Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 10930.31 JUP at 0.187$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1859 (0.8 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1881 (0.37 %)
Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 10930.31 JUP at 0.187$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1859 (0.8 %) & Stop Loss: 0.1881 (0.37 %)
Position
Entry 0.1874$
Qty 10930.3056 JUP
Size 2047.9021$ (margin 100$) (leverage 20)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1859 (+0.8%)
TP $ 16.4$
SL 0.1881 (-0.37%)
SL $ 7.65$
RR 2.14
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3855
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | clear | 1.82×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : range_medium Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 07/08 04:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.30149 15m : 0.463551 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_medium_confirmed 5m_regime : bull_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 06/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 07/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 07/08 03:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5389 | r1h: 0.443% · r4h: 2.874% · r1d: -0.48% · r3d: -3.63% · ema21_slope: -0.0605% · dist_ema21: 1.567% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5343 | rs_1h: 0.331% · rs_4h: 2.745% · rs_1d: 0.20% · rs_3d: -4.70% · beta_24h: 1.216 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4054 | rvol_20: 1.37× · zscore_50: -0.047 · trend: 2.31% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7301 | ADX: 32.1 (trend) · Chop: 42.8 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.855% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.131% | 3.0R | -0.069% | 0.2R | 16.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.131% | 3.0R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 7.6× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.345% | 3.6R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 9.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.364% | 6.3R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 15.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.639% | 9.7R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 24.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | — | 0.65 | bear_high | -3.92% | -0.54 | 06/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.56 | range_high | +0.41% | -0.54 | 07/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | — | near 0.3ATR | 0.65 | range_low | +0.26% | +0.22 | 07/08 03:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | expansion_after_compression | bull_medium_confirmed |
62%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.11% | +0.23 | 07/08 03:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 36b | — | 7.577×ATR | p95 | -0.789×ATR | p66 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 30b | — | 4.224×ATR | p71 | +0.373×ATR | p39 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 3.985×ATR | p82 | +1.951×ATR | p98 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 8b | — | 7.59×ATR | p100 | +1.742×ATR | p94 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
64289.6
-0.000180887
64278
0.30149
64452
-0.00269972
64278
0.463551
64084.6
0.00401562
64342
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0.27
0.94
0.0805
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0.5512
0.7285
0.3497
-6.9341
3.7292
1
0
0
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 02:40:00 | 0.1816 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 03:05:00 | 0.18087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:20:00 | 0.18087 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:35:00 | 0.1817 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 04:00:00 | 0.1803 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 0.18142 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:25:00 | 0.18483 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 06:50:00 | 0.18428 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 08:00:00 | 0.18737 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 16:15:00 | 0.18219 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 0.18417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 19:30:00 | 0.18091 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 21:45:00 | 0.18252 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 23:15:00 | 0.17942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 02:00:00 | 0.18029 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 03:30:00 | 0.1817 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 04:00:00 | 0.1803 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:30:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 08:00:00 | 0.18737 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 20:00:00 | 0.19162 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-05 01:00:00 | 0.18673 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 11:00:00 | 0.18569 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-05 20:00:00 | 0.19029 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 02:00:00 | 0.18625 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 13:00:00 | 0.18063 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 17:00:00 | 0.18417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 23:00:00 | 0.17942 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 05:00:00 | 0.17961 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 07:00:00 | 0.18606 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1874 | 0.1881 | 0.1859 | 2.14 | 0.22 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1881 - 0.1874 = 0.00069999999999998
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1874 - 0.1859 = 0.0015
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0015 / 0.00069999999999998 = 2.1429
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2047.9021 | 100 | 10930.3056 | 20.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00069999999999998 = 11428.57
Taille de position USD = 11428.57 x 0.1874 = 2141.71
Donc, tu peux acheter 11428.57 avec un stoploss a 0.1881
Avec un position size USD de 2141.71$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 11428.57 x 0.00069999999999998 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 11428.57 x 0.0015 = 17.14
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 17.14$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.8 % | 16.4 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.37 % | 7.65 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 16.39 $ | 0.80 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.0694 % | 18.58 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1874 | 0.1881 | 0.1859 | 2.14 | 0.22 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.1881 - 0.1874 = 0.00069999999999998
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1874 - 0.1859 = 0.0015
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0015 / 0.00069999999999998 = 2.1429
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.131% | 3.0R | -0.069% | 0.2R | 16.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.131% | 3.0R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 7.6× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.345% | 3.6R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 9.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.364% | 6.3R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 15.8× | 96 |
| 12h | +3.639% | 9.7R | -0.149% | 0.4R | 24.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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