Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.62 TAO at 192.26$ per unit. Take profit: 179.8985 (6.43 %) & Stop Loss: 197.2046 (2.57 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 09:09:48
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 09:09
→ 21:05
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 192.26$
Qty 1.6179 TAO
Size 311.0629$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 179.8985 (+6.43%)
TP $ 20$
SL 197.2046 (-2.57%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.06%
/ -0.18$
MAE -0.95%
MFE +0.71%
0.3R
expires
06 Aug 21:09
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60441)
#10 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 09:00
score du 06/08/2026 09:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5296
Quality Score
0.548
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 09:01
06/08 09:01
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#10 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.57 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#10 / 48
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+2
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.57 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.76×ATR |
| 4h | near | 0.39×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.57×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 09:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 06/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 06/08 08:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakout_attempt
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bull | expansion | — | -1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
-1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.49
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 09:00
· env range_with_momentum
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5484
Score SMA
0.5121
Rank
#10
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5296
Rank Norm SMA
0.5257
Calculé le
06/08/2026 09:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4412 | r1h: -0.698% · r4h: -1.637% · r1d: -1.28% · r3d: 2.73% · ema21_slope: -0.0499% · dist_ema21: -1.183% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4348 | rs_1h: -0.548% · rs_4h: -1.002% · rs_1d: -1.60% · rs_3d: -0.18% · beta_24h: 1.695 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6358 | rvol_20: 2.40× · zscore_50: 0.384 · trend: 29.38% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5347 | ADX: 16.5 (weak) · Chop: 50.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.847% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.572%
(4.9446)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.276% | 0.1R | 2.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.895% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.947% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.947% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.072% | 0.4R | -1.358% | 0.5R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.47
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 31% | late | — | — | 0.59 | bear_high | -3.82% | -0.14 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | range_high |
38%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | near 0.4ATR | — | 0.69 | bull_high | +0.75% | -0.04 | 06/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | normal | range_high |
36%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.62 | range_low | +0.66% | -0.21 | 06/08 08:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | explosive | normal | bear_low_confirmed |
48%
|
noisy_chop 48% | early | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.59 | range_low | -0.11% | -0.11 | 06/08 08:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 52b | — | 10.719×ATR | p92 | -0.055×ATR | p5 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 2.288×ATR | p12 | -0.466×ATR | p52 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 7b | — | 2.568×ATR | p48 | -0.951×ATR | p79 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 2.494×ATR | p41 | -0.51×ATR | p47 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.84
- reason: down_bo width=2.25×ATR dur=38b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 197.20459427
- tp_price: 179.89851433
- atr:
- score: 0.9399921689826
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T01:09:40.708965
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.9399921689826
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1511
- obi_top10 : 0.1511
- micro_price : 191.67649131
- spread_pct : 0.020871
- mid_price : 191.67
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1851
- obi_top5_std : 0.0237
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7106
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
198.865
- balance_zone_bottom:
195.22
- balance_zone_mid:
197.0425
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785888000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786021200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.2487
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
38
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.94
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786006800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
195.22
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8684
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
4
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.8261
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 1.62094267 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
38
inside_close_ratio
0.8684
bars_since_breakout
4
distance_to_edge_atr
1.8261
Signaux confirmants (20)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:09 | 192.26000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 09:15 | 192.26000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 09:21 | 191.29000000 | -0.505% |
| 4 | 09:27 | 191.29000000 | -0.505% |
| 5 | 09:33 | 191.29000000 | -0.505% |
| 6 | 09:39 | 191.28000000 | -0.51% |
| 7 | 09:45 | 191.28000000 | -0.51% |
| 8 | 09:51 | 191.59000000 | -0.348% |
| 9 | 09:57 | 191.59000000 | -0.348% |
| 10 | 10:04 | 191.59000000 | -0.348% |
| 11 | 10:09 | 191.64000000 | -0.322% |
| 12 | 10:15 | 191.64000000 | -0.322% |
| 13 | 10:21 | 191.82000000 | -0.229% |
| 14 | 10:27 | 191.82000000 | -0.229% |
| 15 | 10:33 | 191.82000000 | -0.229% |
| 16 | 10:39 | 192.28000000 | +0.01% |
| 17 | 10:45 | 192.28000000 | +0.01% |
| 18 | 10:51 | 192.42000000 | +0.083% |
| 19 | 10:57 | 192.42000000 | +0.083% |
| 20 | 11:04 | 192.42000000 | +0.083% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7106ms
Confidence avant OB :
94%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.151
avg 0.185
± 0.024
OBI Top 10
0.151
Microstructure
Mid Price
191.6700
Micro Price
191.6765
Spread
0.0209%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192.26 | 197.2046 | 179.8985 | 2.5 | 218.12 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 192.26
- Stop Loss: 197.2046
- Take Profit: 179.8985
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 197.2046 - 192.26 = 4.9446
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 192.26 - 179.8985 = 12.3615
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 12.3615 / 4.9446 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 311.0629 | 100 | 1.6179 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 4.9446
Taille de position = 8 / 4.9446 = 1.62
Taille de position USD = 1.62 x 192.26 = 311.46
Donc, tu peux acheter 1.62 avec un stoploss a 197.2046
Avec un position size USD de 311.46$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1.62 x 4.9446 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1.62 x 12.3615 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1.62
- Taille de position USD 311.46
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.43 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.57 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.18 $ | -0.06 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9466 % | 36.81 % | 27 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192.26 | 197.2046 | 179.8985 | 2.5 | 218.12 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 192.26
- Stop Loss: 197.2046
- Take Profit: 179.8985
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 197.2046 - 192.26 = 4.9446
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 192.26 - 179.8985 = 12.3615
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 12.3615 / 4.9446 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.572%
(4.9446)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.276% | 0.1R | 2.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.895% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.947% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.707% | 0.3R | -0.947% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.072% | 0.4R | -1.358% | 0.5R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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