Observation #16439

← Research Observations / #16439

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-04 13:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

12:00–13:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

13:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

14:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$85,351.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $601,402,720

Synced: 10-04 14:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-04 12:00) Next (10-04 14:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationbroad_risk_on

Leadershipalts

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.6423

evaluated_at: 2026-10-04 12:45:58 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00022748

Settled at: 2026-10-04 13:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)37,877.31

OI (USD)$3,232,184,163

Mark price$85,333.00

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$640,865,705

Snapshot at: 2026-10-04 12:55:05

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.220%

Change 4h +0.184%

Change 24h +3.135%

Z-score 7d -0.21

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.001148%

Percentile 7d 100.0% top

Percentile 30d 97.2%

Δ 4h 0.000000%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↑ Price ↑ · OI ↑

Price Δ 4h +0.280%

Divergence 0.31

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

5.171

OI / Vol z-7d

1.83

OI momentum 4h

-1.709%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+65 crowded

Time: 2026-10-04 12:00:00 OI observed: 11:55:03 (5min ago) Funding at: 12:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #217267	fresh	17h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.604	normal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 18b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.17	2%	↓ -0.37	above_value	+5.56	—	#114235	—	—	—	—	02/10 20:00 upd 03/10 20:15	↗
4h #222767	fresh	1h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.858	compression	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 45%	early 11b 0.9ATR	—	near -0.2ATR	0.42	15%	↓ -0.81	above_value	+9.19	—	#116506	—	—	—	—	04/10 08:00 upd 04/10 12:05	↗
1h anchor #223155	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	0.503	expansion_after_compression	range_low	42%	noisy_chop 41%	late 1b 1.6ATR	—	near -0.4ATR	1.28	28%	↑ +0.67	above_value	+8.81	—	#116637	—	—	—	—	04/10 12:00 upd 04/10 13:05	↗
15m #223095	fresh	0s	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.716	volatile_reversal	range_low	34%	noisy_chop 37%	mid 3b 0.9ATR	—	near 0.3ATR	0.60	56%	↓ -0.23	above_value	+8.81	—	#116637	—	—	—	—	04/10 12:45 upd 04/10 13:00	↗
5m #223094	fresh	0s	↑ up	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.656	compression	range_low	41%	noisy_chop 46%	mid 10b 1.1ATR	—	near -0.5ATR	0.48	48%	↑ +0.19	above_value	+8.81	—	#116637	—	—	—	—	04/10 12:55 upd 04/10 13:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #177136	fresh	2026-10-04 12:00	0s	0.521	0.527	41/66	2026-10-04 13:00	2026-10-04 13:35
4h #177068	fresh	2026-10-04 08:00	1h	0.514	0.535	30/66	2026-10-04 12:00	2026-10-04 12:37
1d #175730	fresh	2026-10-02 20:00	17h	0.560	0.674	26/66	2026-10-03 20:00	2026-10-03 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #116765	fresh	2026-10-04 12:45	0s	$85,262.61	$85,415.85	$84,928.63	value	0.82	4.53
7d #116831	fresh	2026-10-04 12:00	0s	$83,585.38	$84,893.00	$82,980.37	between	9.19	9.96
30d #116701	fresh	2026-10-04 08:00	1h	$84,067.17	$87,471.00	$78,254.47	value	1.89	14.93

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$84,520.00 → $84,669.31	0.18%	1.39	0.89	continuation_down	✓	↑ $681.69	+6.34
below	$85,400.13 → $85,463.00	0.07%	0.58	0.81	continuation_up	✓	↓ $49.1333	-0.46

Prix observé : $85,351.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$82,551.00 → $82,785.20	0.28%	1.22	0.75	continuation_down	✓	↑ $2,565.80	+13.36
below	$85,634.63 → $86,024.97	0.45%	2.03	0.69	continuation_up	✓	↓ $283.63	-1.48
below	$86,688.53 → $87,235.00	0.63%	2.85	0.73	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,337.53	-6.96

Prix observé : $85,351.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$74,903.00 → $75,426.67	0.70%	0.85	0.61	continuation_down	✓	↑ $9,924.33	+16.08
above	$80,034.93 → $80,768.07	0.91%	1.19	0.60	reversion	✓	↑ $4,582.93	+7.42
above	$81,501.20 → $82,758.00	1.53%	2.04	0.75	reversion	✓	↑ $2,593.00	+4.20
below	$86,842.60 → $87,471.00	0.72%	1.02	0.73	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,491.60	-2.42

Prix observé : $85,351.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	13:05	13:20	-0.08%	-0.36×	+0.03×	-0.40×	5m	10m	High first	1.00	0.00%	-0.08%	7.79%	0.09%	$4.10M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	13:05	14:05	-0.07%	-0.32×	+0.35×	-0.46×	45m	55m	High first	0.17	0.00%	-0.07%	16.14%	0.18%	$17.01M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	13:05	17:05	+0.51%	+2.30×	+2.64×	-0.50×	4h	1h25m	Low first	0.31	0.00%	+0.51%	16.26%	0.70%	$142.51M	16:35 / 16:40	— / —	—	100%
12h	computed	13:05	01:05	+0.12%	+0.56×	+8.52×	-0.50×	8h25m	1h25m	Low first	0.01	0.00%	+0.12%	33.04%	2.00%	$1.26B	16:35 / 16:40	— / —	—	100%
1d	computed	13:05	13:05	-0.19%	-0.88×	+8.52×	-2.25×	8h25m	23h20m	High first	0.01	0.00%	-0.19%	37.64%	2.39%	$2.67B	16:35 / 16:40	11:40 / 12:20	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T16:45:58+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 842,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T17:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T16:55:05+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 295,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T16:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}