Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 43198.88 ARB at 0.08$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08034 (0.46 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07978 (0.24 %)
Long Trade on ARB (CatchTheWave)
With 43198.88 ARB at 0.08$ per unit. Take profit: 0.08034 (0.46 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07978 (0.24 %)
Position
Entry 0.07997$
Qty 43198.8768 ARB
Size 3454.6142$ (margin 100$) (leverage 35)
Risk Setup
TP 0.08034 (+0.46%)
TP $ 15.98$
SL 0.07978 (-0.24%)
SL $ 8.21$
RR 1.95
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5853
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.65×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.80×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 18.36×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | OK |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (-1) 12/08 00:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.306216 15m : 0.587829 |
1H_regime : bull_high 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : range_high (0) 11/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 11/08 23:00 Score : -2 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5117 | r1h: 0.312% · r4h: 0.037% · r1d: -0.19% · r3d: 2.93% · ema21_slope: -0.0102% · dist_ema21: 1.005% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5433 | rs_1h: 0.204% · rs_4h: -0.315% · rs_1d: 0.35% · rs_3d: 4.44% · beta_24h: 2.119 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1808 | rvol_20: 0.39× · zscore_50: -0.779 · trend: -25.48% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6371 | ADX: 20.7 (weak) · Chop: 42.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.876% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -0.625% | 2.6R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -1.213% | 5.1R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.313% | 1.3R | -2.101% | 8.8R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -2.463% | 10.4R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -2.526% | 10.6R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.75% | -0.44 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | range_high |
43%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | near -0.8ATR | 0.60 | bear_medium | -0.77% | +0.36 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.38 | bear_low | -0.84% | +0.10 | 11/08 23:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | fading | compression | bull_low |
49%
|
noisy_chop 46% | early | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.48 | range_low | -0.11% | +0.14 | 11/08 23:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 31b | — | 6.136×ATR | p83 | -0.263×ATR | p13 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 2b | — | 2×ATR | p0 | +0.461×ATR | p34 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 4.249×ATR | p80 | +1.012×ATR | p56 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 1.457×ATR | p7 | +1.355×ATR | p60 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
63686.7
0.000882967
63743
0.306216
63812.8
-0.001095
63743
0.587829
64379
-0.00901029
63799
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0.07733
190
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0.3051
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0.1368
0.5035
0.7133
0.1434
0.0576
1
1.0879
1.2786
0.55
0.45
-1
9
1
0.5269
0.4272
4.0121
0.6
2.512
4.5412
1.2786
0.3114
0.2748
0
-0.0948
0.5087
0.568
0
0.7133
-2.215
5.5118
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (2)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:12 | 0.07997000 | 0% |
| 2 | 00:31 | 0.07982000 | -0.188% |
Market Structure Score: 0
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 21:20:00 | 0.07839 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 22:00:00 | 0.07892 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 22:10:00 | 0.07864 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 23:50:00 | 0.08041 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 00:20:00 | 0.07986 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 01:05:00 | 0.08081 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 01:45:00 | 0.08073 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 02:40:00 | 0.08003 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 03:40:00 | 0.08041 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 04:10:00 | 0.07997 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 10:15:00 | 0.07932 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 10:45:00 | 0.07932 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 12:15:00 | 0.08047 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 15:30:00 | 0.07741 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 19:00:00 | 0.07733 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 20:00:00 | 0.07884 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 20:30:00 | 0.07884 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 01:00:00 | 0.08081 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 02:30:00 | 0.08003 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 04:00:00 | 0.07997 | ↓ Low |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 00:00:00 | 0.07748 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-10 07:00:00 | 0.08049 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-10 11:00:00 | 0.07904 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-10 13:00:00 | 0.08093 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-10 22:00:00 | 0.07917 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 01:00:00 | 0.0815 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 07:00:00 | 0.07922 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 12:00:00 | 0.08047 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-11 19:00:00 | 0.07733 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 01:00:00 | 0.08081 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07997 | 0.07978 | 0.08034 | 1.95 | 0.09134 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07978 - 0.07997 = -0.00019
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07997 - 0.08034 = -0.00037
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00037 / -0.00019 = 1.9474
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3454.6142 | 100 | 43198.8768 | 35.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / -0.00019 = -42105.26
Taille de position USD = -42105.26 x 0.07997 = -3367.16
Donc, tu peux acheter -42105.26 avec un stoploss a 0.07978
Avec un position size USD de -3367.16$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -42105.26 x -0.00019 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -42105.26 x -0.00037 = 15.58
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.58$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.46 % | 15.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.24 % | 8.21 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.21 $ | -0.24 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5252 % | 221.04 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07997 | 0.07978 | 0.08034 | 1.95 | 0.09134 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07978 - 0.07997 = -0.00019
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07997 - 0.08034 = -0.00037
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -0.00037 / -0.00019 = 1.9474
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -0.625% | 2.6R | 0.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -1.213% | 5.1R | 0.3× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.313% | 1.3R | -2.101% | 8.8R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -2.463% | 10.4R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.313% | 1.3R | -2.526% | 10.6R | 0.1× | 144 |
computed 2 weeks ago
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