
04 Aug 2026 at 18:38:49
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
04 Aug 2026 18:38
→ 06:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1902$
Qty 2687.2059 JUP
Size 511.0528$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1827 (+3.94%)
TP $ 20.15$
SL 0.1932 (-1.58%)
SL $ 8.06$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.49%
/ +7.6$
MAE -0.08%
MFE +1.82%
1.2R
expires
05 Aug 06:38
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 58698)
#17 / 45
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 04/08/2026 18:00
score du 04/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6165
Quality Score
0.514
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
04/08 18:30
04/08 18:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#17 / 45
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.58 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#17 / 45
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.58 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -1.10×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.95×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.40×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 04/08 18:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 03/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 04/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 04/08 18:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
04/08/2026 18:00
Score brut
0.5136
Score SMA
0.5077
Rank
#17
/ 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6165
Rank Norm SMA
0.4085
Calculé le
04/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4700 | r1h: -0.230% · r4h: 1.231% · r1d: -1.65% · r3d: -1.09% · ema21_slope: -0.0872% · dist_ema21: -0.117% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4540 | rs_1h: -0.051% · rs_4h: 0.824% · rs_1d: -2.66% · rs_3d: -3.34% · beta_24h: 0.597 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2546 | rvol_20: 0.16× · zscore_50: -0.217 · trend: 1.83% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7210 | ADX: 31.2 (trend) · Chop: 43.0 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.706% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.577%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.752% | 0.5R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 8.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.635% | 1.0R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 19.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.824% | 1.2R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 21.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.824% | 1.2R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 21.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.824% | 1.2R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 21.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.371% | 1.5R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 28.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 6.46
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.67 | bear_high | -4.55% | -0.65 | 03/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.58 | range_high | +0.44% | -0.21 | 04/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_medium |
62%
|
noisy_chop 44% | early | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.65 | bull_medium | +0.96% | -0.22 | 04/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | range_low |
41%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | — | — | — | range_low | +0.60% | +0.03 | 04/08 18:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 33b | — | 6.167×ATR | p65 | -0.364×ATR | p39 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 16b | — | 2.731×ATR | p27 | -0.404×ATR | p42 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 2.368×ATR | p40 | -0.004×ATR | p0 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 2.34×ATR | p21 | -0.632×ATR | p50 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6774
- reason: down_bo width=2.93×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.19315707
- tp_price: 0.18273732
- atr:
- score: 0.77742559715817
- expires_at: 2026-08-05T10:38:41.725607
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.77742559715817
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.241
- obi_top10 : 0.2597
- micro_price : 0.18983593
- spread_pct : 0.052687
- mid_price : 0.18985
- bid_wall_price : 0.188
- bid_wall_size : 840945.4
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.192
- ask_wall_size : 486060
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2335
- obi_top5_std : 0.0043
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7045
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.19496
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.19109
- balance_zone_mid:
0.193025
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785744000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785880800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9302
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7774
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785877200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.19109
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6923
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.689
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00132074 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.6923
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.689
Signaux confirmants (20)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:38 | 0.19018000 | -0.011% |
| 2 | 18:44 | 0.19018000 | -0.011% |
| 3 | 18:50 | 0.19019000 | -0.005% |
| 4 | 18:56 | 0.19019000 | -0.005% |
| 5 | 19:03 | 0.19019000 | -0.005% |
| 6 | 19:38 | 0.18887000 | -0.699% |
| 7 | 19:44 | 0.18887000 | -0.699% |
| 8 | 19:50 | 0.18891000 | -0.678% |
| 9 | 19:56 | 0.18891000 | -0.678% |
| 10 | 20:03 | 0.18891000 | -0.678% |
| 11 | 20:09 | 0.18796000 | -1.178% |
| 12 | 20:15 | 0.18796000 | -1.178% |
| 13 | 20:20 | 0.18794000 | -1.188% |
| 14 | 20:26 | 0.18794000 | -1.188% |
| 15 | 20:33 | 0.18794000 | -1.188% |
| 16 | 20:38 | 0.18782000 | -1.251% |
| 17 | 20:44 | 0.18782000 | -1.251% |
| 18 | 21:50 | 0.18820000 | -1.052% |
| 19 | 21:56 | 0.18820000 | -1.052% |
| 20 | 22:03 | 0.18820000 | -1.052% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7045ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
68%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.241
avg 0.234
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.260
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1899
Micro Price
0.1898
Spread
0.0527%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.1880
Size
840,945.40
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.1920
Size
486,060.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1902 | 0.1932 | 0.1827 | 2.5 | 0.3504 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1902
- Stop Loss: 0.1932
- Take Profit: 0.1827
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1932 - 0.1902 = 0.003
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1902 - 0.1827 = 0.0075
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0075 / 0.003 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 511.0528 | 100 | 2687.2059 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.003
Taille de position = 8 / 0.003 = 2666.67
Taille de position USD = 2666.67 x 0.1902 = 507.2
Donc, tu peux acheter 2666.67 avec un stoploss a 0.1932
Avec un position size USD de 507.2$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2666.67 x 0.003 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2666.67 x 0.0075 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2666.67
- Taille de position USD 507.2
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.94 % | 20.15 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.58 % | 8.06 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 7.6 $ | 1.49 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.0841 % | 5.33 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1902 | 0.1932 | 0.1827 | 2.5 | 0.3504 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1902
- Stop Loss: 0.1932
- Take Profit: 0.1827
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1932 - 0.1902 = 0.003
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1902 - 0.1827 = 0.0075
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0075 / 0.003 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.577%
(0.0030)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.752% | 0.5R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 8.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.635% | 1.0R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 19.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.824% | 1.2R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 21.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.824% | 1.2R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 21.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.824% | 1.2R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 21.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.371% | 1.5R | -0.084% | 0.1R | 28.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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