Short Trade on JUP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1489.93 JUP at 0.182$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1691 (7.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1879 (2.96 %)
06 Aug 2026 at 17:50:57
hyperliquid
JUP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
06 Aug 2026 17:50
→ 05:30
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.1825$
Qty 1489.9327 JUP
Size 271.9276$ (margin 100$) (leverage 3)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1691 (+7.34%)
TP $ 19.97$
SL 0.1879 (-2.96%)
SL $ 8.05$
RR 2.48
Status
loss
PnL
-2.42%
/ -6.59$
MAE -2.84%
MFE +1.69%
0.6R
expires
07 Aug 05:50
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 60833)
#42 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 06/08/2026 17:00
score du 06/08/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2749
Quality Score
0.462
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
06/08 17:45
06/08 17:45
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#42 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#42 / 50
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
61 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.41×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 1.81×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 06/08 17:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 05/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 06/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 06/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4621
Score SMA
0.4852
Rank
#42
/ 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2749
Rank Norm SMA
0.3729
Calculé le
06/08/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3878 | r1h: 0.442% · r4h: -0.969% · r1d: -4.17% · r3d: -6.80% · ema21_slope: -0.1624% · dist_ema21: -1.148% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3958 | rs_1h: 0.414% · rs_4h: -0.521% · rs_1d: -3.61% · rs_3d: -7.85% · beta_24h: 1.117 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1909 | rvol_20: 0.33× · zscore_50: -0.363 · trend: -38.72% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7243 | ADX: 31.5 (trend) · Chop: 42.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.820% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.959%
(0.0054)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.685% | 0.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.688% | 0.6R | -2.838% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -2.838% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.23
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | — | — | 0.66 | bear_high | -3.79% | -0.60 | 05/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.56 | range_high | +0.69% | -0.56 | 06/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | near -0.4ATR | — | 0.66 | range_low | +0.44% | -0.23 | 06/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_low |
49%
|
noisy_chop 43% | mid | — | — | — | range_low | -0.17% | -0.01 | 06/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 35b | — | 7.17×ATR | p95 | -0.913×ATR | p75 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 28b | — | 5.555×ATR | p93 | -0.875×ATR | p79 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 4b | — | 1.15×ATR | p2 | +0.02×ATR | p2 |
| 15m | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 3.026×ATR | p27 | +1.078×ATR | p80 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.6125
- reason: down_bo width=2.45×ATR dur=43b phase=extending|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 0.18787937
- tp_price: 0.16908657
- atr:
- score: 0.71248734571394
- expires_at: 2026-08-07T09:50:49.635679
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.71248734571394
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2008
- obi_top10 : 0.2017
- micro_price : 0.18238149
- spread_pct : 0.109769
- mid_price : 0.1823
- bid_wall_price : 0.182
- bid_wall_size : 926151
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.184
- ask_wall_size : 581300
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2008
- obi_top5_std : 0.0001
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6808
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.1895
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.18597
- balance_zone_mid:
0.187735
- balance_zone_start_time:
1785898800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786050000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4451
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
43
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7125
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786003200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.18597
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6512
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
13
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
2.3966
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
9
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
2
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00144373 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
43
inside_close_ratio
0.6512
bars_since_breakout
13
distance_to_edge_atr
2.3966
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:50 | 0.18251000 | +0.005% |
| 2 | 17:57 | 0.18251000 | +0.005% |
| 3 | 18:03 | 0.18251000 | +0.005% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6808ms
Confidence avant OB :
71%
→
61%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.201
avg 0.201
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.202
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.1823
Micro Price
0.1824
Spread
0.1098%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.1820
Size
926,151.00
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.1840
Size
581,300.00
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1825 | 0.1879 | 0.1691 | 2.48 | 0.2346 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1825
- Stop Loss: 0.1879
- Take Profit: 0.1691
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1879 - 0.1825 = 0.0054
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1825 - 0.1691 = 0.0134
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0134 / 0.0054 = 2.4815
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 271.9276 | 100 | 1489.9327 | 3.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0054
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0054 = 1481.48
Taille de position USD = 1481.48 x 0.1825 = 270.37
Donc, tu peux acheter 1481.48 avec un stoploss a 0.1879
Avec un position size USD de 270.37$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1481.48 x 0.0054 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1481.48 x 0.0134 = 19.85
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.85$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1481.48
- Taille de position USD 270.37
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.85
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4815
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 7.34 % | 19.97 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.96 % | 8.05 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -6.59 $ | -2.42 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.8384 % | 95.93 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1825 | 0.1879 | 0.1691 | 2.48 | 0.2346 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.1825
- Stop Loss: 0.1879
- Take Profit: 0.1691
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1879 - 0.1825 = 0.0054
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1825 - 0.1691 = 0.0134
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0134 / 0.0054 = 2.4815
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.959%
(0.0054)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.685% | 0.2R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 48 |
| 8h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.688% | 0.6R | -2.838% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 143 |
| 24h | +1.688% | 0.6R | -2.838% | 1.0R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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