Short Trade on AAVE (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 4.97 AAVE at 87.883$ per unit. Take profit: 83.8583 (4.58 %) & Stop Loss: 89.4929 (1.83 %)
12 Aug 2026 at 18:09:10
hyperliquid
AAVE
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
12 Aug 2026 18:09
→ 03:00
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 87.883$
Qty 4.9693 AAVE
Size 436.7191$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 83.8583 (+4.58%)
TP $ 20$
SL 89.4929 (-1.83%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.83%
/ -8$
MAE -1.95%
MFE +0.40%
0.2R
expires
13 Aug 06:09
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 67329)
#36 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 12/08/2026 18:00
score du 12/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2430
Quality Score
0.481
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.2M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
12/08 18:00
12/08 18:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#36 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#36 / 52
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.83 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.70×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.52×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.50×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 12/08 18:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 11/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 12/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 12/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4811
Score SMA
0.5240
Rank
#36
/ 52
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2430
Rank Norm SMA
0.4674
Calculé le
12/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4475 | r1h: -0.603% · r4h: -1.200% · r1d: 0.12% · r3d: -3.91% · ema21_slope: -0.0014% · dist_ema21: -0.913% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4448 | rs_1h: -0.496% · rs_4h: -1.298% · rs_1d: 0.31% · rs_3d: -1.36% · beta_24h: 1.423 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2641 | rvol_20: 0.83× · zscore_50: -0.168 · trend: -32.73% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5519 | ADX: 17.7 (weak) · Chop: 50.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.773% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.832%
(1.6099)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -0.212% | 0.1R | 1.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -0.470% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -0.667% | 0.4R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -1.249% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.396% | 0.2R | -1.955% | 1.1R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.155% | 0.6R | -1.955% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.89
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 35% | early | near -1.5ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -4.85% | -0.36 | 11/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | — | 0.44 | bear_medium | -1.03% | -0.10 | 12/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | expansion | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | — | — | 0.50 | bear_low | -0.95% | -0.06 | 12/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | normal | bear_low_confirmed |
46%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | near -1.0ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.27% | -0.13 | 12/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 16b | — | 3.261×ATR | p35 | -0.609×ATR | p39 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 7b | — | 1.854×ATR | p0 | -0.632×ATR | p40 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 2.088×ATR | p28 | -1.172×ATR | p68 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 2b | — | 2.22×ATR | p26 | -2.183×ATR | p84 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8855
- reason: down_bo width=2.49×ATR dur=54b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 89.49287683
- tp_price: 83.85830793
- atr:
- score: 0.88552404222591
- expires_at: 2026-08-13T10:09:02.338910
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.88552404222591
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0192
- obi_top10 : 0.1996
- micro_price : 87.93212828
- spread_pct : 0.011373
- mid_price : 87.935
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 88.3
- ask_wall_size : 2076.7
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0177
- obi_top5_std : 0.0012
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6946
- aggregation_tick : 0.1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
90.257
- balance_zone_bottom:
88.5955
- balance_zone_mid:
89.42625
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786381200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786572000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.4937
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
54
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8855
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786568400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
88.5955
