Observation #16830

← Research Observations / #16830

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-04 19:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

18:00–19:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

19:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

20:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$86,419.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $1,077,352,778

Synced: 10-04 20:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-04 18:00) Next (10-04 20:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationbtc_led_risk_on

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.5397

evaluated_at: 2026-10-04 18:45:59 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00016082

Settled at: 2026-10-04 19:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)37,894.16

OI (USD)$3,274,775,615

Mark price$86,419.00

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$953,038,982

Snapshot at: 2026-10-04 18:55:04

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h +0.341%

Change 4h +0.289%

Change 24h +2.931%

Z-score 7d 0.32

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.001193%

Percentile 7d 100.0% top

Percentile 30d 97.2%

Δ 4h 0.000000%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↑ Price ↑ · OI ↑

Price Δ 4h +1.285%

Divergence 1.76

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

4.380

OI / Vol z-7d

1.26

OI momentum 4h

+0.684%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+71 crowded

Time: 2026-10-04 18:00:00 OI observed: 17:55:04 (5min ago) Funding at: 18:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #217267	fresh	23h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.604	normal	bull_high	59%	noisy_chop 36%	mid 18b 0.9ATR	—	—	0.17	2%	↓ -0.37	above_value	+5.56	—	#114235	—	—	—	—	02/10 20:00 upd 03/10 20:15	↗
4h #224116	fresh	3h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.728	compression	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 43%	mid 12b 1.1ATR	—	near -0.4ATR	0.22	4%	↓ -0.83	above_value	+9.61	—	#117088	—	—	—	—	04/10 12:00 upd 04/10 16:05	↗
1h anchor #225155	fresh	0s	↑ up	range	bullish_transition	moderate	explosive	0.571	expansion_after_compression	bull_low_confirmed	49%	choppy 50%	late 6b 3.8ATR	—	near -0.6ATR	4.55	93%	↑ +0.74	above_value	+10.60	—	#117546	—	—	—	—	04/10 18:00 upd 04/10 19:05	↗
15m #225096	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.748	volatile_reversal	bull_low_confirmed	38%	choppy 48%	late 2b 2.6ATR	—	—	0.66	88%	↑ +0.94	above_value	+10.60	—	#117546	—	—	—	—	04/10 18:45 upd 04/10 19:00	↗
5m #225095	fresh	0s	↑ up	early_expansion	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.832	expansion_after_compression	bull_low	54%	noisy_chop 45%	early 8b 1.2ATR	—	—	0.09	32%	↓ -0.29	above_value	+10.60	—	#117546	—	—	—	—	04/10 18:55 upd 04/10 19:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #177595	fresh	2026-10-04 18:00	0s	0.715	0.579	6/66	2026-10-04 19:00	2026-10-04 19:35
4h #177398	fresh	2026-10-04 12:00	3h	0.515	0.542	36/66	2026-10-04 16:00	2026-10-04 16:37
1d #175730	fresh	2026-10-02 20:00	23h	0.560	0.674	26/66	2026-10-03 20:00	2026-10-03 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #117611	fresh	2026-10-04 18:45	0s	$85,251.98	$85,856.05	$84,681.00	between	6.06	6.10
7d #117676	fresh	2026-10-04 18:00	0s	$83,585.38	$84,932.03	$82,863.27	between	11.04	8.06
30d #117285	fresh	2026-10-04 12:00	3h	$84,067.17	$87,471.00	$78,254.47	value	2.16	15.35

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$85,508.50 → $85,707.10	0.23%	1.03	0.72	continuation_up	✓	↑ $711.90	+3.70
above	$86,071.20 → $86,187.05	0.13%	0.60	0.71	continuation_up	✓	↑ $231.95	+1.20
below	$86,501.50 → $86,667.00	0.19%	0.86	0.57	continuation_up	✓	↓ $82.5000	-0.43

Prix observé : $86,419.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$82,551.00 → $82,824.23	0.33%	1.06	0.72	continuation_down	✓	↑ $3,594.77	+14.01
above	$85,556.57 → $85,868.83	0.36%	1.22	0.57	continuation_up	✓	↑ $550.17	+2.14
below	$86,649.50 → $87,235.00	0.67%	2.28	0.71	continuation_up	✓	↓ $230.50	-0.90

Prix observé : $86,419.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$74,903.00 → $75,426.67	0.70%	0.87	0.61	continuation_down	✓	↑ $10,992.33	+18.30
above	$80,034.93 → $80,768.07	0.91%	1.22	0.60	reversion	✓	↑ $5,650.93	+9.41
above	$81,501.20 → $82,758.00	1.53%	2.09	0.75	reversion	✓	↑ $3,661.00	+6.10
below	$86,842.60 → $87,471.00	0.72%	1.05	0.73	continuation_up	✓	↓ $423.60	-0.71

Prix observé : $86,419.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	19:05	19:20	+0.14%	+0.44×	+0.71×	-0.08×	15m	5m	Low first	1.00	0.00%	+0.14%	17.48%	0.25%	$32.37M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	19:05	20:05	-0.07%	-0.22×	+1.22×	-0.61×	25m	1h	High first	0.08	0.00%	-0.07%	29.76%	0.57%	$128.48M	19:25 / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	19:05	23:05	+0.00%	+0.00×	+1.94×	-1.12×	2h25m	1h30m	Low first	0.00	0.00%	+0.00%	36.71%	0.95%	$480.55M	19:25 / —	20:30 / —	—	100%
12h	computed	19:05	07:05	-0.65%	-2.09×	+1.94×	-4.08×	2h25m	6h20m	High first	0.06	0.00%	-0.65%	32.50%	1.87%	$1.42B	19:25 / —	20:30 / 00:10	—	100%
1d	computed	19:05	19:05	-0.49%	-1.57×	+1.94×	-5.65×	2h25m	17h20m	High first	0.02	0.00%	-0.49%	35.61%	2.36%	$2.60B	19:25 / —	20:30 / 00:10	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T22:45:59+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 841,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T23:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T22:55:04+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 296,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-04T22:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}