Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1650.67 JUP at 0.183$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1711 (6.6 %) & Stop Loss: 0.188 (2.62 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 11:45:02
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 11:45
→ 23:40
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1832$
Qty 1650.6655 JUP
Size 302.3689$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1711 (+6.6%)
TP $ 19.97$
SL 0.188 (-2.62%)
SL $ 7.92$
RR 2.52
Status
win
PnL
+0.99%
/ +2.99$
MAE -0.53%
MFE +2.06%
0.8R
expires
06 Aug 23:44
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60536)
#39 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 11:00
score du 06/08/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.4370
Quality Score
0.474
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
56 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 11:30
06/08 11:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#39 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
56 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.62 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#39 / 49
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
56 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.62 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 1.74×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bull_moderate rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : bull_low (-1) 06/08 11:00 Score : -2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 06/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 11:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4741
Score SMA
0.4907
Rank
#39
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4370
Rank Norm SMA
0.3692
Calculé le
06/08/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4159 | r1h: 0.088% · r4h: 0.225% · r1d: -3.08% · r3d: -5.32% · ema21_slope: -0.1359% · dist_ema21: -1.456% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3774 | rs_1h: -0.496% · rs_4h: -0.072% · rs_1d: -3.61% · rs_3d: -6.63% · beta_24h: 0.888 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2230 | rvol_20: 0.18× · zscore_50: -0.369 · trend: -14.28% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7360 | ADX: 28.3 (trend) · Chop: 32.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.849% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.620%
(0.0048)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.551% | 0.2R | -0.235% | 0.1R | 2.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.551% | 0.2R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.250% | 0.5R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 2.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.063% | 0.8R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.063% | 0.8R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.063% | 0.8R | -2.445% | 0.9R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 2.71
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.66 | bear_high | -3.82% | -0.62 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
53%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | — | 0.56 | bull_high | +1.37% | -0.65 | 06/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | — | — | 0.66 | bull_low | +1.08% | -0.28 | 06/08 11:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | normal | bear_low |
52%
|
noisy_chop 44% | mid | — | — | 0.55 | range_low | +0.38% | +0.03 | 06/08 11:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 35b | — | 7.295×ATR | p95 | -0.995×ATR | p81 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 26b | — | 4.935×ATR | p88 | -0.983×ATR | p84 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 1.813×ATR | p13 | -0.126×ATR | p12 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 10b | — | 3.858×ATR | p48 | +0.828×ATR | p63 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.5581
- reason: down_bo width=2.14×ATR dur=39b phase=extending|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.18802653
- tp_price: 0.17106369
- atr:
- score: 0.65814001533995
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T03:44:55.296372
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.65814001533995
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2707
- obi_top10 : 0.2678
- micro_price : 0.18294315
- spread_pct : 0.054675
- mid_price : 0.18295
- bid_wall_price : 0.182
- bid_wall_size : 1081308
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.186
- ask_wall_size : 419850
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2714
- obi_top5_std : 0.002
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6934
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.1895
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.18625
- balance_zone_mid:
0.187875
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785891600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786028400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.1449
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.6581
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786003200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.18625
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7692
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
7
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.0261
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 0.00151526 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.7692
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
2.0261
Signaux confirmants (41)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:45 | 0.18318000 | -0.011% |
| 2 | 11:51 | 0.18308000 | -0.066% |
| 3 | 11:57 | 0.18308000 | -0.066% |
| 4 | 12:04 | 0.18308000 | -0.066% |
| 5 | 12:09 | 0.18288000 | -0.175% |
| 6 | 12:15 | 0.18288000 | -0.175% |
| 7 | 12:21 | 0.18242000 | -0.426% |
| 8 | 12:27 | 0.18242000 | -0.426% |
| 9 | 12:33 | 0.18242000 | -0.426% |
| 10 | 12:39 | 0.18265000 | -0.3% |
| 11 | 12:45 | 0.18265000 | -0.3% |
| 12 | 12:51 | 0.18345000 | +0.136% |
| 13 | 12:57 | 0.18345000 | +0.136% |
| 14 | 13:04 | 0.18345000 | +0.136% |
| 15 | 13:09 | 0.18379000 | +0.322% |
| 16 | 13:15 | 0.18379000 | +0.322% |
| 17 | 13:21 | 0.18357000 | +0.202% |
| 18 | 13:27 | 0.18357000 | +0.202% |
| 19 | 13:33 | 0.18357000 | +0.202% |
| 20 | 13:39 | 0.18271000 | -0.267% |
| 21 | 13:45 | 0.18271000 | -0.267% |
| 22 | 13:51 | 0.18302000 | -0.098% |
| 23 | 13:57 | 0.18302000 | -0.098% |
| 24 | 14:04 | 0.18302000 | -0.098% |
| 25 | 14:10 | 0.18230000 | -0.491% |
| 26 | 14:16 | 0.18230000 | -0.491% |
| 27 | 14:21 | 0.18249000 | -0.388% |
| 28 | 14:27 | 0.18249000 | -0.388% |
| 29 | 14:34 | 0.18249000 | -0.388% |
| 30 | 14:39 | 0.18211000 | -0.595% |
| 31 | 14:45 | 0.18211000 | -0.595% |
| 32 | 14:51 | 0.18184000 | -0.742% |
| 33 | 14:57 | 0.18184000 | -0.742% |
| 34 | 15:04 | 0.18184000 | -0.742% |
| 35 | 15:09 | 0.18210000 | -0.6% |
| 36 | 15:15 | 0.18210000 | -0.6% |
| 37 | 16:38 | 0.18194000 | -0.688% |
| 38 | 16:44 | 0.18194000 | -0.688% |
| 39 | 17:21 | 0.18225000 | -0.519% |
| 40 | 17:26 | 0.18225000 | -0.519% |
| 41 | 17:33 | 0.18225000 | -0.519% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6934ms
Confidence avant OB :
66%
→
56%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.271
avg 0.271
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
0.268
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1830
Micro Price
0.1829
Spread
0.0547%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.1820
Size
1,081,308.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.1860
Size
419,850.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1832 | 0.188 | 0.1711 | 2.52 | 0.2174 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1832
- Stop Loss: 0.188
- Take Profit: 0.1711
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.188 - 0.1832 = 0.0048
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1832 - 0.1711 = 0.0121
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0121 / 0.0048 = 2.5208
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 302.3689 | 100 | 1650.6655 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0048
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0048 = 1666.67
Taille de position USD = 1666.67 x 0.1832 = 305.33
Donc, tu peux acheter 1666.67 avec un stoploss a 0.188
Avec un position size USD de 305.33$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1666.67 x 0.0048 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1666.67 x 0.0121 = 20.17
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.17$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1666.67
- Taille de position USD 305.33
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.17
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5208
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 6.6 % | 19.97 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.62 % | 7.92 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 2.99 $ | 0.99 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5295 % | 20.21 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1832 | 0.188 | 0.1711 | 2.52 | 0.2174 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1832
- Stop Loss: 0.188
- Take Profit: 0.1711
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.188 - 0.1832 = 0.0048
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1832 - 0.1711 = 0.0121
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0121 / 0.0048 = 2.5208
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.620%
(0.0048)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.551% | 0.2R | -0.235% | 0.1R | 2.4× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.551% | 0.2R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.250% | 0.5R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 2.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.063% | 0.8R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.063% | 0.8R | -0.530% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.063% | 0.8R | -2.445% | 0.9R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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