Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 391389.43 PENGU at 0.00633$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006375 (0.65 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006314 (0.32 %)
Long Trade on PENGU (CatchTheWave)
With 391389.43 PENGU at 0.00633$ per unit. Take profit: 0.006375 (0.65 %) & Stop Loss: 0.006314 (0.32 %)
Position
Entry 0.006334$
Qty 391389.4325 PENGU
Size 2479.0607$ (margin 100$) (leverage 25)
Risk Setup
TP 0.006375 (+0.65%)
TP $ 16.05$
SL 0.006314 (-0.32%)
SL $ 7.83$
RR 2.05
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8673
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.70×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.52×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : bull_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bull_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 08/08 17:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.103536 15m : 0.151917 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : bull_medium 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 07/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 08/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 08/08 17:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.6565 | r1h: 0.647% · r4h: 1.383% · r1d: 6.37% · r3d: 3.39% · ema21_slope: 0.1746% · dist_ema21: 2.348% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.6592 | rs_1h: 0.650% · rs_4h: 1.413% · rs_1d: 6.21% · rs_3d: 3.00% · beta_24h: 2.425 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2603 | rvol_20: 0.27× · zscore_50: -0.716 · trend: 31.03% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.8147 | ADX: 44.6 (trend) · Chop: 45.2 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.878% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.253% | 0.8R | -0.426% | 1.4R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.253% | 0.8R | -1.058% | 3.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.284% | 0.9R | -1.058% | 3.4R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.284% | 0.9R | -1.500% | 4.8R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.632% | 2.0R | -1.500% | 4.8R | 0.4× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | pullback | bear_trend | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.74 | bear_high | -2.76% | +0.21 | 07/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | — | near -0.7ATR | 0.66 | bull_medium | +1.31% | +0.29 | 08/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bull_high |
66%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.57 | range_low | +0.68% | +0.39 | 08/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bull_medium |
63%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | near -0.5ATR | — | — | range_low | +0.11% | +0.11 | 08/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 35b | — | 1.979×ATR | p0 | +0.569×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↑ up | late | 12b | — | 3.781×ATR | p65 | +1.284×ATR | p92 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 12b | — | 3.445×ATR | p65 | +0.905×ATR | p77 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 2.261×ATR | p18 | -0.189×ATR | p19 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
65029.1
-0.00029521
65010
0.103536
64995.9
0.000200602
65009
0.151917
64691.5
0.00524658
65031
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0.006167
187
0.7303
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0.2232
0.4467
0.3984
0.4962
0.7433
0.6446
0.8564
0.6652
0.8574
0.2089
0.1295
1
1.6181
2.9641
0.45
0.55
1
15
1
0.5536
0.5777
6.2124
0.5
0.3984
2.475
2.9641
0.375
0.3473
0.88
0.1926
0.4756
0.4992
0.9336
0.8574
-1.1853
7.1287
1
1
1
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:51 | 0.00633400 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:45 | 0.00631800 | -0.253% |
Market Structure Score: 3
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 16:05:00 | 0.006278 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 16:50:00 | 0.006278 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 17:35:00 | 0.006321 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 18:05:00 | 0.006284 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 18:25:00 | 0.006284 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 18:45:00 | 0.006404 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 19:30:00 | 0.006322 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 19:35:00 | 0.006366 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:00:00 | 0.006417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:50:00 | 0.006334 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 06:15:00 | 0.006312 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 09:30:00 | 0.006167 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 11:45:00 | 0.00624 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 12:15:00 | 0.00624 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 13:00:00 | 0.006202 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 15:00:00 | 0.006343 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 16:45:00 | 0.006278 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 18:45:00 | 0.006404 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:00:00 | 0.006417 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:45:00 | 0.006337 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 13:00:00 | 0.005991 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 00:00:00 | 0.006372 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 07:00:00 | 0.006328 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 13:00:00 | 0.00608 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-06 15:00:00 | 0.006206 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-06 21:00:00 | 0.005919 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-07 06:00:00 | 0.006097 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-07 17:00:00 | 0.005948 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-08 06:00:00 | 0.006312 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-08 21:00:00 | 0.006417 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006334 | 0.006314 | 0.006375 | 2.05 | 0.009453 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006314 - 0.006334 = -2.0E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006334 - 0.006375 = -4.0999999999999E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -4.0999999999999E-5 / -2.0E-5 = 2.05
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2479.0607 | 100 | 391389.4325 | 25.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -2.0E-5 = -400000
Taille de position USD = -400000 x 0.006334 = -2533.6
Donc, tu peux acheter -400000 avec un stoploss a 0.006314
Avec un position size USD de -2533.6$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -400000 x -2.0E-5 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -400000 x -4.0999999999999E-5 = 16.4
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16.4$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.65 % | 16.05 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.32 % | 7.83 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.83 $ | -0.32 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3947 % | 124.98 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.006334 | 0.006314 | 0.006375 | 2.05 | 0.009453 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.006314 - 0.006334 = -2.0E-5
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.006334 - 0.006375 = -4.0999999999999E-5
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -4.0999999999999E-5 / -2.0E-5 = 2.05
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.253% | 0.8R | -0.426% | 1.4R | 0.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.253% | 0.8R | -1.058% | 3.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.284% | 0.9R | -1.058% | 3.4R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.284% | 0.9R | -1.500% | 4.8R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.632% | 2.0R | -1.500% | 4.8R | 0.4× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
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