Short Trade on ETHFI (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1365.77 ETHFI at 0.358$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3438 (4.07 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3643 (1.65 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 05:09:18
hyperliquid
ETHFI
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 05:09
→ 17:00
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.3584$
Qty 1365.7704 ETHFI
Size 489.5194$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3438 (+4.07%)
TP $ 19.94$
SL 0.3643 (-1.65%)
SL $ 8.06$
RR 2.47
Status
win
PnL
+0.94%
/ +4.62$
MAE -1.01%
MFE +2.71%
1.7R
expires
06 Aug 17:09
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60252)
#42 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 05:00
score du 06/08/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0760
Quality Score
0.416
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 05:01
06/08 05:01
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#42 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.65 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#42 / 46
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.65 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | 4.09×ATR |
| 1d | near | 0.38×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 06/08 05:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
-2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.49
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 05:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4157
Score SMA
0.4397
Rank
#42
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0760
Rank Norm SMA
0.0927
Calculé le
06/08/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3429 | r1h: -1.538% · r4h: -0.979% · r1d: -1.60% · r3d: -10.28% · ema21_slope: -0.0319% · dist_ema21: -1.950% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.2552 | rs_1h: -1.638% · rs_4h: -1.205% · rs_1d: -2.78% · rs_3d: -14.01% · beta_24h: 0.917 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3313 | rvol_20: 1.30× · zscore_50: -0.183 · trend: -38.72% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5518 | ADX: 16.3 (weak) · Chop: 48.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.353% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.646%
(0.0059)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -0.416% | 0.3R | 3.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -1.007% | 0.6R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.712% | 1.7R | -1.007% | 0.6R | 2.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.712% | 1.7R | -2.760% | 1.7R | 1.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.28
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.62 | bear_high | -3.31% | -0.97 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.40 | bull_high | +1.22% | -0.84 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.41 | bull_low | +1.28% | -0.25 | 06/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | expansion | bear_medium_confirmed |
54%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -1.5ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.44% | -0.23 | 06/08 04:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 15b | — | 4.265×ATR | p53 | -0.912×ATR | p81 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 8b | — | 1.333×ATR | p0 | -0.417×ATR | p48 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 2.111×ATR | p32 | -1.256×ATR | p88 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 4.551×ATR | p76 | -1.573×ATR | p89 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8923
- reason: down_bo width=1.92×ATR dur=42b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)
- stop_price: 0.3642775
- tp_price: 0.34377626
- atr:
- score: 0.82226396466445
- expires_at: 2026-08-06T21:09:10.622598
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82226396466445
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.2107
- obi_top10 : -0.0113
- micro_price : 0.35749843
- spread_pct : 0.02798
- mid_price : 0.35745
- bid_wall_price : 0.352
- bid_wall_size : 248253.7
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.36
- ask_wall_size : 246667
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2268
- obi_top5_std : 0.0218
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7029
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.36817
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.35948
- balance_zone_mid:
0.363825
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785859200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786006800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.9205
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
42
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8223
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786003200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.35948
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7381
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.2343
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
