Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 35.85 AAVE at 88.991$ per unit. Take profit: 88.5447 (0.5 %) & Stop Loss: 89.2141 (0.25 %)
Short Trade on AAVE (CatchTheWave)
With 35.85 AAVE at 88.991$ per unit. Take profit: 88.5447 (0.5 %) & Stop Loss: 89.2141 (0.25 %)
Position
Entry 88.991$
Qty 35.8505 AAVE
Size 3190.3677$ (margin 100$) (leverage 32)
Risk Setup
TP 88.5447 (+0.5%)
TP $ 16$
SL 89.2141 (-0.25%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5314
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 4.49×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.71×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.79×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 11/08 21:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.39306 15m : 0.672816 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : bull_low 5m_regime : bull_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 11/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 11/08 21:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4650 | r1h: 0.398% · r4h: 0.481% · r1d: -0.63% · r3d: -2.60% · ema21_slope: -0.0876% · dist_ema21: 0.300% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5119 | rs_1h: 0.193% · rs_4h: 0.515% · rs_1d: -0.10% · rs_3d: -0.67% · beta_24h: 1.416 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2275 | rvol_20: 0.66× · zscore_50: -0.242 · trend: -36.93% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7683 | ADX: 33.6 (trend) · Chop: 39.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.708% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -0.661% | 2.6R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.029% | 4.1R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.472% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.472% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.472% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 144 |
computed 1 week ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -1.8ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.45 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.44 | bear_medium | -0.82% | -0.08 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | range_medium |
45%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | — | near -1.0ATR | 0.49 | bear_low | -0.91% | +0.09 | 11/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | near -0.2ATR | — | range_low | -0.21% | +0.05 | 11/08 21:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 16b | — | 3.613×ATR | p40 | -0.871×ATR | p51 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 2.056×ATR | p4 | -0.492×ATR | p32 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 9b | — | 4.827×ATR | p90 | +0.915×ATR | p55 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 14b | — | 4.159×ATR | p79 | +3.451×ATR | p99 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63587.8
0.00225175
63731
0.39306
63797.5
-0.00104383
63731
0.672816
64411.4
-0.0101143
63760
Array
(
[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-09 08:00:00
[1] => 91.868
[2] => H
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-09 11:00:00
[1] => 90.815
[2] => L
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-09 22:00:00
[1] => 92.312
[2] => H
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-09 23:00:00
[1] => 90.162
[2] => L
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-10 07:00:00
[1] => 92.875
[2] => H
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-10 17:00:00
[1] => 88.89
[2] => L
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 07:00:00
[1] => 88.205
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 11:00:00
[1] => 89.304
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 16:00:00
[1] => 86.13
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-12 01:00:00
[1] => 89.148
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => downtrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => -1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.024678063445048
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 3.4784627888076
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 9
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 3.5040055729711
[ms_bos_up] => 0
[ms_bos_down] => 1
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
Array
(
[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 07:45:00
[1] => 88.911
[2] => H
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 11:00:00
[1] => 89.304
[2] => H
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 12:30:00
[1] => 88.573
[2] => L
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 14:00:00
[1] => 89.209
[2] => H
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 16:00:00
[1] => 86.13
[2] => L
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 20:00:00
[1] => 88.594
[2] => H
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 21:30:00
[1] => 87.987
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 22:00:00
[1] => 88.436
[2] => H
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 23:00:00
[1] => 88.051
[2] => L
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-12 01:15:00
[1] => 89.169
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => uptrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => 1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.19962094449865
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 1.06756311683
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 9
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 1.2697186857617
[ms_bos_up] => 1
[ms_bos_down] => 0
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
Array
(
[left_window] => 5
[right_window] => 5
[recent_pivots] => Array
(
[0] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 18:30:00
[1] => 87.035
[2] => L
)
[1] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 20:10:00
[1] => 88.594
[2] => H
)
[2] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 20:40:00
[1] => 88.061
[2] => L
)
[3] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 21:10:00
[1] => 88.296
[2] => H
)
[4] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 21:35:00
