Short Trade on TRUMP (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 408.97 TRUMP at 1.469$ per unit. Take profit: 1.4205 (3.33 %) & Stop Loss: 1.489 (1.33 %)
12 Aug 2026 at 05:09:59
hyperliquid
TRUMP
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
12 Aug 2026 05:09
→ 17:05
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 1.4694$
Qty 408.9745 TRUMP
Size 600.9472$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 1.4205 (+3.33%)
TP $ 20$
SL 1.489 (-1.33%)
SL $ 8.02$
RR 2.49
Status
win
PnL
+2.38%
/ +14.31$
MAE -1.14%
MFE +2.40%
1.8R
expires
12 Aug 17:09
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 66713)
#46 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 12/08/2026 05:00
score du 12/08/2026 05:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3137
Quality Score
0.438
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
12/08 05:02
12/08 05:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#46 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.33 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#46 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
81 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.33 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.93×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.12×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 12/08 05:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 12/08 04:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 12/08 04:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4376
Score SMA
0.5249
Rank
#46
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3137
Rank Norm SMA
0.4974
Calculé le
12/08/2026 05:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4405 | r1h: -0.461% · r4h: -1.150% · r1d: -1.78% · r3d: -0.72% · ema21_slope: -0.0344% · dist_ema21: -1.023% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4531 | rs_1h: -0.363% · rs_4h: -1.156% · rs_1d: -1.21% · rs_3d: 0.89% · beta_24h: 1.121 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1705 | rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.443 · trend: -68.55% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3871 | ADX: 12.8 (weak) · Chop: 65.3 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.684% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.334%
(0.0196)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.000% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.000% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.259% | 1.7R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 2.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.402% | 1.8R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 2.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.499% | 4.9R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 5.7× | 288 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.52
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 37% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | bear_high | -4.49% | -0.49 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.52 | range_medium | -0.66% | +0.10 | 12/08 04:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | grind | compression | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.40 | bear_low | -0.81% | -0.17 | 12/08 04:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_low |
45%
|
noisy_chop 44% | late | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.43 | range_low | -0.11% | -0.12 | 12/08 04:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 39b | — | 6.864×ATR | p75 | -0.39×ATR | p15 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 2.848×ATR | p33 | -0.507×ATR | p43 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 5b | — | 2.895×ATR | p59 | -1.772×ATR | p92 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 21b | — | 8.316×ATR | p100 | -2.689×ATR | p95 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8091
- reason: down_bo width=2.66×ATR dur=44b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 1.48896112
- tp_price: 1.4204972
- atr:
- score: 0.80911701283199
- expires_at: 2026-08-12T21:09:51.591947
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80911701283199
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.083
- obi_top10 : 0.1403
- micro_price : 1.47037169
- spread_pct : 0.068027
- mid_price : 1.4705
- bid_wall_price : 1.46
- bid_wall_size : 304344.02
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 1.48
- ask_wall_size : 266831.86
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0633
- obi_top5_std : 0.0181
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7141
- aggregation_tick : 0.01
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
1.5011
- balance_zone_bottom:
1.47485
- balance_zone_mid:
1.487975
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786370400
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786525200
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.662
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
44
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8091
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786521600
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
1.47485
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6364
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.5527
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
7
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00986118 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
44
inside_close_ratio
0.6364
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.5527
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:09 | 1.46940000 | 0% |
| 2 | 05:15 | 1.46940000 | 0% |
| 3 | 05:22 | 1.47380000 | +0.299% |
| 4 | 05:27 | 1.47380000 | +0.299% |
| 5 | 05:34 | 1.47380000 | +0.299% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7141ms
Confidence avant OB :
81%
→
81%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.083
avg 0.063
± 0.018
OBI Top 10
0.140
Microstructure
Mid Price
1.4705
Micro Price
1.4704
Spread
0.0680%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
1.4600
Size
304,344.02
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
1.4800
Size
266,831.86
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4694 | 1.489 | 1.4205 | 2.49 | 2.7042 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4694
- Stop Loss: 1.489
- Take Profit: 1.4205
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.489 - 1.4694 = 0.0196
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4694 - 1.4205 = 0.0489
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0489 / 0.0196 = 2.4949
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 600.9472 | 100 | 408.9745 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0196
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0196 = 408.16
Taille de position USD = 408.16 x 1.4694 = 599.75
Donc, tu peux acheter 408.16 avec un stoploss a 1.489
Avec un position size USD de 599.75$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 408.16 x 0.0196 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 408.16 x 0.0489 = 19.96
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.96$
Résumé
- Taille de position 408.16
- Taille de position USD 599.75
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.96
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4949
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.33 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.33 % | 8.02 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 14.31 $ | 2.38 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1365 % | 85.2 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4694 | 1.489 | 1.4205 | 2.49 | 2.7042 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 1.4694
- Stop Loss: 1.489
- Take Profit: 1.4205
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.489 - 1.4694 = 0.0196
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.4694 - 1.4205 = 0.0489
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0489 / 0.0196 = 2.4949
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.334%
(0.0196)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.000% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.000% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 0.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.259% | 1.7R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 2.0× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +2.402% | 1.8R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 2.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +6.499% | 4.9R | -1.137% | 0.9R | 5.7× | 288 |
computed 2 weeks ago
Commentaires
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