Observation #38815

← Research Observations / #38815

🪙 BTC page 📊 Market Context

🪙 BTC

Market snapshot at

2026-10-16 15:00 UTC

T — snapshot anchor

Last closed 1h candle

14:00–15:00

features known as of T*

Outcome entry

15:05 UTC

T + 5 minutes

Record created

16:15 UTC

Historical computation

Price

$81,115.00

Universe

Eligible

Vol 24h: $2,896,125,480

Synced: 10-16 16:15 +1.3h

← Prev (10-16 14:00) Next (10-16 16:00) →

* Subject to the verification of feature availability timestamps. Exchange: hyperliquid · Sampling: 1h

Chart · BTC — marker à observed_at

Market Regime

fresh

Primary biasbull

Phasebull_pullback

Environmenttrend_pullback

Participationalt_capitulation

Leadershipbtc

BTC bias 1Dbull

Breadth score0.0314

evaluated_at: 2026-10-16 14:46:06 · staleness: 14min

Funding (settled)

fresh

Rate0.001250%

Annualized10.95%

Premium-0.00032845

Settled at: 2026-10-16 15:00:00

staleness: 0s

Open Interest

fresh

OI (coin)41,828.22

OI (USD)$3,385,408,668

Mark price$80,936.00

Funding next0.001250%

Day vol (USD)$2,809,273,944

Snapshot at: 2026-10-16 14:55:05

⚠️ funding_next = taux qui settlera à la prochaine heure, pas déjà appliqué.

staleness: 5min

Derivatives Features v1 ⓘ

fresh

📊 OI Dynamics quantity-space

Change 1h -0.903%

Change 4h -1.544%

Change 24h +2.648%

Z-score 7d -1.40

💰 Funding Context settled

Current 0.000994%

Avg 24h 0.001240%

Percentile 7d 53.0%

Percentile 30d 28.9%

Δ 4h -0.000256%

🔀 Price × OI

↓↓ Price ↓ · OI ↓

Price Δ 4h -1.019%

Divergence -0.16

🧮 Participation / Crowding P1 primitives

OI / Vol 24h

1.257

OI / Vol z-7d

-0.54

OI momentum 4h

-2.523%

Funding +ratio 24h

100.0%

Sign streak

+28 crowded

Time: 2026-10-16 14:00:00 OI observed: 13:55:03 (5min ago) Funding at: 14:00 Coverage 30d: 100% (720 samples) OI samples 7d: 168 Funding interval: 1h

Market Contexts (5) ⓘ

TF	Status	Staleness	Direction	Phase	Structure	Strength	Momentum	Mom. score	Volatility	Regime	Tradability	PAQ	Move	Demand	Supply	RVOL	Vol %ile	Vol Trend	Vol Zone	POC ATR	LVN	VP ref	BTC Corr	BTC Regime	BTC OutPerf	RS / BTC	Évalué à / Updated
1d #329283	fresh	19h	↑ up	transition	bullish_transition	strong	balanced	0.556	normal	bull_high	60%	noisy_chop 35%	early 24b -0.3ATR	—	—	1.78	91%	↑ +0.26	value	-1.40	—	#163465	—	—	—	—	14/10 20:00 upd 15/10 20:15	↗
4h #336223	fresh	3h	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	moderate	grind	0.403	expansion	bear_high	58%	noisy_chop 35%	early 6b -0.7ATR	near 0.1ATR	—	1.26	84%	↔ +0.02	value	-2.17	—	#166362	—	—	—	—	16/10 08:00 upd 16/10 12:05	↗
1h anchor #337498	fresh	0s	↔ neutral	range	range	moderate	balanced	0.493	normal	bear_medium_confirmed	58%	noisy_chop 38%	mid 4b -1.4ATR	—	—	2.24	94%	↑ +0.89	below_value	-3.45	—	#166939	—	—	—	—	16/10 14:00 upd 16/10 15:05	↗
15m #337428	fresh	0s	↓ down	early_expansion	bearish_transition	strong	explosive	0.265	expansion	bear_low	53%	noisy_chop 45%	mid 5b -1.1ATR	—	—	1.36	93%	↑ +0.43	below_value	-3.45	—	#166939	—	—	—	—	16/10 14:45 upd 16/10 15:00	↗
5m #337427	fresh	0s	↓ down	range	range	moderate	fading	0.627	volatile_reversal	range_low	30%	noisy_chop 36%	early 3b -0.7ATR	near 0.5ATR	—	0.28	63%	↓ -0.58	below_value	-3.45	—	#166939	—	—	—	—	16/10 14:55 upd 16/10 15:00	↗

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + timeframe — c'est ce que Staleness mesure par rapport à observed_at.

