Short Trade on XRP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1264.67 XRP at 1.069$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0533 (1.48 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0754 (0.59 %)
05 Aug 2026 at 15:07:35
hyperliquid
XRP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
05 Aug 2026 15:07
→ 21:55
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 1.0691$
Qty 1264.6722 XRP
Size 1352.061$ (margin 100$) (leverage 14)
Risk Setup
TP 1.0533 (+1.48%)
TP $ 19.98$
SL 1.0754 (-0.59%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 2.51
Status
win
PnL
+1.48%
/ +19.98$
MAE -0.26%
MFE +2.79%
4.7R
expires
06 Aug 03:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 59606)
#17 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 05/08/2026 15:00
score du 05/08/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5023
Quality Score
0.528
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
18.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
05/08 15:00
05/08 15:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#17 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+5
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.59 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#17 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
79 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.59 %
TIGHT
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.61×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.22×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.38×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_low Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low_confirmed (-1) 05/08 15:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 04/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 05/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 05/08 14:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué : 05/08 15:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5278
Score SMA
0.4879
Rank
#17
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5023
Rank Norm SMA
0.2961
Calculé le
05/08/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5010 | r1h: 0.028% · r4h: 0.526% · r1d: -0.59% · r3d: -0.97% · ema21_slope: -0.0399% · dist_ema21: 0.275% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4544 | rs_1h: -0.043% · rs_4h: 0.005% · rs_1d: -1.38% · rs_3d: -3.20% · beta_24h: 0.934 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4442 | rvol_20: 1.19× · zscore_50: 0.341 · trend: 33.56% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5006 | ADX: 12.0 (weak) · Chop: 50.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.491% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.589%
(0.0063)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.187% | 0.3R | -0.225% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.225% | 0.4R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.842% | 1.4R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.600% | 4.4R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 9.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.787% | 4.7R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 10.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.433% | 5.8R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 13.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 4.58
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -3.54% | -0.28 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.84 | bull_high | +1.14% | -0.33 | 05/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | range_medium |
41%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | — | near -0.5ATR | 0.79 | bull_medium | +1.50% | -0.13 | 05/08 14:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | weak | fading | normal | range_low |
34%
|
noisy_chop 42% | mid | — | — | — | bull_low | +0.78% | +0.05 | 05/08 14:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 15b | — | 2.993×ATR | p20 | -0.209×ATR | p27 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 13b | — | 1.602×ATR | p0 | +0.095×ATR | p13 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +0.799×ATR | p69 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 10b | — | 3.705×ATR | p68 | +0.393×ATR | p38 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7918
- reason: down_bo width=2.07×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.07542575
- tp_price: 1.05328562
- atr:
- score: 0.79175999770972
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T07:07:27.458498
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.79175999770972
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.089
- obi_top10 : 0.089
- micro_price : 1.06919145
- spread_pct : 0.009354
- mid_price : 1.06915
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0876
- obi_top5_std : 0.0016
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7035
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.0801
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.06975
- balance_zone_mid:
1.074925
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785801600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785956400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.0669
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
44
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7918
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785952800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.06975
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6136
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1298
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00500753 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.6136
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1298
Signaux confirmants (12)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:07 | 1.06910000 | 0% |
| 2 | 15:13 | 1.06910000 | 0% |
| 3 | 15:19 | 1.06910000 | 0% |
| 4 | 15:25 | 1.06910000 | 0% |
| 5 | 15:31 | 1.06910000 | 0% |
| 6 | 15:37 | 1.06970000 | +0.056% |
| 7 | 15:43 | 1.06970000 | +0.056% |
| 8 | 16:07 | 1.06770000 | -0.131% |
| 9 | 16:13 | 1.06770000 | -0.131% |
| 10 | 16:19 | 1.06970000 | +0.056% |
| 11 | 16:25 | 1.06970000 | +0.056% |
| 12 | 16:31 | 1.06970000 | +0.056% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7035ms
Confidence avant OB :
79%
→
79%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.089
avg 0.088
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
0.089
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.0692
Micro Price
1.0692
Spread
0.0094%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0691 | 1.0754 | 1.0533 | 2.51 | 1.3239 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.0691
- Stop Loss: 1.0754
- Take Profit: 1.0533
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0754 - 1.0691 = 0.0063
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0691 - 1.0533 = 0.0158
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0158 / 0.0063 = 2.5079
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1352.061 | 100 | 1264.6722 | 14.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0063
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0063 = 1269.84
Taille de position USD = 1269.84 x 1.0691 = 1357.59
Donc, tu peux acheter 1269.84 avec un stoploss a 1.0754
Avec un position size USD de 1357.59$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1269.84 x 0.0063 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1269.84 x 0.0158 = 20.06
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.06$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1269.84
- Taille de position USD 1357.59
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.06
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5079
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.48 % | 19.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.59 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 19.98 $ | 1.48 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.2619 % | 44.44 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0691 | 1.0754 | 1.0533 | 2.51 | 1.3239 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.0691
- Stop Loss: 1.0754
- Take Profit: 1.0533
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0754 - 1.0691 = 0.0063
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0691 - 1.0533 = 0.0158
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0158 / 0.0063 = 2.5079
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.589%
(0.0063)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.187% | 0.3R | -0.225% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.225% | 0.4R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 0.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.842% | 1.4R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.600% | 4.4R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 9.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.787% | 4.7R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 10.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +3.433% | 5.8R | -0.262% | 0.4R | 13.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
Aucun commentaire.