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Short Trade on XPL

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06 Aug 2026 at 05:10:04 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_score)

With 2626.79 XPL at 0.0725$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07555 (4.21 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 06 Aug 2026 05:10 → 08:05 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.0725$

Qty 2626.792 XPL

Size 190.4556$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 190.44$

SL 0.07555 (-4.21%)

SL $ 8.01$

RR

Status loss PnL -1.58% / -3.01$ MAE -1.91% MFE +0.54% 0.1R expires 06 Aug 08:10 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 60262)
#30 / 46 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 05:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5786

Quality Score
0.459
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
6.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 05:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#30 / 46 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.21 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#30 / 46 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.21 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear —
4h near -1.83×ATR
1d near 0.03×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down mid OK
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bull_moderate

rules_regime : bull_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1)

Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1)

06/08 05:00

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

05/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

06/08 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

06/08 04:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_breakout_attempt
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bull expansion — -1
Tactical bull expansion — -1
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.57
Transition risk : 0.43
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.49
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 05:00 · env range_with_momentum

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.4588
Score SMA
0.5237
Rank
#30 / 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5786
Rank Norm SMA
0.6059
Calculé le
06/08/2026 05:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.2982 r1h: -1.426% · r4h: -1.522% · r1d: -7.26% · r3d: -3.06% · ema21_slope: -0.2415% · dist_ema21: -3.376%
Force Relative 25% 0.2379 rs_1h: -1.526% · rs_4h: -1.748% · rs_1d: -8.45% · rs_3d: -6.78% · beta_24h: 1.973
Volume 20% 0.4155 rvol_20: 1.04× · zscore_50: 0.429 · trend: 24.82%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.8450 ADX: 41.4 (trend) · Chop: 34.7 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.463% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -4.207% (0.0031)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.538% 0.1R -0.770% 0.2R 0.7× 12
2h +0.538% 0.1R -1.637% 0.4R 0.3× 24
3h ★ +0.538% 0.1R -1.909% 0.5R 0.3× 36
4h +0.538% 0.1R -1.909% 0.5R 0.3× 48
8h +0.538% 0.1R -3.739% 0.9R 0.1× 96
12h +0.538% 0.1R -5.614% 1.3R 0.1× 144

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.37
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate fading compression bear_high
48%
noisy_chop 34% late near 0.0ATR — 0.51 bear_high -3.31% -0.92 05/08 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate fading normal bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 35% mid near -1.8ATR — 0.40 bull_high +1.22% -0.43 06/08 04:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate balanced volatile_reversal bear_high
48%
noisy_chop 47% late — — 0.53 bull_low +1.28% -0.70 06/08 04:00
15m ↓ down transition bearish_transition moderate fading compression bear_medium
59%
noisy_chop 36% late — — 0.38 range_low +0.44% -0.15 06/08 04:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 33b — 7.259×ATR p90 -0.589×ATR p45
4h ↓ down mid 7b — 3.679×ATR p67 -0.929×ATR p82
1h ↓ down late 3b — 2.041×ATR p27 -1.537×ATR p94
15m ↓ down late 5b — 2.788×ATR p59 -1.282×ATR p88

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07555054
  2. atr: 0.00101518
  3. expires_at: 2026-08-06T12:10:04+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 46
  2. total: 47
  3. score: 0.2982
  4. confidence: 0.978

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.0725 0.07555 0.08095
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.0725
  • Stop Loss: 0.07555
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07555 - 0.0725 = 0.00305

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.0725 - = 0.0725

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0725 / 0.00305 = 23.7705

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
190.4556 100 2626.792 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00305

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00305 = 2622.95

Taille de position USD = 2622.95 x 0.0725 = 190.16

Donc, tu peux acheter 2622.95 avec un stoploss a 0.07555

Avec un position size USD de 190.16$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 2622.95 x 0.00305 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 2622.95 x 0.0725 = 190.16

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 190.16$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 2622.95
  • Taille de position USD 190.16
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 190.16
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 23.7705

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 190.44 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
4.21 % 8.01 $
PNL PNL %
-3.01 $ -1.58
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.909 % 45.38 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.0725 0.07555 0.08095
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.0725
  • Stop Loss: 0.07555
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07555 - 0.0725 = 0.00305

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.0725 - = 0.0725

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0725 / 0.00305 = 23.7705

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -4.207% (0.0031)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.538% 0.1R -0.770% 0.2R 0.7× 12
2h +0.538% 0.1R -1.637% 0.4R 0.3× 24
3h ★ +0.538% 0.1R -1.909% 0.5R 0.3× 36
4h +0.538% 0.1R -1.909% 0.5R 0.3× 48
8h +0.538% 0.1R -3.739% 0.9R 0.1× 96
12h +0.538% 0.1R -5.614% 1.3R 0.1× 144

computed 1 month ago

Commentaires

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