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Short Trade on ARB

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06 Aug 2026 at 08:10:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on ARB (momentum_rotation_score)

With 4116.48 ARB at 0.0778$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07973 (2.49 %)

ARB SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 06 Aug 2026 08:10 → 11:05 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.07779$

Qty 4116.4757 ARB

Size 320.2206$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 320.22$

SL 0.07973 (-2.49%)

SL $ 7.99$

RR

Status loss PnL -1.21% / -3.87$ MAE -1.38% MFE +0.48% 0.2R expires 06 Aug 11:10 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 60369)
#30 / 48 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 08:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5323

Quality Score
0.481
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
94 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 08:00

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#30 / 48 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.49 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#30 / 48 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
94 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.49 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h clear 1.99×ATR
4h near -0.61×ATR
1d near 0.16×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up late OK
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : bull_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1)

Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1)

06/08 08:00

Score : -2

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

05/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2)

06/08 04:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high_confirmed (+1)

06/08 07:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_breakout_attempt
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bull expansion — -1
Tactical bull expansion — -1
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.57
Transition risk : 0.43
Score contribution (this trade) -2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.49
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 08:00 · env range_with_momentum

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.4811
Score SMA
0.4927
Rank
#30 / 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5323
Rank Norm SMA
0.3783
Calculé le
06/08/2026 08:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3418 r1h: 0.362% · r4h: -2.790% · r1d: -4.06% · r3d: -3.79% · ema21_slope: -0.1233% · dist_ema21: -2.523%
Force Relative 25% 0.3381 rs_1h: 0.306% · rs_4h: -2.545% · rs_1d: -4.97% · rs_3d: -7.13% · beta_24h: 2.264
Volume 20% 0.3769 rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -0.347 · trend: 100.40%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7910 ADX: 34.9 (trend) · Chop: 24.2 (trend)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.886% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -2.494% (0.0019)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.476% 0.2R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +0.476% 0.2R -0.720% 0.3R 0.7× 24
3h ★ +0.476% 0.2R -1.376% 0.6R 0.4× 36
4h +0.476% 0.2R -1.543% 0.6R 0.3× 48
8h +0.476% 0.2R -2.005% 0.8R 0.2× 96
12h +0.476% 0.2R -2.005% 0.8R 0.2× 144

computed 1 month ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.7
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
52%
noisy_chop 40% late near 0.2ATR — 0.72 bear_high -3.31% -0.88 05/08 20:00
4h ↓ down range range moderate fading expansion bear_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 39% late near -0.6ATR — 0.64 bull_high +0.77% -0.58 06/08 04:00
1h ↓ down transition bearish_transition strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high_confirmed
51%
noisy_chop 45% late — — 0.55 bull_low +0.87% -0.39 06/08 07:00
15m ↓ down range range moderate grind expansion_after_compression bear_medium
62%
noisy_chop 48% early — — — range_low +0.07% -0.26 06/08 07:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 25b — 5.677×ATR p83 -0.277×ATR p33
4h ↓ down late 14b — 5.132×ATR p77 -2.1×ATR p98
1h ↑ up late 2b — 1.409×ATR p0 -1.782×ATR p97
15m ↓ down early 7b — 1.899×ATR p13 -0.484×ATR p49

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07973341
  2. atr: 0.0006478
  3. expires_at: 2026-08-06T15:10:05+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 46
  2. total: 49
  3. score: 0.3418
  4. confidence: 0.938

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07779 0.07973 0.1515
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07779
  • Stop Loss: 0.07973
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07973 - 0.07779 = 0.00194

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07779 - = 0.07779

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.07779 / 0.00194 = 40.0979

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
320.2206 100 4116.4757 3.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00194

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00194 = 4123.71

Taille de position USD = 4123.71 x 0.07779 = 320.78

Donc, tu peux acheter 4123.71 avec un stoploss a 0.07973

Avec un position size USD de 320.78$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 4123.71 x 0.00194 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 4123.71 x 0.07779 = 320.78

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 320.78$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 4123.71
  • Taille de position USD 320.78
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 320.78
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 40.0979

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 320.22 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
2.49 % 7.99 $
PNL PNL %
-3.87 $ -1.21
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.3112 % 52.58 % 1
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07779 0.07973 0.1515
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07779
  • Stop Loss: 0.07973
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07973 - 0.07779 = 0.00194

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07779 - = 0.07779

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.07779 / 0.00194 = 40.0979

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
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MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -2.494% (0.0019)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.476% 0.2R -0.000% 0.0R — 12
2h +0.476% 0.2R -0.720% 0.3R 0.7× 24
3h ★ +0.476% 0.2R -1.376% 0.6R 0.4× 36
4h +0.476% 0.2R -1.543% 0.6R 0.3× 48
8h +0.476% 0.2R -2.005% 0.8R 0.2× 96
12h +0.476% 0.2R -2.005% 0.8R 0.2× 144

computed 1 month ago

Commentaires

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