Observation #16956

← Research Observations / #16956

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-04 21:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

20:00–21:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

21:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

22:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$86,627.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $1,317,045,213

Synced: 10-04 22:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-04 20:00) Next (10-04 22:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationmixed_dispersion

Leadershipmixed

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.6111

evaluated_at: 2026-10-04 20:45:58 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00022327

Settled at: 2026-10-04 21:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)37,898.01

OI (USD)$3,281,285,833

Mark price$86,582.00

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$1,172,916,510

Snapshot at: 2026-10-04 20:55:03

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.411%

Change 4h -0.223%

Change 24h +2.084%

Z-score 7d -0.43

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.001250%

Avg 24h 0.001211%

Percentile 7d 100.0% top

Percentile 30d 97.2%

Δ 4h 0.000000%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↓ Price ↑ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h +0.958%

Divergence 1.47

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

3.071

OI / Vol z-7d

0.53

OI momentum 4h

+0.058%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+73 crowded

Time: 2026-10-04 20:00:00 OI observed: 19:55:03 (5min ago) Funding at: 20:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #225587	fresh	1h	↑ up	range	range	moderate	grind	0.604	compression	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 41%	mid 19b 1.5ATR	—	—	0.40	14%	↓ -0.44	above_value	+10.87	—	#117806	—	—	—	—	03/10 20:00 upd 04/10 20:15	↗
4h #225479	fresh	1h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.729	compression	bull_high	63%	noisy_chop 46%	late 13b 3.2ATR	—	near -2.0ATR	1.36	69%	↓ -0.69	above_value	+11.04	—	#117676	—	—	—	—	04/10 16:00 upd 04/10 20:05	↗
1h anchor #225931	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	explosive	0.739	expansion_after_compression	bull_low_confirmed	55%	choppy 50%	late 1b 3.4ATR	—	near -1.3ATR	2.16	82%	↑ +0.69	above_value	+10.87	—	#117806	—	—	—	—	04/10 20:00 upd 04/10 21:05	↗
15m #225873	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	balanced	0.676	volatile_reversal	bull_low_confirmed	37%	noisy_chop 48%	mid 1b 1.6ATR	—	near -1.1ATR	1.20	97%	↑ +0.49	above_value	+10.87	—	#117806	—	—	—	—	04/10 20:45 upd 04/10 21:00	↗
5m #225872	fresh	0s	↑ up	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.548	normal	range_low	41%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 5b 1.3ATR	—	near -0.4ATR	0.33	60%	↔ +0.04	above_value	+10.87	—	#117806	—	—	—	—	04/10 20:55 upd 04/10 21:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #177859	fresh	2026-10-04 20:00	0s	0.687	0.582	9/64	2026-10-04 21:00	2026-10-04 21:35
4h #177727	fresh	2026-10-04 16:00	1h	0.593	0.596	13/66	2026-10-04 20:00	2026-10-04 20:37
1d #177793	fresh	2026-10-03 20:00	1h	0.576	0.737	24/66	2026-10-04 20:00	2026-10-04 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #117936	fresh	2026-10-04 20:45	0s	$85,254.08	$86,285.63	$84,716.27	between	6.15	7.03
7d #118001	fresh	2026-10-04 20:00	0s	$83,585.38	$85,049.13	$82,863.27	between	10.59	7.61
30d #117871	fresh	2026-10-04 16:00	1h	$84,067.17	$87,471.00	$78,254.47	value	3.65	14.01

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$85,492.13 → $85,703.73	0.25%	0.95	0.74	reversion	✓	↑ $923.27	+4.14
above	$86,056.40 → $86,179.83	0.14%	0.55	0.69	reversion	✓	↑ $447.17	+2.00

Prix observé : $86,627.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$82,551.00 → $82,824.23	0.33%	0.95	0.72	continuation_down	✓	↑ $3,802.77	+13.24
above	$85,556.57 → $85,868.83	0.36%	1.09	0.57	continuation_up	✓	↑ $758.17	+2.64
below	$86,727.57 → $87,235.00	0.58%	1.77	0.72	continuation_up	✓	↓ $100.57	-0.35

Prix observé : $86,627.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$74,903.00 → $75,426.67	0.70%	0.80	0.61	continuation_down	✓	↑ $11,200.33	+17.03
above	$80,034.93 → $80,768.07	0.91%	1.11	0.60	reversion	✓	↑ $5,858.93	+8.91
above	$81,501.20 → $82,758.00	1.53%	1.91	0.75	reversion	✓	↑ $3,869.00	+5.88
below	$86,842.60 → $87,471.00	0.72%	0.96	0.73	continuation_up	✓	↓ $215.60	-0.33

Prix observé : $86,627.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	21:05	21:20	+0.21%	+0.59×	+0.86×	-0.37×	15m	5m	Low first	0.75	0.00%	+0.21%	55.81%	0.43%	$48.82M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	21:05	22:05	+0.08%	+0.24×	+1.36×	-0.37×	25m	5m	Low first	0.07	0.00%	+0.08%	46.24%	0.61%	$130.74M	21:25 / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	21:05	01:05	-1.26%	-3.57×	+1.36×	-3.67×	25m	4h	High first	0.31	0.00%	-1.26%	34.86%	1.77%	$554.96M	21:25 / —	23:35 / 00:05	—	100%
12h	computed	21:05	09:05	-0.59%	-1.67×	+1.36×	-3.94×	25m	4h20m	High first	0.06	0.00%	-0.59%	31.99%	1.87%	$1.25B	21:25 / —	23:35 / 00:05	—	100%
1d	computed	21:05	21:05	-0.61%	-1.72×	+1.36×	-5.32×	25m	15h20m	High first	0.03	0.00%	-0.61%	35.29%	2.35%	$2.44B	21:25 / —	23:35 / 00:05	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-05T00:45:58+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 842,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-05T01:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-05T00:55:03+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 297,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}