Short Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 332.96 TRUMP at 1.474$ per unit. Take profit: 1.4138 (4.08 %) & Stop Loss: 1.4979 (1.63 %)
11 Aug 2026 at 12:15:50
hyperliquid
TRUMP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
11 Aug 2026 12:15
→ 23:10
· 10 hours
Position
Entry 1.4739$
Qty 332.9553 TRUMP
Size 490.7428$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 1.4138 (+4.08%)
TP $ 20.01$
SL 1.4979 (-1.63%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.63%
/ -7.99$
MAE -1.71%
MFE +0.91%
0.6R
expires
12 Aug 00:15
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 65936)
#27 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 11/08/2026 12:00
score du 11/08/2026 12:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6906
Quality Score
0.558
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.8M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
11/08 12:02
11/08 12:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#27 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+3
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.63 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#27 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
78 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+4
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.63 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.83×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.09×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bear_low_confirmed (+1) 11/08 12:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 10/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 11/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : range_high (0) 11/08 11:00 Score : +3 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5583
Score SMA
0.5319
Rank
#27
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6906
Rank Norm SMA
0.6019
Calculé le
11/08/2026 12:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4023 | r1h: -2.041% · r4h: -2.256% · r1d: -0.89% · r3d: -1.39% · ema21_slope: 0.0298% · dist_ema21: -1.720% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4209 | rs_1h: -1.696% · rs_4h: -0.958% · rs_1d: 0.28% · rs_3d: 0.96% · beta_24h: 0.976 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.6426 | rvol_20: 1.68× · zscore_50: 0.815 · trend: 219.74% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6924 | ADX: 23.1 (weak) · Chop: 30.9 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.928% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.628%
(0.0240)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.360% | 0.2R | -0.366% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.570% | 0.4R | -0.366% | 0.2R | 1.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.909% | 0.6R | -1.255% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.909% | 0.6R | -1.255% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.909% | 0.6R | -1.710% | 1.1R | 0.5× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.558% | 1.6R | -1.710% | 1.1R | 1.5× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 1.76
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.50 | bear_high | -3.51% | -0.40 | 10/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early_expansion | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.53 | bear_medium | -0.77% | +0.33 | 11/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | range_high |
42%
|
noisy_chop 42% | early | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.37 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.52% | +0.22 | 11/08 11:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium_confirmed |
57%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.57 | bear_low_confirmed | -1.06% | -0.11 | 11/08 11:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 38b | — | 6.377×ATR | p77 | -0.019×ATR | p0 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 2b | — | 1.6×ATR | p0 | +0.408×ATR | p33 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early | 1b | — | 1.568×ATR | p4 | -0.331×ATR | p30 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 5.59×ATR | p94 | -3.545×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7796
- reason: down_bo width=1.96×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.49792725
- tp_price: 1.41383188
- atr:
- score: 0.77962313466608
- expires_at: 2026-08-12T04:15:42.821136
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.77962313466608
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0677
- obi_top10 : 0.1019
- micro_price : 1.47508706
- spread_pct : 0.067797
- mid_price : 1.4755
- bid_wall_price : 1.47
- bid_wall_size : 279280.28
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.48
- ask_wall_size : 332911.78
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0968
- obi_top5_std : 0.0253
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7204
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.5098
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.48335
- balance_zone_mid:
1.496575
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786327200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786464000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.956
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7796
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786460400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.48335
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7436
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.6988
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
6
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
11
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.01352249 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.7436
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.6988
Signaux confirmants (36)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:15 | 1.47390000 | 0% |
| 2 | 12:21 | 1.47460000 | +0.047% |
| 3 | 12:27 | 1.47460000 | +0.047% |
| 4 | 12:34 | 1.47460000 | +0.047% |
| 5 | 12:39 | 1.47560000 | +0.115% |
| 6 | 12:45 | 1.47560000 | +0.115% |
| 7 | 12:52 | 1.47720000 | +0.224% |
| 8 | 12:57 | 1.47720000 | +0.224% |
| 9 | 13:05 | 1.47720000 | +0.224% |
| 10 | 13:10 | 1.47060000 | -0.224% |
| 11 | 13:16 | 1.47060000 | -0.224% |
| 12 | 13:21 | 1.47450000 | +0.041% |
| 13 | 13:27 | 1.47450000 | +0.041% |
| 14 | 13:34 | 1.47450000 | +0.041% |
| 15 | 13:39 | 1.47530000 | +0.095% |
| 16 | 13:45 | 1.47530000 | +0.095% |
| 17 | 13:51 | 1.47350000 | -0.027% |
| 18 | 13:57 | 1.47350000 | -0.027% |
| 19 | 14:04 | 1.47350000 | -0.027% |
| 20 | 14:09 | 1.47190000 | -0.136% |
| 21 | 14:15 | 1.47190000 | -0.136% |
| 22 | 14:21 | 1.46780000 | -0.414% |
| 23 | 14:27 | 1.46780000 | -0.414% |
| 24 | 14:34 | 1.46780000 | -0.414% |
| 25 | 14:39 | 1.46730000 | -0.448% |
| 26 | 14:45 | 1.46730000 | -0.448% |
| 27 | 14:51 | 1.47080000 | -0.21% |
| 28 | 14:57 | 1.47080000 | -0.21% |
| 29 | 15:04 | 1.47080000 | -0.21% |
| 30 | 15:10 | 1.47130000 | -0.176% |
| 31 | 15:15 | 1.47130000 | -0.176% |
| 32 | 15:21 | 1.47550000 | +0.109% |
| 33 | 15:27 | 1.47550000 | +0.109% |
| 34 | 15:33 | 1.47550000 | +0.109% |
| 35 | 15:39 | 1.47830000 | +0.299% |
| 36 | 15:45 | 1.47830000 | +0.299% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7204ms
Confidence avant OB :
78%
→
78%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.068
avg 0.097
± 0.025
OBI Top 10
0.102
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.4755
Micro Price
1.4751
Spread
0.0678%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.4700
Size
279,280.28
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.4800
Size
332,911.78
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4739 | 1.4979 | 1.4138 | 2.5 | 2.5076 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4739
- Stop Loss: 1.4979
- Take Profit: 1.4138
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.4979 - 1.4739 = 0.024
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4739 - 1.4138 = 0.0601
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0601 / 0.024 = 2.5042
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 490.7428 | 100 | 332.9553 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.024
Taille de position = 8 / 0.024 = 333.33
Taille de position USD = 333.33 x 1.4739 = 491.3
Donc, tu peux acheter 333.33 avec un stoploss a 1.4979
Avec un position size USD de 491.3$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 333.33 x 0.024 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 333.33 x 0.0601 = 20.03
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.03$
Résumé
- Taille de position 333.33
- Taille de position USD 491.3
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.03
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5042
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.08 % | 20.01 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.63 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -7.99 $ | -1.63 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.6758 % | 102.92 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4739 | 1.4979 | 1.4138 | 2.5 | 2.5076 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4739
- Stop Loss: 1.4979
- Take Profit: 1.4138
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.4979 - 1.4739 = 0.024
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4739 - 1.4138 = 0.0601
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0601 / 0.024 = 2.5042
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.628%
(0.0240)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.360% | 0.2R | -0.366% | 0.2R | 1.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.570% | 0.4R | -0.366% | 0.2R | 1.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.909% | 0.6R | -1.255% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.909% | 0.6R | -1.255% | 0.8R | 0.7× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.909% | 0.6R | -1.710% | 1.1R | 0.5× | 143 |
| 24h | +2.558% | 1.6R | -1.710% | 1.1R | 1.5× | 288 |
computed 1 week ago
Commentaires
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