Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_pullback_v1)
With 451.98 KAITO at 0.451$ per unit. Take profit: 0.4352 (3.57 %) & Stop Loss: 0.469 (3.92 %)
13 Aug 2026 at 04:15:10
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
momentum_pullback_v1
hyperliquid
13 Aug 2026 04:15
→ 11:15
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 0.4513$
Qty 451.9774 KAITO
Size 203.9638$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.4352 (+3.57%)
TP $ 7.28$
SL 0.469 (-3.92%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.91
Status
loss
PnL
-3.92%
/ -8$
MAE -5.74%
MFE +6.93%
1.8R
expires
13 Aug 16:15
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 67857)
#45 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 04:00
score du 13/08/2026 04:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0106
Quality Score
0.443
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
22.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 04:02
13/08 04:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#45 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#45 / 48
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
98 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+6
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
3.92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.03×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : range rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : range_medium (0) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 13/08 04:00 Score : 0 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high_confirmed (+3) 12/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 13/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 13/08 03:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_bound
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | range | transition | — | 0 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.65
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.88
Snapshot évalué : 13/08 04:00
· env range_bound
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4428
Score SMA
0.3615
Rank
#45
/ 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0106
Rank Norm SMA
0.0139
Calculé le
13/08/2026 04:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3390 | r1h: 1.293% · r4h: 4.246% · r1d: -24.45% · r3d: -30.55% · ema21_slope: -0.7986% · dist_ema21: -2.313% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3894 | rs_1h: 1.398% · rs_4h: 3.897% · rs_1d: -24.50% · rs_3d: -28.50% · beta_24h: -0.611 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1522 | rvol_20: 0.46× · zscore_50: -0.717 · trend: -63.27% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7557 | ADX: 62.6 (trend) · Chop: 68.4 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 2.968% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.922%
(0.0177)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.435% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.435% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.169% | 0.6R | -2.435% | 0.6R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.169% | 0.6R | -5.737% | 1.5R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +6.933% | 1.8R | -5.737% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.86
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_high_confirmed |
52%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | 0.36 | bear_high | -4.24% | -1.00 | 12/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
51%
|
choppy 50% | late | — | — | -0.01 | range_medium | -0.52% | -1.00 | 13/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | — | — | -0.07 | range_low | -0.30% | -0.52 | 13/08 03:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
64%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.01 | range_low | +0.26% | +0.40 | 13/08 03:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 7.858×ATR | p83 | -3.063×ATR | p100 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 69b | — | 23.454×ATR | p100 | -4.001×ATR | p98 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 6b | — | 1.917×ATR | p21 | -0.908×ATR | p41 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 2b | — | 0.601×ATR | p0 | +1.983×ATR | p77 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_pullback_v1 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.46897
- tp_price: 0.43517419
- atr: 0.00643832
- expires_at: 2026-08-13T20:15:10+00:00
Details
- rank: 49
- total: 50
- score: 0.339
- avg_rank_8h: 49.6
- rank_velocity: -0.6
- pullback_depth_atr: 5.12
- trigger_price: 0.45672
- fip_24h: -0.083
- confidence: 0.98
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4513 | 0.469 | 0.4352 | 0.91 | 0.3324 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4513
- Stop Loss: 0.469
- Take Profit: 0.4352
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.469 - 0.4513 = 0.0177
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4513 - 0.4352 = 0.0161
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0161 / 0.0177 = 0.9096
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203.9638 | 100 | 451.9774 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0177
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0177 = 451.98
Taille de position USD = 451.98 x 0.4513 = 203.98
Donc, tu peux acheter 451.98 avec un stoploss a 0.469
Avec un position size USD de 203.98$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 451.98 x 0.0177 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 451.98 x 0.0161 = 7.28
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 7.28$
Résumé
- Taille de position 451.98
- Taille de position USD 203.98
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 7.28
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.9096
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.57 % | 7.28 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.92 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -3.92 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -5.7368 % | 146.27 % | 13 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4513 | 0.469 | 0.4352 | 0.91 | 0.3324 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.4513
- Stop Loss: 0.469
- Take Profit: 0.4352
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.469 - 0.4513 = 0.0177
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.4513 - 0.4352 = 0.0161
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0161 / 0.0177 = 0.9096
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -3.922%
(0.0177)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.435% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.435% | 0.6R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +2.169% | 0.6R | -2.435% | 0.6R | 0.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +2.169% | 0.6R | -5.737% | 1.5R | 0.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +6.933% | 1.8R | -5.737% | 1.5R | 1.2× | 144 |
computed 3 weeks ago
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