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Short Trade on XPL

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12 Aug 2026 at 20:10:05 hyperliquid

Short Trade on XPL (momentum_rotation_score)

With 3232.01 XPL at 0.0742$ per unit. Take profit: (100 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07667 (3.34 %)

XPL SHORT momentum_rotation_score hyperliquid 12 Aug 2026 20:10 → 23:10 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 0.07419$

Qty 3232.0098 XPL

Size 239.786$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)

Risk Setup

TP 0 (+100%)

TP $ 239.78$

SL 0.07667 (-3.34%)

SL $ 8.02$

RR

Status loss PnL -0.16% / -0.37$ MAE -1.39% MFE +0.61% 0.2R expires 12 Aug 23:10 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 67460)
#47 / 51 OK
seuil : top 15
score du 12/08/2026 20:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.2603

Quality Score
0.443
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2 OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
12/08 20:03

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#47 / 51 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.34 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#47 / 51 OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
92 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7 OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.34 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Demand Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.12×ATR
4h near -1.47×ATR
1d near 0.45×ATR
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↓ down late BLOCKED
4h ↓ down late BLOCKED
1d ↓ down late BLOCKED
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bear_low_vol

rules_regime : bear_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 2

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

12/08 20:01

Score : +1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3)

11/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2)

12/08 16:00

Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1)

12/08 19:00

Score : +6 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear transition — +1
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.80
Transition risk : 0.20
Score contribution (this trade) +1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.63
Snapshot évalué : 12/08 20:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.4426
Score SMA
0.4920
Rank
#47 / 51
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2603
Rank Norm SMA
0.2832
Calculé le
12/08/2026 20:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.3233 r1h: -0.302% · r4h: -1.912% · r1d: -5.87% · r3d: -3.53% · ema21_slope: -0.1587% · dist_ema21: -2.150%
Force Relative 25% 0.3674 rs_1h: -0.291% · rs_4h: -1.895% · rs_1d: -5.63% · rs_3d: -1.27% · beta_24h: 1.110
Volume 20% 0.2284 rvol_20: 0.11× · zscore_50: -0.653 · trend: 3.96%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.7207 ADX: 36.4 (trend) · Chop: 48.4 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 1.180% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -3.343% (0.0025)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.314% 0.1R -1.386% 0.4R 0.2× 12
2h +0.611% 0.2R -1.386% 0.4R 0.4× 24
3h ★ +0.611% 0.2R -1.386% 0.4R 0.4× 36
4h +0.611% 0.2R -1.386% 0.4R 0.4× 48
8h +0.611% 0.2R -2.318% 0.7R 0.3× 96
12h +0.611% 0.2R -2.318% 0.7R 0.3× 144

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.53
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate grind compression bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 37% late near 0.5ATR — 0.51 bear_high -4.85% -0.39 11/08 20:00
4h ↓ down range range strong explosive volatile_reversal bear_high
48%
noisy_chop 40% late near -1.5ATR — 0.40 bear_medium_confirmed -1.28% -0.26 12/08 16:00
1h ↓ down range range moderate grind expansion bear_high
54%
noisy_chop 44% late near -0.1ATR — 0.37 bear_low -1.08% -0.39 12/08 19:00
15m ↓ down early_expansion bearish_transition moderate explosive expansion bear_medium
63%
noisy_chop 49% early — — 0.43 range_low -0.40% -0.27 12/08 19:45
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↓ down late 39b — 7.598×ATR p91 -0.703×ATR p35
4h ↓ down late 6b — 2.811×ATR p50 -1.472×ATR p84
1h ↓ down late 5b — 2.561×ATR p52 -1.935×ATR p91
15m ↑ up early 6b — 2.136×ATR p39 -1.102×ATR p44

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

momentum_rotation_score - SELL

Indicators:

  1. stop_price: 0.07666624
  2. atr: 0.00082508
  3. expires_at: 2026-08-13T03:10:05+00:00
Details
  1. rank: 48
  2. total: 52
  3. score: 0.3233
  4. confidence: 0.922

Signal Details

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07419 0.07667 0.09192
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07419
  • Stop Loss: 0.07667
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07667 - 0.07419 = 0.00248

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07419 - = 0.07419

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.07419 / 0.00248 = 29.9153

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
239.786 100 3232.0098 2.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss 0.00248

Taille de position = 8 / 0.00248 = 3225.81

Taille de position USD = 3225.81 x 0.07419 = 239.32

Donc, tu peux acheter 3225.81 avec un stoploss a 0.07667

Avec un position size USD de 239.32$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = 3225.81 x 0.00248 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = 3225.81 x 0.07419 = 239.32

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 239.32$

Résumé

  • Taille de position 3225.81
  • Taille de position USD 239.32
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 239.32
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 29.9153

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
100 % 239.78 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
3.34 % 8.02 $
PNL PNL %
-0.37 $ -0.16
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-1.3856 % 41.45 % 12
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
0.07419 0.07667 0.09192
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 0.07419
  • Stop Loss: 0.07667
  • Take Profit:

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 0.07667 - 0.07419 = 0.00248

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 0.07419 - = 0.07419

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.07419 / 0.00248 = 29.9153

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
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Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: momentum_rotation_score (★ 3h) Initial Risk: -3.343% (0.0025)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.314% 0.1R -1.386% 0.4R 0.2× 12
2h +0.611% 0.2R -1.386% 0.4R 0.4× 24
3h ★ +0.611% 0.2R -1.386% 0.4R 0.4× 36
4h +0.611% 0.2R -1.386% 0.4R 0.4× 48
8h +0.611% 0.2R -2.318% 0.7R 0.3× 96
12h +0.611% 0.2R -2.318% 0.7R 0.3× 144

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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