done

2026-10-30

(UTC)

Day dominated by 1h bear bias with alternating breadth phases; mixed strategy outcomes concentrated by phase.

Regime snapshots

96/96

Phases detected

Trades (W/L)

278 (140/138)

Win rate 50.4%

PnL sum (theoretical)

-19.25

Executive summary

Market: Market stayed 1h-bear throughout the UTC day with episodic breadth recoveries and alt-led participation; breadth opened very weak and closed materially stronger.

Perf: TNT universe showed concentration: a few regime-specific winners offset broad losses in momentum short buckets; several strategies produced large theoretical PnL swings (fees/funding not included).

1h BTC bias remained 'bear' for the entire day while breadth oscillated between capitulation, recovery and expansion.
BalanceBreakoutRegime (short) and a few rotation long pockets produced the largest theoretical PnL contributions, concentrated in a small set of phases.
Momentum short families (momentum_rotation_score / momentum_rotation_v2) netted negative theoretical PnL overall, with losses concentrated in contraction-type phases.
Multiple strategies show outcome sensitivity to phase labels (example: strong short performance in 'unknown_phase' vs poor performance in P5/P7).

Market phases (8)

Phase	Start	End	Duration	BTC bias 1h	Breadth state	Participation	Mean breadth	Max transition risk
P1_bear_stable_alt_capitulation	00:01:51+00:00	02:01:59+00:00	135 min	bear	stable	alt_capitulation	0.140	0.330
P2_bear_recovering_mixed_dispersion	02:17:01+00:00	04:31:51+00:00	150 min	bear	recovering	mixed_dispersion	0.360	0.330
P3_bear_expanding_alt_rotation	04:46:33+00:00	06:01:53+00:00	90 min	bear	expanding	alt_rotation	0.636	0.330
P4_bear_stable_alt_rotation	06:17:12+00:00	08:01:53+00:00	120 min	bear	stable	alt_rotation	0.627	0.330
P5_bear_contraction	08:17:10+00:00	11:01:48+00:00	180 min	bear	deteriorating	mixed_dispersion	0.381	0.330
P6_bear_expanding_mixed_dispersion	11:16:57+00:00	13:31:40+00:00	150 min	bear	expanding	mixed_dispersion	0.585	0.330
P7_bear_contraction	13:46:34+00:00	21:16:56+00:00	465 min	bear	deteriorating	mixed_dispersion	0.423	0.330
P8_bear_expanding_alt_rotation	21:31:34+00:00	23:46:36+00:00	150 min	bear	expanding	alt_rotation	0.725	0.330

The day was uniform on the BTC 1h axis (bear throughout) while breadth and participation cycled through distinct regimes. Breadth opened at a low 0.0694, climbed through a sequence of recovering → expanding pockets in the early UTC hours, then spent the bulk of the day in deteriorating/contraction states before a late expansion into alt-rotation that coincided with a stronger close breadth (close 0.7525). Participation shifted between alt_capitulation, mixed_dispersion and alt_rotation; leadership was dominated by alts. Multi-timeframe alignment stayed moderate (mtf mean ~0.57). Overall, the day presented alternating risk-off-looking BTC bias with intermittent pockets of broad alt strength.

Transitions

2026-10-30T02:17 — P1_bear_stable_alt_capitulation → P2_bear_recovering_mixed_dispersion : btc_bias_1h remained 'bear'; breadth_state moved from 'stable' to 'recovering' (mean_breadth_score rose ~0.14→0.36); participation_state moved from 'alt_capitulation' to 'mixed_dispersion'.
2026-10-30T04:46 — P2_bear_recovering_mixed_dispersion → P3_bear_expanding_alt_rotation : btc_bias_1h stayed 'bear'; breadth_state shifted 'recovering'→'expanding' (mean_breadth_score rose ~0.36→0.64); participation_state shifted to 'alt_rotation'.
2026-10-30T06:17 — P3_bear_expanding_alt_rotation → P4_bear_stable_alt_rotation : btc_bias_1h unchanged ('bear'); breadth_state moved 'expanding'→'stable' (small negative delta_breadth); participation_state remained 'alt_rotation'.
2026-10-30T08:17 — P4_bear_stable_alt_rotation → P5_bear_contraction : btc_bias_1h still 'bear'; breadth_state shifted 'stable'→'deteriorating' (mean_delta_breadth turned negative); participation_state shifted from 'alt_rotation'→'mixed_dispersion'.
2026-10-30T11:16 — P5_bear_contraction → P6_bear_expanding_mixed_dispersion : btc_bias_1h unchanged; breadth_state moved 'deteriorating'→'expanding' (mean_breadth_score rose ~0.38→0.58); participation_state returned to 'mixed_dispersion'.
2026-10-30T13:46 — P6_bear_expanding_mixed_dispersion → P7_bear_contraction : btc_bias_1h constant; breadth_state flipped 'expanding'→'deteriorating' (mean_delta_breadth fell toward neutral/negative); participation_state stayed 'mixed_dispersion'.
2026-10-30T21:31 — P7_bear_contraction → P8_bear_expanding_alt_rotation : btc_bias_1h remained 'bear'; breadth_state moved 'deteriorating'→'expanding' late in the day (breadth_score climbed to ~0.725); participation_state shifted from 'mixed_dispersion'→'alt_rotation'.

Strategy performance analysis

CatchTheWave long neutral

Evidence: 19 trades, win_rate 42.11%, theoretical pnl_amount_sum 40.3187 (Trade.pnl_amount). Median pnl_pct -0.622; best/worst trade +2.564%/-1.262%. PnL values are theoretical; fees and funding not included.

Caveats: Outcome shows mixed distribution (median negative, positive aggregate). Watch for winner concentration and skew; no low sample size caveat.

BalanceBreakoutRegime short positive

Evidence: 38 trades, win_rate 57.89%, theoretical pnl_amount_sum 36.9393 (Trade.pnl_amount). Mean pnl_pct 0.592; long mean duration (615 min) and many time-expired exits (25). PnL values are theoretical; fees/funding not included.

Caveats: Outcomes occurred with long mean durations and many time-expired exits; consider duration-concentration when interpreting performance.

momentum_rotation_v2 long positive

Evidence: 67 trades, win_rate 65.67%, theoretical pnl_amount_sum 20.4399 (Trade.pnl_amount). Mean pnl_pct 0.487; best/worst +2.551%/-10.848% indicate occasional large losers. PnL values are theoretical; fees/funding not included.

Caveats: Presence of large negative outliers (worst trade -10.848%) skews aggregate; position-level risk concentration noted.

CatchTheWave short neutral

Evidence: 4 trades, win_rate 50.00%, theoretical pnl_amount_sum 15.925 (Trade.pnl_amount). Mean pnl_pct 0.444; best/worst +1.638%/-0.861%. PnL values are theoretical; fees/funding not included.