Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 6053.64 ARB at 0.0788$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07546 (4.19 %) & Stop Loss: 0.08008 (1.68 %)
12 Aug 2026 at 03:07:02
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
12 Aug 2026 03:07
→ 15:05
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.07876$
Qty 6053.6352 ARB
Size 476.7843$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07546 (+4.19%)
TP $ 19.98$
SL 0.08008 (-1.68%)
SL $ 7.99$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.72%
/ +3.45$
MAE -0.75%
MFE +1.03%
0.6R
expires
12 Aug 15:06
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 66589)
#9 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 12/08/2026 03:00
score du 12/08/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.7017
Quality Score
0.629
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
12/08 03:00
12/08 03:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#9 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#9 / 44
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.68 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.03×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.87×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.03×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 12/08 03:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 12/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 12/08 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.6285
Score SMA
0.5326
Rank
#9
/ 44
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.7017
Rank Norm SMA
0.5375
Calculé le
12/08/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4199 | r1h: -1.195% · r4h: -1.873% · r1d: -1.45% · r3d: 0.72% · ema21_slope: 0.0232% · dist_ema21: -1.076% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4363 | rs_1h: -0.891% · rs_4h: -1.735% · rs_1d: -0.95% · rs_3d: 2.56% · beta_24h: 2.187 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.9993 | rvol_20: 3.86× · zscore_50: 4.520 · trend: 99.51% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6241 | ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 41.5 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.895% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.676%
(0.0013)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.597% | 0.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.965% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +0.965% | 0.6R | -0.305% | 0.2R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.028% | 0.6R | -0.749% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.028% | 0.6R | -0.749% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.602% | 3.9R | -0.749% | 0.5R | 8.8× | 288 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 0.79
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 39% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.49% | -0.54 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | grind | expansion_after_compression | bear_high |
63%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | near -0.4ATR | 0.60 | bear_medium | -0.78% | +0.34 | 12/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | balanced | normal | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 46% | mid | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.39 | bear_low | -1.03% | -0.02 | 12/08 02:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | normal | bear_low_confirmed |
45%
|
choppy 55% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.31% | -0.22 | 12/08 02:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 31b | — | 6.215×ATR | p83 | -0.511×ATR | p22 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 3b | — | 1.615×ATR | p0 | +0.095×ATR | p6 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 3.185×ATR | p49 | -1.307×ATR | p71 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 22b | — | 7.161×ATR | p96 | -3.249×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8319
- reason: down_bo width=2.47×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.08008152
- tp_price: 0.0754562
- atr:
- score: 0.83192472263552
- expires_at: 2026-08-12T19:06:54.082905
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.83192472263552
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0074
- obi_top10 : -0.0264
- micro_price : 0.07868484
- spread_pct : 0.127226
- mid_price : 0.07865
- bid_wall_price : 0.0781
- bid_wall_size : 2057320.02
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0073
- obi_top5_std : 0.0001
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7171
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.080835
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.079195
- balance_zone_mid:
0.080015
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786359600
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786518000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4655
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8319
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786514400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.079195
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7556