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7222
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.0694
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
12
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.6662683 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
54
inside_close_ratio
0.7222
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0694
Signaux confirmants (48)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:09 | 87.88300000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:15 | 87.88300000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:21 | 87.87500000 | -0.009% |
| 4 | 18:27 | 87.87500000 | -0.009% |
| 5 | 18:33 | 87.87500000 | -0.009% |
| 6 | 18:39 | 87.84400000 | -0.044% |
| 7 | 18:44 | 87.84400000 | -0.044% |
| 8 | 18:51 | 87.77900000 | -0.118% |
| 9 | 18:56 | 87.77900000 | -0.118% |
| 10 | 19:03 | 87.77900000 | -0.118% |
| 11 | 19:09 | 87.64000000 | -0.277% |
| 12 | 19:14 | 87.64000000 | -0.277% |
| 13 | 19:21 | 87.67300000 | -0.239% |
| 14 | 19:26 | 87.67300000 | -0.239% |
| 15 | 19:32 | 87.67300000 | -0.239% |
| 16 | 19:38 | 87.88700000 | +0.005% |
| 17 | 19:44 | 87.88700000 | +0.005% |
| 18 | 19:50 | 88.04500000 | +0.184% |
| 19 | 19:56 | 88.04500000 | +0.184% |
| 20 | 20:03 | 88.04500000 | +0.184% |
| 21 | 20:09 | 88.04800000 | +0.188% |
| 22 | 20:15 | 88.04800000 | +0.188% |
| 23 | 20:21 | 88.42500000 | +0.617% |
| 24 | 20:26 | 88.42500000 | +0.617% |
| 25 | 20:32 | 88.42500000 | +0.617% |
| 26 | 20:38 | 88.01900000 | +0.155% |
| 27 | 20:43 | 88.01900000 | +0.155% |
| 28 | 20:50 | 87.90200000 | +0.022% |
| 29 | 20:55 | 87.90200000 | +0.022% |
| 30 | 21:02 | 87.90200000 | +0.022% |
| 31 | 21:08 | 88.02000000 | +0.156% |
| 32 | 21:14 | 88.02000000 | +0.156% |
| 33 | 21:20 | 88.22100000 | +0.385% |
| 34 | 21:25 | 88.22100000 | +0.385% |
| 35 | 21:32 | 88.22100000 | +0.385% |
| 36 | 21:37 | 88.20200000 | +0.363% |
| 37 | 21:43 | 88.20200000 | +0.363% |
| 38 | 21:49 | 87.98400000 | +0.115% |
| 39 | 21:55 | 87.98400000 | +0.115% |
| 40 | 22:02 | 87.98400000 | +0.115% |
| 41 | 22:08 | 88.00500000 | +0.139% |
| 42 | 22:14 | 88.00500000 | +0.139% |
| 43 | 22:20 | 87.88500000 | +0.002% |
| 44 | 23:39 | 88.16600000 | +0.322% |
| 45 | 23:45 | 88.16600000 | +0.322% |
| 46 | 23:51 | 88.19900000 | +0.36% |
| 47 | 23:56 | 88.19900000 | +0.36% |
| 48 | 00:03 | 88.19900000 | +0.36% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6946ms
Confidence avant OB :
89%
→
89%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.019
avg 0.018
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.200
Microstructure
Mid Price
87.9350
Micro Price
87.9321
Spread
0.0114%
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
88.3000
Size
2,076.70
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.883 | 89.4929 | 83.8583 | 2.5 | 131.24 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 87.883
- Stop Loss: 89.4929
- Take Profit: 83.8583
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 89.4929 - 87.883 = 1.6099
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 87.883 - 83.8583 = 4.0247
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.0247 / 1.6099 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 436.7191 | 100 | 4.9693 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.6099
Taille de position = 8 / 1.6099 = 4.97
Taille de position USD = 4.97 x 87.883 = 436.78
Donc, tu peux acheter 4.97 avec un stoploss a 89.4929
Avec un position size USD de 436.78$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 4.97 x 1.6099 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 4.97 x 4.0247 = 20
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20$
Résumé
- Taille de position 4.97
- Taille de position USD 436.78
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.58 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.83 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.83 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9549 % | 106.71 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.883 | 89.4929 | 83.8583 | 2.5 | 131.24 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 87.883
- Stop Loss: 89.4929
- Take Profit: 83.8583
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 89.4929 - 87.883 = 1.6099
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 87.883 - 83.8583 = 4.0247
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 4.0247 / 1.6099 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.832%
(1.6099)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -0.212% | 0.1R | 1.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -0.470% | 0.3R | 0.8× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -0.667% | 0.4R | 0.6× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.396% | 0.2R | -1.249% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.396% | 0.2R | -1.955% | 1.1R | 0.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.155% | 0.6R | -1.955% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 288 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Commentaires
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