12
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
10
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00452496 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
42
inside_close_ratio
0.7381
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.2343
Signaux confirmants (50)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:09 | 0.35842000 | +0.006% |
| 2 | 05:15 | 0.35842000 | +0.006% |
| 3 | 05:21 | 0.35540000 | -0.837% |
| 4 | 05:26 | 0.35540000 | -0.837% |
| 5 | 05:33 | 0.35540000 | -0.837% |
| 6 | 05:38 | 0.35486000 | -0.988% |
| 7 | 05:45 | 0.35486000 | -0.988% |
| 8 | 05:51 | 0.35484000 | -0.993% |
| 9 | 05:57 | 0.35484000 | -0.993% |
| 10 | 06:04 | 0.35484000 | -0.993% |
| 11 | 06:09 | 0.35378000 | -1.289% |
| 12 | 06:15 | 0.35378000 | -1.289% |
| 13 | 06:21 | 0.35416000 | -1.183% |
| 14 | 06:27 | 0.35416000 | -1.183% |
| 15 | 06:33 | 0.35416000 | -1.183% |
| 16 | 06:39 | 0.35607000 | -0.65% |
| 17 | 06:45 | 0.35607000 | -0.65% |
| 18 | 06:51 | 0.35575000 | -0.739% |
| 19 | 06:58 | 0.35575000 | -0.739% |
| 20 | 07:05 | 0.35575000 | -0.739% |
| 21 | 07:10 | 0.35441000 | -1.113% |
| 22 | 07:16 | 0.35441000 | -1.113% |
| 23 | 07:22 | 0.35674000 | -0.463% |
| 24 | 07:27 | 0.35674000 | -0.463% |
| 25 | 07:34 | 0.35674000 | -0.463% |
| 26 | 07:39 | 0.35724000 | -0.324% |
| 27 | 07:45 | 0.35724000 | -0.324% |
| 28 | 07:51 | 0.35786000 | -0.151% |
| 29 | 07:57 | 0.35786000 | -0.151% |
| 30 | 08:04 | 0.35786000 | -0.151% |
| 31 | 08:09 | 0.35737000 | -0.287% |
| 32 | 08:15 | 0.35737000 | -0.287% |
| 33 | 08:21 | 0.35731000 | -0.304% |
| 34 | 08:27 | 0.35731000 | -0.304% |
| 35 | 08:33 | 0.35731000 | -0.304% |
| 36 | 08:39 | 0.35793000 | -0.131% |
| 37 | 08:45 | 0.35793000 | -0.131% |
| 38 | 08:51 | 0.35734000 | -0.296% |
| 39 | 08:57 | 0.35734000 | -0.296% |
| 40 | 09:04 | 0.35734000 | -0.296% |
| 41 | 09:10 | 0.35465000 | -1.046% |
| 42 | 09:16 | 0.35465000 | -1.046% |
| 43 | 09:21 | 0.35570000 | -0.753% |
| 44 | 09:27 | 0.35570000 | -0.753% |
| 45 | 09:33 | 0.35570000 | -0.753% |
| 46 | 09:39 | 0.35611000 | -0.639% |
| 47 | 09:45 | 0.35611000 | -0.639% |
| 48 | 09:51 | 0.35767000 | -0.204% |
| 49 | 09:57 | 0.35767000 | -0.204% |
| 50 | 10:04 | 0.35767000 | -0.204% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7029ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
89%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.211
avg -0.227
± 0.022
OBI Top 10
-0.011
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3575
Micro Price
0.3575
Spread
0.0280%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3520
Size
248,253.70
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3600
Size
246,667.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3584 | 0.3643 | 0.3438 | 2.47 | 0.5828 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3584
- Stop Loss: 0.3643
- Take Profit: 0.3438
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3643 - 0.3584 = 0.0059
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3584 - 0.3438 = 0.0146
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0146 / 0.0059 = 2.4746
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 489.5194 | 100 | 1365.7704 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0059
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0059 = 1355.93
Taille de position USD = 1355.93 x 0.3584 = 485.97
Donc, tu peux acheter 1355.93 avec un stoploss a 0.3643
Avec un position size USD de 485.97$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1355.93 x 0.0059 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1355.93 x 0.0146 = 19.8
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.8$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1355.93
- Taille de position USD 485.97
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.8
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4746
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.07 % | 19.94 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.65 % | 8.06 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.62 $ | 0.94 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0073 % | 61.19 % | 7 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3584 | 0.3643 | 0.3438 | 2.47 | 0.5828 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3584
- Stop Loss: 0.3643
- Take Profit: 0.3438
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3643 - 0.3584 = 0.0059
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3584 - 0.3438 = 0.0146
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0146 / 0.0059 = 2.4746
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.646%
(0.0059)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -0.416% | 0.3R | 3.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.574% | 1.0R | -1.007% | 0.6R | 1.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.712% | 1.7R | -1.007% | 0.6R | 2.7× | 144 |
| 24h | +2.712% | 1.7R | -2.760% | 1.7R | 1.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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