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.654
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
4
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00066518 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.7556
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.654
Signaux confirmants (55)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:07 | 0.07876000 | 0% |
| 2 | 03:12 | 0.07876000 | 0% |
| 3 | 03:19 | 0.07868000 | -0.102% |
| 4 | 03:24 | 0.07868000 | -0.102% |
| 5 | 03:31 | 0.07868000 | -0.102% |
| 6 | 03:36 | 0.07863000 | -0.165% |
| 7 | 03:43 | 0.07863000 | -0.165% |
| 8 | 03:49 | 0.07844000 | -0.406% |
| 9 | 03:54 | 0.07844000 | -0.406% |
| 10 | 04:01 | 0.07844000 | -0.406% |
| 11 | 04:07 | 0.07851000 | -0.317% |
| 12 | 04:13 | 0.07851000 | -0.317% |
| 13 | 04:19 | 0.07837000 | -0.495% |
| 14 | 04:24 | 0.07837000 | -0.495% |
| 15 | 04:31 | 0.07837000 | -0.495% |
| 16 | 04:36 | 0.07823000 | -0.673% |
| 17 | 04:43 | 0.07823000 | -0.673% |
| 18 | 05:19 | 0.07835000 | -0.521% |
| 19 | 05:24 | 0.07835000 | -0.521% |
| 20 | 05:31 | 0.07835000 | -0.521% |
| 21 | 05:36 | 0.07886000 | +0.127% |
| 22 | 05:42 | 0.07886000 | +0.127% |
| 23 | 05:49 | 0.07883000 | +0.089% |
| 24 | 05:54 | 0.07883000 | +0.089% |
| 25 | 06:01 | 0.07883000 | +0.089% |
| 26 | 06:07 | 0.07884000 | +0.102% |
| 27 | 06:12 | 0.07884000 | +0.102% |
| 28 | 06:19 | 0.07890000 | +0.178% |
| 29 | 06:24 | 0.07890000 | +0.178% |
| 30 | 06:31 | 0.07890000 | +0.178% |
| 31 | 06:37 | 0.07872000 | -0.051% |
| 32 | 06:43 | 0.07872000 | -0.051% |
| 33 | 06:49 | 0.07879000 | +0.038% |
| 34 | 06:55 | 0.07879000 | +0.038% |
| 35 | 07:01 | 0.07879000 | +0.038% |
| 36 | 07:07 | 0.07866000 | -0.127% |
| 37 | 07:12 | 0.07866000 | -0.127% |
| 38 | 07:18 | 0.07870000 | -0.076% |
| 39 | 07:24 | 0.07870000 | -0.076% |
| 40 | 07:31 | 0.07870000 | -0.076% |
| 41 | 07:37 | 0.07894000 | +0.229% |
| 42 | 07:42 | 0.07894000 | +0.229% |
| 43 | 07:48 | 0.07889000 | +0.165% |
| 44 | 07:54 | 0.07889000 | +0.165% |
| 45 | 08:01 | 0.07889000 | +0.165% |
| 46 | 08:07 | 0.07896000 | +0.254% |
| 47 | 08:13 | 0.07896000 | +0.254% |
| 48 | 08:18 | 0.07881000 | +0.063% |
| 49 | 08:24 | 0.07881000 | +0.063% |
| 50 | 08:31 | 0.07881000 | +0.063% |
| 51 | 08:37 | 0.07907000 | +0.394% |
| 52 | 08:43 | 0.07907000 | +0.394% |
| 53 | 08:49 | 0.07892000 | +0.203% |
| 54 | 08:55 | 0.07892000 | +0.203% |
| 55 | 09:01 | 0.07892000 | +0.203% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7171ms
Confidence avant OB :
83%
→
83%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.007
avg 0.007
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
-0.026
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0787
Micro Price
0.0787
Spread
0.1272%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0781
Size
2,057,320.02
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07876 | 0.08008 | 0.07546 | 2.5 | 0.08808 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07876
- Stop Loss: 0.08008
- Take Profit: 0.07546
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08008 - 0.07876 = 0.00132
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07876 - 0.07546 = 0.0033
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0033 / 0.00132 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 476.7843 | 100 | 6053.6352 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00132
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00132 = 6060.61
Taille de position USD = 6060.61 x 0.07876 = 477.33
Donc, tu peux acheter 6060.61 avec un stoploss a 0.08008
Avec un position size USD de 477.33$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 6060.61 x 0.00132 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 6060.61 x 0.0033 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 6060.61
- Taille de position USD 477.33
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.19 % | 19.98 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.68 % | 7.99 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 3.45 $ | 0.72 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7491 % | 44.7 % | 23 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07876 | 0.08008 | 0.07546 | 2.5 | 0.08808 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07876
- Stop Loss: 0.08008
- Take Profit: 0.07546
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.08008 - 0.07876 = 0.00132
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07876 - 0.07546 = 0.0033
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0033 / 0.00132 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.676%
(0.0013)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.597% | 0.4R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 12 |
| 2h | +0.965% | 0.6R | -0.000% | 0.0R | — | 24 |
| 4h | +0.965% | 0.6R | -0.305% | 0.2R | 3.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.028% | 0.6R | -0.749% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.028% | 0.6R | -0.749% | 0.5R | 1.4× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.602% | 3.9R | -0.749% | 0.5R | 8.8× | 288 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
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