Quality Scores (3) ⓘ

Base TF	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	Score	Momentum	Rank	Scored bucket	Created at
1h #205771	fresh	2026-10-16 14:00	0s	0.590	0.432	7/82	2026-10-16 15:00	2026-10-16 15:35
4h #205526	fresh	2026-10-16 08:00	3h	0.571	0.404	12/82	2026-10-16 12:00	2026-10-16 12:37
1d #203839	fresh	2026-10-14 20:00	19h	0.611	0.565	16/85	2026-10-15 20:00	2026-10-15 20:20

scored_at = bucket Laravel pour ranking cross-coin ; evaluated_at = timestamp de la dernière candle Python (canonique).

Volume Profiles (3) ⓘ

Window	Status	Evaluated at	Staleness	POC	VAH	VAL	Zone	POC dist (ATR)	Value width (ATR)
24h #167021	fresh	2026-10-16 14:45	0s	$82,145.04	$82,561.38	$81,356.65	between	-3.07	3.59
7d #167103	fresh	2026-10-16 14:00	0s	$82,997.39	$83,894.89	$81,641.58	between	-3.55	4.25
30d #166610	fresh	2026-10-16 08:00	3h	$83,573.81	$86,535.68	$82,066.90	between	-2.05	4.51

evaluated_at = ouverture de la dernière candle fermée du rolling window. Data cutoff réel = evaluated_at + source TF.

LVN zones (window 24h — source TF 15m) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
below	$82,525.95 → $82,898.00	0.45%	1.11	0.67	continuation_up	✓	↓ $1,410.95	-4.21

Prix observé : $81,115.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 24h (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 7d — source TF 1h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$79,732.00 → $80,648.60	1.14%	1.73	0.76	continuation_down	✓	↑ $466.40	+0.88
below	$84,047.66 → $84,315.00	0.32%	0.50	0.77	continuation_up	✓	↓ $2,932.66	-5.53

Prix observé : $81,115.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 7d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

LVN zones (window 30d — source TF 4h) ⓘ

Status	Range	Width %	Width ATR	Depth	Setup	Tradable	Distance ($)	Dist ATR
above	$76,974.58 → $77,909.90	1.21%	0.94	0.86	continuation_down	✓	↑ $3,205.10	+3.23
above	$78,429.53 → $79,988.40	1.97%	1.57	0.89	continuation_down	✓	↑ $1,126.60	+1.14

Prix observé : $81,115.00. Les zones viennent du payload_json.lvn_zones[] du snapshot 30d (toutes les zones, incluant non-tradable). Setup à titre indicatif — ne pas filtrer dessus (labels peu fiables).

Outcomes (5 horizons) ⓘ

Horizon	Status	Entry	Window end	Close ret	in ATR	Max up ATR	Max down ATR	Time to high	Time to low	First extreme	Dir. eff.	Excess vs BTC	BTC ret	Real. vol	Real. range	Volume	FT up 1/2 ATR	FT down 1/2 ATR	Ambig.	Coverage
15m	computed	15:05	15:20	+0.43%	+0.64×	+0.64×	-0.14×	15m	5m	Low first	1.00	0.00%	+0.43%	46.84%	0.53%	$44.44M	— / —	— / —	—	100%
1h	computed	15:05	16:05	+0.65%	+0.97×	+1.21×	-0.14×	25m	5m	Low first	0.54	0.00%	+0.65%	41.51%	0.91%	$205.97M	15:25 / —	— / —	—	100%
4h	computed	15:05	19:05	+0.88%	+1.32×	+1.34×	-0.14×	3h30m	5m	Low first	0.35	0.00%	+0.88%	24.19%	1.00%	$356.29M	15:25 / —	— / —	—	100%
12h	computed	15:05	03:05	+0.65%	+0.97×	+1.34×	-0.14×	3h30m	5m	Low first	0.12	0.00%	+0.65%	18.22%	1.00%	$522.81M	15:25 / —	— / —	—	100%
1d	computed	15:05	15:05	+0.48%	+0.72×	+1.34×	-0.14×	3h30m	5m	Low first	0.05	0.00%	+0.48%	16.26%	1.00%	$882.36M	15:25 / —	— / —	—	100%

Entry = observed_at + 5min (policy next_5m_open_plus_5min, versionnée). ATR référence = atr_1h_14 (Wilder, 1h fermées) et atr_1d_14. Excess vs BTC = close_return − btc_return (benchmark non-β-ajusté).

Debug — Raw resolutions JSON

{
    "market_regime": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T18:46:06+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 834,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "funding_rate": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T19:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "open_interest": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T18:55:05+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 295,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    },
    "derivatives_features": {
        "evaluated_at": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
        "staleness_seconds": 0,
        "resolution": "fresh"
    }
}