Observation #15770

← Research Observations / #15770

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-04 03:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

02:00–03:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

03:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

04:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$84,995.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $477,554,553

Synced: 10-04 04:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-04 02:00) Next (10-04 04:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationbroad_risk_on

Leadershipalts

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.6963

evaluated_at: 2026-10-04 02:46:02 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00032950

Settled at: 2026-10-04 03:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)37,112.75

OI (USD)$3,156,127,843

Mark price$85,041.60

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$414,618,602

Snapshot at: 2026-10-04 02:55:04

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h +0.040%

Change 4h +0.122%

Change 24h +0.923%

Z-score 7d 0.03

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.000933%

Percentile 7d 100.0% top

Percentile 30d 97.2%

Δ 4h +0.000399%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↑ Price ↑ · OI ↑

Price Δ 4h +0.257%

Divergence 0.32

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

7.677

OI / Vol z-7d

4.08 extrême

OI momentum 4h

-0.151%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+55 crowded

Time: 2026-10-04 02:00:00 OI observed: 01:55:04 (5min ago) Funding at: 02:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #217267	fresh	7h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.604	normal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 18b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.17	2%	↓ -0.37	above_value	+5.56	—	#114235	—	—	—	—	02/10 20:00 upd 03/10 20:15	↗
4h #218593	fresh	3h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.725	compression	bull_high	61%	noisy_chop 41%	mid 9b 0.3ATR	near 0.4ATR	—	0.11	1%	↓ -0.78	above_value	+6.49	—	#114698	—	—	—	—	03/10 20:00 upd 04/10 00:05	↗
1h anchor #219634	fresh	0s	↑ up	range	range	strong	fading	0.488	compression	range_low	38%	noisy_chop 41%	late 9b 1.4ATR	—	near -1.7ATR	0.84	12%	↓ -0.61	value	+8.02	—	#115156	—	—	—	—	04/10 02:00 upd 04/10 03:05	↗
15m #219575	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.626	expansion_after_compression	range_low	45%	noisy_chop 47%	late 1b 2.9ATR	—	near 0.0ATR	2.48	52%	↑ +0.17	value	+8.02	—	#115156	—	—	—	—	04/10 02:45 upd 04/10 03:00	↗
5m #219574	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.858	volatile_reversal	range_low	39%	noisy_chop 50%	mid 6b 1.8ATR	—	—	1.78	77%	↑ +0.76	value	+8.02	—	#115156	—	—	—	—	04/10 02:55 upd 04/10 03:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #176258	fresh	2026-10-04 02:00	0s	0.447	0.518	58/67	2026-10-04 03:00	2026-10-04 03:35
4h #176059	fresh	2026-10-03 20:00	3h	0.508	0.543	22/66	2026-10-04 00:00	2026-10-04 00:37
1d #175730	fresh	2026-10-02 20:00	7h	0.560	0.674	26/66	2026-10-03 20:00	2026-10-03 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #115222	fresh	2026-10-04 02:45	0s	$84,805.20	$84,899.80	$84,671.00	lvn LVN	3.35	4.04
7d #115288	fresh	2026-10-04 02:00	0s	$83,585.38	$84,893.00	$83,058.43	between	8.53	11.10
30d #114893	fresh	2026-10-03 20:00	3h	$84,067.17	$87,471.00	$78,359.20	hvn	1.03	13.22

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
inside	$84,987.80 → $85,045.00	0.07%	1.01	0.83	continuation_up	✓	inside	+0.00

Prix observé : $84,995.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$82,551.00 → $82,785.20	0.28%	1.42	0.75	continuation_down	✓	↑ $2,209.80	+13.37
below	$85,634.63 → $86,024.97	0.45%	2.36	0.69	continuation_up	✓	↓ $639.63	-3.87
below	$86,688.53 → $87,235.00	0.63%	3.31	0.73	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,693.53	-10.25

Prix observé : $84,995.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$74,903.00 → $75,426.67	0.70%	0.76	0.62	continuation_down	✓	↑ $9,568.33	+13.88
above	$80,034.93 → $80,558.60	0.65%	0.76	0.49	reversion	—	↑ $4,436.40	+6.44
above	$81,501.20 → $82,862.73	1.66%	1.98	0.74	reversion	✓	↑ $2,132.27	+3.09
below	$86,737.87 → $87,471.00	0.84%	1.06	0.69	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,742.87	-2.53

Prix observé : $84,995.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	03:05	03:20	-0.10%	-0.52×	0.00×	-0.53×	5m	15m	Low first	1.00	0.00%	-0.10%	5.40%	0.10%	$1.56M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	03:05	04:05	+0.14%	+0.70×	+1.03×	-0.56×	1h	30m	Low first	0.28	0.00%	+0.14%	16.23%	0.31%	$63.10M	04:00 / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	03:05	07:05	+0.24%	+1.21×	+2.52×	-0.56×	3h15m	30m	Low first	0.13	0.00%	+0.24%	15.81%	0.60%	$222.31M	04:00 / 06:15	— / —	—	100%
12h	computed	03:05	15:05	+0.46%	+2.33×	+2.84×	-0.56×	8h20m	30m	Low first	0.09	0.00%	+0.46%	15.98%	0.67%	$443.64M	04:00 / 06:15	— / —	—	100%
1d	computed	03:05	03:05	+1.50%	+7.66×	+12.00×	-0.56×	18h25m	30m	Low first	0.09	0.00%	+1.50%	27.32%	2.46%	$1.98B	04:00 / 06:15	— / —	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T06:46:02+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 838,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T07:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T06:55:04+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 296,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}