Short Trade on VVV (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 17.18 VVV at 11.287$ per unit. Take profit: 10.1226 (10.32 %) & Stop Loss: 11.7528 (4.13 %)
05 Aug 2026 at 15:27:04
hyperliquid
VVV
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
05 Aug 2026 15:27
→ 03:25
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 11.287$
Qty 17.1766 VVV
Size 193.8722$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 10.1226 (+10.32%)
TP $ 20$
SL 11.7528 (-4.13%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.37%
/ -4.6$
MAE -3.63%
MFE +0.05%
0.0R
expires
06 Aug 03:26
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 59626)
#42 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 05/08/2026 15:00
score du 05/08/2026 15:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4026
Quality Score
0.460
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
05/08 15:16
05/08 15:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#42 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.13 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#42 / 44
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.13 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 2.60×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.44×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : bull_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_low Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low_confirmed (-1) 05/08 15:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 04/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 05/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 05/08 15:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué : 05/08 15:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4598
Score SMA
0.4898
Rank
#42
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4026
Rank Norm SMA
0.3305
Calculé le
05/08/2026 15:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3287 | r1h: -1.000% · r4h: -0.161% · r1d: -6.14% · r3d: -5.10% · ema21_slope: -0.2391% · dist_ema21: -2.659% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2934 | rs_1h: -1.071% · rs_4h: -0.682% · rs_1d: -6.93% · rs_3d: -7.33% · beta_24h: 1.173 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3720 | rvol_20: 0.66× · zscore_50: -0.118 · trend: 65.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7562 | ADX: 36.7 (trend) · Chop: 44.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.437% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.127%
(0.4658)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.364% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -1.364% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -2.986% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -3.633% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.053% | 0.0R | -3.633% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -3.633% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.04
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bear_high |
65%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.44 | bear_high | -3.54% | +0.37 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
58%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | bull_high_confirmed | +1.39% | -0.48 | 05/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
58%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | — | 0.43 | bull_medium | +1.60% | -0.40 | 05/08 15:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | weak | grind | compression | bear_medium |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | 0.42 | bull_low | +0.84% | -0.00 | 05/08 15:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 10b | — | 3.623×ATR | p43 | -0.704×ATR | p68 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 12b | — | 4.181×ATR | p73 | -0.829×ATR | p78 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 1.175×ATR | p0 | -0.152×ATR | p15 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.519×ATR | p0 | +0.263×ATR | p26 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8438
- reason: down_bo width=2.54×ATR dur=93b phase=extending
- stop_price: 11.7527502
- tp_price: 10.1226245
- atr:
- score: 0.84382750582832
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T07:26:56.430255
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84382750582832
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1113
- obi_top10 : 0.068
- micro_price : 11.30725081
- spread_pct : 0.044224
- mid_price : 11.3085
- bid_wall_price : 11.2
- bid_wall_size : 10685.36
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 11.5
- ask_wall_size : 6922.09
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1174
- obi_top5_std : 0.0038
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7041
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
11.937
- balance_zone_bottom:
11.537
- balance_zone_mid:
11.737
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785625200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1785956400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.5397
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
93
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8438
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1785927600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
11.537
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6129
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
8
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.5873
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.15750198 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
93
inside_close_ratio
0.6129
bars_since_breakout
8
distance_to_edge_atr
1.5873
Signaux confirmants (27)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:27 | 11.28700000 | 0% |
| 2 | 15:33 | 11.28700000 | 0% |
| 3 | 15:39 | 11.33100000 | +0.39% |
| 4 | 15:45 | 11.33100000 | +0.39% |
| 5 | 15:51 | 11.38300000 | +0.851% |
| 6 | 15:56 | 11.38300000 | +0.851% |
| 7 | 16:04 | 11.38300000 | +0.851% |
| 8 | 16:09 | 11.41200000 | +1.107% |
| 9 | 16:15 | 11.41200000 | +1.107% |
| 10 | 16:21 | 11.41200000 | +1.107% |
| 11 | 16:27 | 11.41200000 | +1.107% |
| 12 | 16:33 | 11.41200000 | +1.107% |
| 13 | 16:38 | 11.35200000 | +0.576% |
| 14 | 16:44 | 11.35200000 | +0.576% |
| 15 | 16:50 | 11.33000000 | +0.381% |
| 16 | 16:56 | 11.33000000 | +0.381% |
| 17 | 17:04 | 11.33000000 | +0.381% |
| 18 | 17:09 | 11.31200000 | +0.221% |
| 19 | 17:15 | 11.31200000 | +0.221% |
| 20 | 17:21 | 11.30800000 | +0.186% |
| 21 | 17:27 | 11.30800000 | +0.186% |
| 22 | 17:33 | 11.30800000 | +0.186% |
| 23 | 17:39 | 11.32500000 | +0.337% |
| 24 | 17:45 | 11.32500000 | +0.337% |
| 25 | 17:51 | 11.34400000 | +0.505% |
| 26 | 17:57 | 11.34400000 | +0.505% |
| 27 | 18:04 | 11.34400000 | +0.505% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7041ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.111
avg 0.117
± 0.004
OBI Top 10
0.068
Microstructure
Mid Price
11.3085
Micro Price
11.3073
Spread
0.0442%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
11.2000
Size
10,685.36
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
11.5000
Size
6,922.09
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.287 | 11.7528 | 10.1226 | 2.5 | 27.553 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.287
- Stop Loss: 11.7528
- Take Profit: 10.1226
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 11.7528 - 11.287 = 0.4658
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.287 - 10.1226 = 1.1644
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.1644 / 0.4658 = 2.4998
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193.8722 | 100 | 17.1766 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.4658
Taille de position = 8 / 0.4658 = 17.17
Taille de position USD = 17.17 x 11.287 = 193.8
Donc, tu peux acheter 17.17 avec un stoploss a 11.7528
Avec un position size USD de 193.8$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 17.17 x 0.4658 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 17.17 x 1.1644 = 19.99
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$
Résumé
- Taille de position 17.17
- Taille de position USD 193.8
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.99
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4998
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 10.32 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.13 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -4.6 $ | -2.37 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.6325 % | 88.02 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.287 | 11.7528 | 10.1226 | 2.5 | 27.553 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 11.287
- Stop Loss: 11.7528
- Take Profit: 10.1226
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 11.7528 - 11.287 = 0.4658
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 11.287 - 10.1226 = 1.1644
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1.1644 / 0.4658 = 2.4998
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -4.127%
(0.4658)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.364% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -1.364% | 0.3R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -2.986% | 0.7R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -3.633% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.053% | 0.0R | -3.633% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.053% | 0.0R | -3.633% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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