Observation #37818

← Research Observations / #37818

🪙 ARB page 📊 Market Context

🪙 ARB

Market snapshot at

2026-10-16 03:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

02:00–03:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

03:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

04:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$0.197050

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $17,479,400

Synced: 10-16 04:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-16 02:00) Next (10-16 04:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · ARB — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_pullback

Environmenttrend_pullback

Participationbroad_risk_on

Leadershipalts

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.8334

evaluated_at: 2026-10-16 02:46:16 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate-0.000782%

Annualized-6.85%

Premium-0.00056260

Settled at: 2026-10-16 03:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)101,507,497.40

OI (USD)$19,980,736

Mark price$0.196840

Funding next-0.000728%

Day vol (USD)$16,498,260

Snapshot at: 2026-10-16 02:55:04

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h +1.196%

Change 4h +2.801%

Change 24h -6.025%

Z-score 7d 0.93

💰 Funding Context settled

Current -0.000060%

Avg 24h 0.000241%

Percentile 7d 46.4%

Percentile 30d 15.4%

Δ 4h -0.001310%

🔀 Price × OI

↑↑ Price ↑ · OI ↑

Price Δ 4h +2.374%

Divergence -0.11

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

1.191

OI / Vol z-7d

-1.01

OI momentum 4h

-3.254%

Funding +ratio 24h

64.0%

Sign streak

-1

Time: 2026-10-16 02:00:00 OI observed: 01:55:03 (5min ago) Funding at: 02:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (4) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #329328	fresh	7h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	moderate	grind	0.714	compression	bull_high	55%	noisy_chop 38%	early 22b 0.3ATR	—	—	1.64	89%	↓ -0.26	value	+2.81	—	#163473	0.58	bull_high	+7.23%	-0.85	14/10 20:00 upd 15/10 20:18	↗
4h #331126	fresh	3h	↔ neutral	transition	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.664	expansion	range_high	39%	noisy_chop 40%	early 6b 0.8ATR	—	—	0.51	19%	↑ +0.24	value	+2.07	—	#164241	0.40	bear_high	-1.25%	+0.33	15/10 20:00 upd 16/10 00:13	↗
1h anchor #332424	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	fading	0.509	normal	bull_high	68%	choppy 47%	late 3b 2.1ATR	—	—	1.36	91%	↓ -0.48	value	+3.35	—	#164840	0.74	range_medium	-0.30%	+0.80	16/10 02:00 upd 16/10 03:09	↗
15m #332353	fresh	0s	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	fading	0.527	expansion_after_compression	bull_high_confirmed	63%	noisy_chop 36%	early 5b 1.2ATR	—	near -0.4ATR	4.26	94%	↑ +0.56	value	+2.94	—	#164668	0.78	range_low	+0.19%	+0.18	16/10 02:45 upd 16/10 03:00	↗
5m	—	—	Pas de snapshot

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #204523	fresh	2026-10-16 02:00	0s	0.679	0.729	6/86	2026-10-16 03:00	2026-10-16 03:35
4h #204273	fresh	2026-10-15 20:00	3h	0.541	0.489	12/82	2026-10-16 00:00	2026-10-16 00:37
1d #203847	fresh	2026-10-14 20:00	7h	0.577	0.717	21/85	2026-10-15 20:00	2026-10-15 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #164755	fresh	2026-10-16 02:45	0s	$0.194333	$0.198320	$0.175765	value	1.77	14.70
7d #164840	fresh	2026-10-16 02:00	0s	$0.185774	$0.199628	$0.181796	value	3.35	5.29
30d #164324	fresh	2026-10-15 20:00	3h	$0.221036	$0.237412	$0.187842	value	-4.14	7.24

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.177815 → $0.181688	2.15%	2.52	0.89	reversion	✓	↑ $0.015362	+10.01
above	$0.186245 → $0.189207	1.58%	1.93	0.80	reversion	✓	↑ $0.007843	+5.11

Prix observé : $0.197050. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.170000 → $0.172743	1.60%	0.81	0.60	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.024307	+7.21
above	$0.175487 → $0.177956	1.40%	0.73	0.35	continuation_down	—	↑ $0.019094	+5.66
below	$0.199902 → $0.202920	1.50%	0.90	0.72	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.002852	-0.85

Prix observé : $0.197050. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$0.149780 → $0.156861	4.62%	1.03	0.71	continuation_down	✓	↑ $0.040189	+5.87
below	$0.237411 → $0.256000	7.53%	2.71	0.62	continuation_up	✓	↓ $0.040361	-5.89

Prix observé : $0.197050. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
4h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
12h	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—
1d	missing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	— / —	—	—

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T06:46:16+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 824,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T07:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T06:55:04+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 296,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}