Observation #31282

← Research Observations / #31282

🪙 ARB page 📊 Market Context

🪙 ARB

Market snapshot at

2026-10-12 19:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

18:00–19:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

19:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

20:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.182310

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $16,274,522

Synced: 10-12 20:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-12 18:00) Next (10-12 20:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · ARB — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_consolidation

Environmenttrend_consolidation

Participationbtc_led_risk_on

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.1443

evaluated_at: 2026-10-12 18:46:15 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate-0.002176%

Annualized-19.06%

Premium-0.00067404

Settled at: 2026-10-12 19:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)114,334,985.20

OI (USD)$20,911,869

Mark price$0.182900

Funding next-0.002214%

Day vol (USD)$15,243,243

Snapshot at: 2026-10-12 18:55:04

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.611%

Change 4h -2.532%

Change 24h +13.126%

Z-score 7d -0.50

💰 Funding Context settled

Current -0.002462%

Avg 24h 0.000103%

Percentile 7d 7.1%

Percentile 30d 1.7%

Δ 4h +0.002027%

🔀 Price × OI

↓↓ Price ↓ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h -1.884%

Divergence 0.21

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

1.398

OI / Vol z-7d

-0.94

OI momentum 4h

-12.422%

Funding +ratio 24h

68.0%

Sign streak

-8 crowded

Time: 2026-10-12 18:00:00 OI observed: 17:55:05 (5min ago) Funding at: 18:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #290155	fresh	23h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	fading	0.484	compression	bull_high	54%	noisy_chop 40%	early 18b 0.4ATR	—	—	0.78	84%	↓ -0.66	above_value	+4.52	—	#145992	0.58	bull_high	+9.88%	-0.71	10/10 20:00 upd 11/10 20:17	↗
4h #298050	fresh	3h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.381	normal	bear_high	67%	noisy_chop 43%	early 8b -0.5ATR	—	—	2.12	65%	↑ +0.54	value	+0.96	—	#149566	0.38	bear_high	-0.73%	+0.47	12/10 12:00 upd 12/10 16:12	↗
1h anchor #299278	fresh	0s	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	0.402	expansion	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 46%	late 2b -2.3ATR	near 0.1ATR	—	1.02	84%	↑ +0.54	value	-1.18	—	#150143	0.69	bear_medium_confirmed	-1.28%	-0.42	12/10 18:00 upd 12/10 19:09	↗
15m #299208	fresh	0s	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	strong	fading	0.738	expansion	bear_high	62%	noisy_chop 41%	late 3b -2.3ATR	near -0.7ATR	—	2.62	87%	↑ +0.39	above_value	-0.55	—	#149975	0.42	bear_low_confirmed	-1.12%	-0.10	12/10 18:45 upd 12/10 19:00	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #196109	fresh	2026-10-12 18:00	0s	0.480	0.328	48/84	2026-10-12 19:00	2026-10-12 19:35
4h #195864	fresh	2026-10-12 12:00	3h	0.582	0.496	20/80	2026-10-12 16:00	2026-10-12 16:37
1d #193890	fresh	2026-10-10 20:00	23h	0.548	0.698	34/73	2026-10-11 20:00	2026-10-11 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #150058	fresh	2026-10-12 18:45	0s	$0.188666	$0.192822	$0.183255	lvn LVN	-4.35	6.55
7d #150143	fresh	2026-10-12 18:00	0s	$0.185886	$0.198572	$0.177884	value	-1.18	6.85
30d #149647	fresh	2026-10-12 12:00	3h	$0.218049	$0.248722	$0.187377	between	-5.44	10.62

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
inside	$0.181530 → $0.183255	0.95%	1.18	0.63	continuation_down	✓	inside	+0.00
below	$0.197684 → $0.199409	0.87%	1.18	0.63	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.015374	-10.52

Prix observé : $0.182310. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.161490 → $0.164613	1.92%	1.03	0.76	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.017697	+5.86
above	$0.169687 → $0.171639	1.14%	0.65	0.73	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.010671	+3.53
above	$0.173981 → $0.176713	1.56%	0.90	0.78	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.005597	+1.85
below	$0.204427 → $0.208330	1.89%	1.29	0.79	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.022117	-7.32

Prix observé : $0.182310. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.131230 → $0.134349	2.35%	0.54	0.62	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.047961	+8.30
above	$0.142667 → $0.147866	3.58%	0.90	0.57	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.034444	+5.96
above	$0.172820 → $0.176979	2.38%	0.72	0.56	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.005331	+0.92
below	$0.188416 → $0.193615	2.72%	0.90	0.55	continuation_down	✓	↓ $0.006106	-1.06
below	$0.242483 → $0.256000	5.42%	2.34	0.62	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.060173	-10.42

Prix observé : $0.182310. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T22:46:15+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 825,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T23:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T22:55:04+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 296,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-12T22:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}