Observation #12017

← Research Observations / #12017

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-02 02:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

01:00–02:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

02:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

03:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$85,972.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $2,593,883,124

Synced: 10-02 03:15 +1.3h

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* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationbroad_risk_on

Leadershipalts

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.776

evaluated_at: 2026-10-02 01:46:09 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00032375

Settled at: 2026-10-02 02:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)34,497.24

OI (USD)$2,964,830,552

Mark price$85,944.00

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$2,583,536,500

Snapshot at: 2026-10-02 01:55:06

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -1.847%

Change 4h -0.765%

Change 24h -0.780%

Z-score 7d -1.78

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.001010%

Percentile 7d 100.0% top

Percentile 30d 97.2%

Δ 4h +0.000542%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↓ Price ↑ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h +1.291%

Divergence 2.33 fort

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

1.204

OI / Vol z-7d

-0.53

OI momentum 4h

-0.253%

Funding +ratio 24h

92.0%

Sign streak

Time: 2026-10-02 01:00:00 OI observed: 00:55:03 (5min ago) Funding at: 01:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #197472	fresh	6h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.604	normal	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 37%	mid 16b 1.1ATR	—	—	0.81	49%	↔ +0.10	above_value	+1.86	—	#105765	—	—	—	—	30/09 20:00 upd 01/10 20:15	↗
4h #199116	fresh	2h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.535	normal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 39%	mid 4b 1.4ATR	—	near 0.2ATR	0.57	30%	↔ +0.06	above_value	+2.70	—	#106309	—	—	—	—	01/10 20:00 upd 02/10 00:05	↗
1h anchor #199955	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	0.371	expansion	bull_medium_confirmed	62%	noisy_chop 48%	late 8b 2.9ATR	—	near 0.4ATR	0.76	62%	↔ -0.07	above_value	+5.26	—	#106701	—	—	—	—	02/10 01:00 upd 02/10 02:05	↗
15m #199884	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.836	volatile_reversal	bull_low	39%	noisy_chop 48%	mid 5b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.34	33%	↑ +0.76	above_value	+5.26	—	#106701	—	—	—	—	02/10 01:45 upd 02/10 02:00	↗
5m #199883	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.552	normal	range_low	41%	noisy_chop 42%	mid 13b -1.0ATR	—	—	0.11	19%	↓ -0.80	above_value	+5.26	—	#106701	—	—	—	—	02/10 01:55 upd 02/10 02:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #171441	fresh	2026-10-02 01:00	0s	0.595	0.561	19/76	2026-10-02 02:00	2026-10-02 02:35
4h #171288	fresh	2026-10-01 20:00	2h	0.532	0.575	19/78	2026-10-02 00:00	2026-10-02 00:37
1d #170898	fresh	2026-09-30 20:00	6h	0.616	0.707	19/77	2026-10-01 20:00	2026-10-01 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #106778	fresh	2026-10-02 01:45	0s	$84,738.51	$85,097.03	$83,475.93	lvn LVN	4.23	5.56
7d #106855	fresh	2026-10-02 01:00	0s	$84,010.01	$84,568.40	$83,163.43	lvn LVN	3.79	2.71
30d #106545	fresh	2026-10-01 20:00	2h	$84,067.17	$87,471.00	$78,045.00	value	1.30	10.65

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$83,133.00 → $83,288.88	0.19%	0.53	0.76	continuation_down	✓	↑ $2,683.13	+9.20
inside	$85,595.83 → $86,250.50	0.76%	2.24	0.69	continuation_up	✓	inside	+0.00

Prix observé : $85,972.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
inside	$85,649.15 → $86,874.00	1.42%	2.36	0.90	continuation_up	✓	inside	+0.00

Prix observé : $85,972.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$74,903.00 → $75,531.40	0.84%	0.71	0.60	continuation_down	✓	↑ $10,440.60	+11.80
above	$81,605.93 → $82,862.73	1.53%	1.42	0.70	reversion	✓	↑ $3,109.27	+3.51
below	$86,633.13 → $87,471.00	0.96%	0.95	0.76	continuation_up	✓	↓ $661.13	-0.75

Prix observé : $85,972.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	02:05	02:20	-0.07%	-0.12×	+0.07×	-0.33×	10m	5m	Low first	0.70	0.00%	-0.07%	15.20%	0.23%	$19.71M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	02:05	03:05	-0.15%	-0.26×	+0.10×	-0.33×	30m	5m	Low first	0.33	0.00%	-0.15%	16.92%	0.25%	$43.47M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	02:05	06:05	+0.46%	+0.80×	+1.20×	-0.56×	2h15m	1h40m	Low first	0.15	0.00%	+0.46%	27.28%	1.02%	$368.07M	04:15 / —	— / —	—	100%
12h	computed	02:05	14:05	-1.34%	-2.31×	+2.45×	-3.03×	6h30m	11h40m	High first	0.09	0.00%	-1.34%	45.78%	3.17%	$2.18B	04:15 / 08:30	10:50 / 12:40	—	100%
1d	computed	02:05	02:05	-1.63%	-2.82×	+2.45×	-4.35×	6h30m	12h45m	High first	0.08	0.00%	-1.63%	36.47%	3.94%	$2.87B	04:15 / 08:30	10:50 / 12:40	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T05:46:09+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 831,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T05:55:06+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 294,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-02T05:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}