Observation #31689

← Research Observations / #31689

🪙 XPL page 📊 Market Context

🪙 XPL

Market snapshot at

2026-10-12 23:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

22:00–23:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

23:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

00:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.080978

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $18,945,157

Synced: 10-13 00:02 +1h

← Prev (10-12 22:00) Next (10-13 00:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · XPL — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_consolidation

Environmenttrend_consolidation

Participationbtc_led_risk_on

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.169

evaluated_at: 2026-10-12 22:46:15 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate-0.001339%

Annualized-11.73%

Premium-0.00060710

Settled at: 2026-10-12 23:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)616,277,580.00

OI (USD)$49,704,019

Mark price$0.080652

Funding next-0.001557%

Day vol (USD)$18,153,110

Snapshot at: 2026-10-12 22:55:04

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.666%

Change 4h -5.058%

Change 24h -8.243%

Z-score 7d -0.70

💰 Funding Context settled

Current -0.003150%

Avg 24h -0.000035%

Percentile 7d 1.8% bottom

Percentile 30d 0.4%

Δ 4h -0.002383%

🔀 Price × OI

↓↓ Price ↓ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h -0.993%

Divergence 2.52 fort

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

2.774

OI / Vol z-7d

-0.94

OI momentum 4h

-2.736%

Funding +ratio 24h

64.0%

Sign streak

-5

Time: 2026-10-12 22:00:00 OI observed: 21:55:05 (5min ago) Funding at: 22:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #300002	fresh	3h	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	grind	0.633	compression	bear_high	51%	noisy_chop 39%	late 17b -1.6ATR	near 0.1ATR	—	0.40	63%	↓ -0.87	below_value	-5.41	—	#150377	0.54	bull_high	+7.21%	-0.86	11/10 20:00 upd 12/10 20:28	↗
4h #299910	fresh	3h	↓ down	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	fading	0.642	expansion	bear_high_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 38%	late 7b -2.6ATR	near -0.5ATR	—	4.46	75%	↑ +0.48	below_value	-5.41	—	#150377	0.53	bear_high_confirmed	-1.92%	-0.31	12/10 16:00 upd 12/10 20:24	↗
1h anchor #301165	fresh	0s	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	0.255	expansion_after_compression	bear_high_confirmed	64%	noisy_chop 51%	mid 2b -1.4ATR	—	—	0.48	65%	↑ +0.81	value	-3.87	—	#150976	0.66	range_medium	-0.24%	-0.61	12/10 22:00 upd 12/10 23:12	↗
15m #301081	fresh	0s	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.485	expansion	bear_high	61%	noisy_chop 40%	early 10b 0.2ATR	—	—	0.23	77%	↓ -0.40	below_value	-4.60	—	#150804	0.63	range_low	+0.13%	-0.22	12/10 22:45 upd 12/10 23:04	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #196678	fresh	2026-10-12 22:00	0s	0.479	0.274	52/85	2026-10-12 23:00	2026-10-12 23:37
4h #196340	fresh	2026-10-12 16:00	3h	0.492	0.219	37/84	2026-10-12 20:00	2026-10-12 20:39
1d #196424	fresh	2026-10-11 20:00	3h	0.230	0.209	83/84	2026-10-12 20:00	2026-10-12 20:22

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #150890	fresh	2026-10-12 22:45	0s	$0.083765	$0.084889	$0.078785	value	-3.30	7.22
7d #150976	fresh	2026-10-12 22:00	0s	$0.086789	$0.088952	$0.080861	value	-3.87	5.39
30d #150462	fresh	2026-10-12 16:00	3h	$0.096419	$0.107704	$0.080210	value	-6.97	12.06

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.076536 → $0.077821	1.67%	1.52	0.36	continuation_down	—	↑ $0.003157	+3.73
below	$0.084782 → $0.085853	1.26%	1.27	0.64	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.003804	-4.50
below	$0.086924 → $0.087674	0.86%	0.89	0.63	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.005946	-7.03
below	$0.088102 → $0.089387	1.45%	1.52	0.74	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.007124	-8.43

Prix observé : $0.080978. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.076536 → $0.079605	3.93%	2.04	0.78	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.001373	+0.91
below	$0.090067 → $0.090904	0.93%	0.56	0.70	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.009089	-6.05

Prix observé : $0.080978. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.076517 → $0.080210	4.71%	1.62	0.76	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.000768	+0.34
below	$0.117142 → $0.125760	7.10%	3.78	0.70	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.036164	-15.86

Prix observé : $0.080978. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-13T02:46:15+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 825,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-13T03:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-13T02:55:04+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 296,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-13T02:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}