Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 3706.95 XPL at 0.0747$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07286 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07688 (2.88 %)
05 Aug 2026 at 18:10:03
hyperliquid
XPL
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
05 Aug 2026 18:10
→ 18:15
· 4 minutes
Position
Entry 0.07473$
Qty 3706.9473 XPL
Size 277.0053$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07286 (+2.5%)
TP $ 6.93$
SL 0.07688 (-2.88%)
SL $ 7.97$
RR 0.87
Status
win
PnL
+0.08%
/ +0.22$
MAE -1.77%
MFE +0.24%
0.1R
expires
05 Aug 18:20
Exit
rank_decay: short rank=6 <= threshold=34/44
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 59761)
#6 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 05/08/2026 18:00
score du 05/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5878
Quality Score
0.563
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.3M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
05/08 18:02
05/08 18:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#6 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#6 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.16×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.98×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.64×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_medium rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_low Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 05/08 18:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 04/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 05/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1) 05/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.50
Transition risk :
0.50
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.70
Snapshot évalué : 05/08 18:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5634
Score SMA
0.5611
Rank
#6
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5878
Rank Norm SMA
0.7018
Calculé le
05/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3370 | r1h: -1.209% · r4h: -3.383% · r1d: -4.38% · r3d: -2.68% · ema21_slope: -0.1148% · dist_ema21: -2.946% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2865 | rs_1h: -1.030% · rs_4h: -3.303% · rs_1d: -5.19% · rs_3d: -4.44% · beta_24h: 2.049 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.8792 | rvol_20: 2.61× · zscore_50: 2.343 · trend: 89.37% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7653 | ADX: 31.8 (trend) · Chop: 37.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.226% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
4h)
Initial Risk: -2.877%
(0.0022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.240% | 0.1R | -0.787% | 0.3R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.240% | 0.1R | -1.064% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.240% | 0.1R | -1.769% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.068% | 1.4R | -1.769% | 0.6R | 2.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +4.068% | 1.4R | -1.769% | 0.6R | 2.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.14
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
49%
|
noisy_chop 33% | late | — | — | 0.51 | bear_high | -3.54% | -0.85 | 04/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | near -1.0ATR | — | 0.39 | bull_high | +1.20% | -0.43 | 05/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
59%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.54 | bull_medium | +1.26% | -0.46 | 05/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
54%
|
choppy 51% | late | — | — | 0.46 | range_low | +0.45% | -0.31 | 05/08 17:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 32b | — | 6.663×ATR | p85 | -0.136×ATR | p14 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 2.929×ATR | p53 | -1.123×ATR | p91 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 7b | — | 3.198×ATR | p66 | -1.747×ATR | p97 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 16b | — | 6.927×ATR | p100 | -1.537×ATR | p93 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.07688411
- tp_price: 0.07285785
- atr: 0.00086324
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T04:10:03+00:00
Details
- rank: 44
- total: 45
- score: 0.337
- delta_2h: -0.148
- extension_atr: -2.57
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.5878
- confidence: 0.977
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07473 | 0.07688 | 0.07286 | 0.87 | 0.08646 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07473
- Stop Loss: 0.07688
- Take Profit: 0.07286
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07688 - 0.07473 = 0.00215
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07473 - 0.07286 = 0.00187
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00187 / 0.00215 = 0.8698
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 277.0053 | 100 | 3706.9473 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00215
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00215 = 3720.93
Taille de position USD = 3720.93 x 0.07473 = 278.07
Donc, tu peux acheter 3720.93 avec un stoploss a 0.07688
Avec un position size USD de 278.07$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 3720.93 x 0.00215 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 3720.93 x 0.00187 = 6.96
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 6.96$
Résumé
- Taille de position 3720.93
- Taille de position USD 278.07
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 6.96
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.8698
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 6.93 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.88 % | 7.97 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 0.22 $ | 0.08 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| 0 % | 0 % | 0 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07473 | 0.07688 | 0.07286 | 0.87 | 0.08646 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07473
- Stop Loss: 0.07688
- Take Profit: 0.07286
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07688 - 0.07473 = 0.00215
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07473 - 0.07286 = 0.00187
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00187 / 0.00215 = 0.8698
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
4h)
Initial Risk: -2.877%
(0.0022)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.240% | 0.1R | -0.787% | 0.3R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.240% | 0.1R | -1.064% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.240% | 0.1R | -1.769% | 0.6R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +4.068% | 1.4R | -1.769% | 0.6R | 2.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +4.068% | 1.4R | -1.769% | 0.6R | 2.3× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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