[1] => 87.987
[2] => L
)
[5] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 22:00:00
[1] => 88.436
[2] => H
)
[6] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-11 23:10:00
[1] => 88.051
[2] => L
)
[7] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-12 00:05:00
[1] => 88.183
[2] => L
)
[8] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-12 00:30:00
[1] => 88.759
[2] => H
)
[9] => Array
(
[0] => 2026-08-12 01:15:00
[1] => 89.169
[2] => H
)
)
[detected_trend] => uptrend
[features] => Array
(
[ms_trend_state] => 1
[ms_dist_from_last_high_pct] => -0.19962094449865
[ms_dist_from_last_low_pct] => 0.91627637980109
[ms_bars_since_swing_high] => 0
[ms_bars_since_swing_low] => 14
[ms_last_swing_amplitude_pct] => 0.46192498788855
[ms_bos_up] => 1
[ms_bos_down] => 0
[ms_choch_up] => 0
[ms_choch_down] => 0
)
)
86.13
190
0.341
0.6429
0.3208
0.2424
0.385
1
0.1128
0.4775
0.2751
0.5449
0.6376
0.4442
0.0265
-0.0486
0.3333
1.1926
-0.0545
0.4
0.6
-1
9
1
0.5152
0.5268
4.4589
0.65
2.8881
6.1942
-0.0545
0.1352
0.216
0.32
0.2294
0.5486
0.5538
0.5747
0.4442
-6.267
5.0083
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21:19 | 88.99100000 | 0% |
| 2 | 21:49 | 89.16700000 | +0.198% |
| 3 | 22:02 | 89.23200000 | +0.271% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 18:30:00 | 87.035 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 20:10:00 | 88.594 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 20:40:00 | 88.061 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 21:10:00 | 88.296 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 21:35:00 | 87.987 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 22:00:00 | 88.436 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 23:10:00 | 88.051 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 00:05:00 | 88.183 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 00:30:00 | 88.759 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 01:15:00 | 89.169 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 07:45:00 | 88.911 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 11:00:00 | 89.304 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 12:30:00 | 88.573 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 14:00:00 | 89.209 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 16:00:00 | 86.13 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 20:00:00 | 88.594 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 21:30:00 | 87.987 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 22:00:00 | 88.436 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 23:00:00 | 88.051 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 01:15:00 | 89.169 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 08:00:00 | 91.868 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-09 11:00:00 | 90.815 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-09 22:00:00 | 92.312 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-09 23:00:00 | 90.162 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-10 07:00:00 | 92.875 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-10 17:00:00 | 88.89 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 07:00:00 | 88.205 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 11:00:00 | 89.304 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 16:00:00 | 86.13 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 01:00:00 | 89.148 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.991 | 89.2141 | 88.5447 | 2 | 123.63 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 89.2141 - 88.991 = 0.2231
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 88.991 - 88.5447 = 0.44629999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.44629999999999 / 0.2231 = 2.0004
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3190.3677 | 100 | 35.8505 | 32.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.2231 = 35.86
Taille de position USD = 35.86 x 88.991 = 3191.22
Donc, tu peux acheter 35.86 avec un stoploss a 89.2141
Avec un position size USD de 3191.22$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 35.86 x 0.2231 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 35.86 x 0.44629999999999 = 16
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.5 % | 16 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.25 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.25 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5169 % | 206.18 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.991 | 89.2141 | 88.5447 | 2 | 123.63 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 89.2141 - 88.991 = 0.2231
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 88.991 - 88.5447 = 0.44629999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.44629999999999 / 0.2231 = 2.0004
Array
(
)
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 88.5447
[entry_price] => 88.991
[stop_loss] => 89.23641
[rr_ratio] => 1.82
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-12 02:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 88.5447
[entry_price] => 88.991
[stop_loss] => 89.25872
[rr_ratio] => 1.67
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-12 02:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.3] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 88.5447
[entry_price] => 88.991
[stop_loss] => 89.28103
[rr_ratio] => 1.54
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
[closed_at] => 2026-08-12 02:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.5] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 88.5447
[entry_price] => 88.991
[stop_loss] => 89.32565
[rr_ratio] => 1.33
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
[closed_at] => 2026-08-12 02:00:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -0.661% | 2.6R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.029% | 4.1R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.472% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.472% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.315% | 1.3R | -1.472% | 5.9R | 0.2× | 144 |
computed 1 week ago
Aucun commentaire.