Short Trade on KAITO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 290.84 KAITO at 0.902$ per unit. Take profit: 0.8335 (7.62 %) & Stop Loss: 0.9298 (3.05 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 16:22:26
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 16:22
→ 04:20
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.9023$
Qty 290.8405 KAITO
Size 262.4137$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.8335 (+7.62%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 0.9298 (-3.05%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+1.71%
/ +4.48$
MAE -2.27%
MFE +1.76%
0.6R
expires
07 Aug 04:22
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60797)
#49 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 16:00
score du 06/08/2026 16:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1785
Quality Score
0.391
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 16:16
06/08 16:16
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#49 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.05 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#49 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.05 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.48×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.74×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.38×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 16:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 15:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.57
Transition risk :
0.43
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.74
Snapshot évalué : 06/08 16:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.3911
Score SMA
0.4317
Rank
#49
/ 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1785
Rank Norm SMA
0.1321
Calculé le
06/08/2026 16:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3184 | r1h: -1.893% · r4h: -0.561% · r1d: -2.23% · r3d: -1.95% · ema21_slope: -0.1776% · dist_ema21: -0.458% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3728 | rs_1h: -1.890% · rs_4h: -0.235% · rs_1d: -1.60% · rs_3d: -2.82% · beta_24h: -2.695 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1653 | rvol_20: 0.51× · zscore_50: -0.734 · trend: -40.02% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4620 | ADX: 15.6 (weak) · Chop: 58.9 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.056% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.048%
(0.0275)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.174% | 0.1R | -1.178% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.174% | 0.1R | -1.178% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.255% | 0.1R | -1.529% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.378% | 0.5R | -1.544% | 0.5R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.762% | 0.6R | -2.269% | 0.7R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.872% | 2.6R | -3.070% | 1.0R | 2.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.71
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | — | — | 0.40 | bear_high | -3.79% | +0.11 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
noisy_chop 37% | late | — | — | 0.00 | range_high | +0.60% | -0.87 | 06/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near 0.5ATR | — | -0.15 | range_low | +0.40% | -0.35 | 06/08 15:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 45% | early | — | — | 0.09 | range_low | -0.16% | -0.07 | 06/08 16:15 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 8b | — | 3.69×ATR | p40 | -0.633×ATR | p56 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 30b | — | 7.569×ATR | p100 | -0.211×ATR | p24 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 1.376×ATR | p0 | +0.072×ATR | p8 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 2.085×ATR | p13 | +0.176×ATR | p20 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8444
- reason: down_bo width=2.69×ATR dur=50b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.92976649
- tp_price: 0.83349378
- atr:
- score: 0.84442734748019
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T08:22:18.828284
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84442734748019
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0912
- obi_top10 : -0.0591
- micro_price : 0.90071494
- spread_pct : 0.055525
- mid_price : 0.90075
- bid_wall_price : 0.895
- bid_wall_size : 64056.74
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.906
- ask_wall_size : 58241.92
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.1005
- obi_top5_std : 0.018
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6843
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.951905
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.90407
- balance_zone_mid:
0.9279875
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785870000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786046400
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6889
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
50
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8444
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786042800
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.90407
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.72
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.1017
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01778987 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
50
inside_close_ratio
0.72
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.1017
Signaux confirmants (13)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:22 | 0.90226000 | -0.004% |
| 2 | 16:28 | 0.90226000 | -0.004% |
| 3 | 16:34 | 0.90226000 | -0.004% |
| 4 | 16:40 | 0.90394000 | +0.182% |
| 5 | 16:46 | 0.90394000 | +0.182% |
| 6 | 16:52 | 0.90308000 | +0.086% |
| 7 | 16:58 | 0.90308000 | +0.086% |
| 8 | 17:05 | 0.90308000 | +0.086% |
| 9 | 18:10 | 0.90250000 | +0.022% |
| 10 | 18:16 | 0.90250000 | +0.022% |
| 11 | 18:52 | 0.90368000 | +0.153% |
| 12 | 18:58 | 0.90368000 | +0.153% |
| 13 | 19:05 | 0.90368000 | +0.153% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6843ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
84%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.091
avg -0.101
± 0.018
OBI Top 10
-0.059
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.9008
Micro Price
0.9007
Spread
0.0555%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.8950
Size
64,056.74
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.9060
Size
58,241.92
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9023 | 0.9298 | 0.8335 | 2.5 | 0.3013 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9023
- Stop Loss: 0.9298
- Take Profit: 0.8335
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.9298 - 0.9023 = 0.0275
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9023 - 0.8335 = 0.0688
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0688 / 0.0275 = 2.5018
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 262.4137 | 100 | 290.8405 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0275
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0275 = 290.91
Taille de position USD = 290.91 x 0.9023 = 262.49
Donc, tu peux acheter 290.91 avec un stoploss a 0.9298
Avec un position size USD de 262.49$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 290.91 x 0.0275 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 290.91 x 0.0688 = 20.01
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$
Résumé
- Taille de position 290.91
- Taille de position USD 262.49
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.01
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5018
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.62 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.05 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.48 $ | 1.71 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2686 % | 74.43 % | 23 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9023 | 0.9298 | 0.8335 | 2.5 | 0.3013 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.9023
- Stop Loss: 0.9298
- Take Profit: 0.8335
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.9298 - 0.9023 = 0.0275
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.9023 - 0.8335 = 0.0688
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0688 / 0.0275 = 2.5018
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.048%
(0.0275)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.174% | 0.1R | -1.178% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.174% | 0.1R | -1.178% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.255% | 0.1R | -1.529% | 0.5R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.378% | 0.5R | -1.544% | 0.5R | 0.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.762% | 0.6R | -2.269% | 0.7R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +7.872% | 2.6R | -3.070% | 1.0R | 2.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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