Observation #20806

← Research Observations / #20806

🪙 ARB page 📊 Market Context

🪙 ARB

Market snapshot at

2026-10-07 03:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

02:00–03:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

03:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

04:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.187810

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $14,756,744

Synced: 10-07 04:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-07 02:00) Next (10-07 04:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · ARB — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_expansion

Environmenttrend_expansion

Participationmixed_dispersion

Leadershipmixed

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.4205

evaluated_at: 2026-10-07 02:46:12 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate-0.001883%

Annualized-16.50%

Premium-0.00065065

Settled at: 2026-10-07 03:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)108,849,250.80

OI (USD)$20,423,385

Mark price$0.187630

Funding next-0.002030%

Day vol (USD)$14,850,480

Snapshot at: 2026-10-07 02:55:04

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h +0.123%

Change 4h -7.666%

Change 24h -8.020%

Z-score 7d 0.18

💰 Funding Context settled

Current -0.002439%

Avg 24h 0.000278%

Percentile 7d 1.8% bottom

Percentile 30d 0.4%

Δ 4h -0.000957%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↓ Price ↑ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h +1.497%

Divergence 4.21 fort

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

1.395

OI / Vol z-7d

-1.40

OI momentum 4h

-5.970%

Funding +ratio 24h

80.0%

Sign streak

-5

Time: 2026-10-07 02:00:00 OI observed: 01:55:03 (5min ago) Funding at: 02:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #243146	fresh	7h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.616	normal	bull_high	64%	noisy_chop 35%	early 13b 0.1ATR	—	—	0.29	80%	↓ -0.78	below_value	-0.79	—	#125382	0.58	bull_high	+13.29%	+0.50	05/10 20:00 upd 06/10 20:17	↗
4h #244627	fresh	3h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.642	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	52%	noisy_chop 41%	late 7b -2.4ATR	—	—	4.07	77%	↑ +0.48	below_value	-4.49	—	#126037	0.35	range_high	+0.32%	-0.61	06/10 20:00 upd 07/10 00:12	↗
1h anchor #245763	fresh	0s	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	balanced	0.397	volatile_reversal	bear_high	47%	noisy_chop 43%	late 4b -2.3ATR	—	—	0.24	17%	↔ +0.12	below_value	-4.50	inside	#126585	0.64	bear_medium	-1.25%	-0.51	07/10 02:00 upd 07/10 03:08	↗
15m #245682	fresh	15min	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.745	compression	bear_high	55%	noisy_chop 39%	early 8b -0.2ATR	—	—	0.54	81%	↓ -0.77	below_value	-4.25	—	#126428	0.63	bear_low	-1.01%	-0.24	07/10 02:30 upd 07/10 02:45	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #182725	fresh	2026-10-07 02:00	0s	0.477	0.311	54/79	2026-10-07 03:00	2026-10-07 03:35
4h #182490	fresh	2026-10-06 20:00	3h	0.469	0.254	67/78	2026-10-07 00:00	2026-10-07 00:37
1d #182125	fresh	2026-10-05 20:00	7h	0.389	0.514	64/70	2026-10-06 20:00	2026-10-06 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #126507	fresh	2026-10-07 02:45	0s	$0.202378	$0.207590	$0.187227	value	-9.94	13.90
7d #126585	fresh	2026-10-07 02:00	0s	$0.201868	$0.207675	$0.199177	between	-4.50	2.58
30d #126114	fresh	2026-10-06 20:00	3h	$0.218049	$0.256000	$0.169701	lvn LVN	-4.82	12.76

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.178500 → $0.183591	2.81%	3.47	0.53	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.004219	+2.88
below	$0.189166 → $0.190621	0.77%	0.99	0.53	reversion	✓	↓ $0.001356	-0.93
below	$0.191590 → $0.196439	2.50%	3.31	0.72	reversion	✓	↓ $0.003780	-2.58
below	$0.205408 → $0.207590	1.06%	1.49	0.78	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.017598	-12.01

Prix observé : $0.187810. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.178500 → $0.184165	3.12%	1.72	0.87	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.003645	+1.11
below	$0.210791 → $0.212490	0.80%	0.52	0.85	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.022981	-6.99

Prix observé : $0.187810. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
inside	$0.179059 → $0.195694	8.88%	2.46	0.80	continuation_down	✓	inside	+0.00
below	$0.243523 → $0.256000	5.00%	1.85	0.66	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.055713	-8.24

Prix observé : $0.187810. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-07T06:46:12+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 828,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-07T07:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-07T06:55:04+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 296,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}