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Long Trade on TAO

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13 Aug 2026 at 10:11:21 hyperliquid

Long Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 4.42 TAO at 201.16$ per unit. Take profit: 205.6815 (2.25 %) & Stop Loss: 199.3514 (0.9 %)

TAO LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 13 Aug 2026 10:11 → 12:35 · 2 hours

Position

Entry 201.16$

Qty 4.4233 TAO

Size 889.7843$ (margin 100$) (leverage 9)

Risk Setup

TP 205.6815 (+2.25%)

TP $ 20$

SL 199.3514 (-0.9%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.90% / -8$ MAE -1.49% MFE +2.19% 2.4R expires 13 Aug 22:11

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 68128)
#23 / 50 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 10:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.4360

Quality Score
0.529
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
77 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 10:02

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#23 / 50 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
0
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-1
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-1 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#23 / 50 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
77 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-1 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.90 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.68×ATR
4h clear 1.25×ATR
1d clear 6.70×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : neutral

rules_regime : range_low

rules_regime_5m : range_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : range_medium (0)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

13/08 10:00

Score : 0

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3)

12/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

13/08 08:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

13/08 09:00

Score : -1 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_bound
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational range transition — 0
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.65
Stability : 0.80
Transition risk : 0.20
Score contribution (this trade) 0
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.88
Snapshot évalué : 13/08 10:00 · env range_bound

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.5288
Score SMA
0.4988
Rank
#23 / 50
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.4360
Rank Norm SMA
0.4013
Calculé le
13/08/2026 10:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5238 r1h: 0.514% · r4h: 0.539% · r1d: -0.06% · r3d: -1.04% · ema21_slope: -0.0108% · dist_ema21: 0.556%
Force Relative 25% 0.5277 rs_1h: 0.370% · rs_4h: 0.516% · rs_1d: 0.02% · rs_3d: 0.16% · beta_24h: 1.870
Volume 20% 0.3471 rvol_20: 1.27× · zscore_50: -0.095 · trend: -27.40%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4688 ADX: 18.0 (weak) · Chop: 60.6 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.733% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.899% (1.8086)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.959% 1.1R -0.080% 0.1R 12.1× 12
2h +0.959% 1.1R -0.537% 0.6R 1.8× 24
4h +0.959% 1.1R -1.486% 1.7R 0.7× 48
8h +1.457% 1.6R -1.486% 1.7R 1.0× 96
12h ★ +2.187% 2.4R -1.486% 1.7R 1.5× 144
24h +2.187% 2.4R -1.710% 1.9R 1.3× 288

computed 3 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2.8
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate fading compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 30% early — — 0.60 bear_high -4.65% +0.49 12/08 20:00
4h ↔ neutral range range moderate balanced compression bull_high
55%
noisy_chop 34% early — — 0.70 range_medium -0.58% +0.04 13/08 08:00
1h ↔ neutral transition bullish_transition moderate balanced compression range_high
37%
noisy_chop 39% early — near -0.7ATR 0.49 range_low -0.36% -0.01 13/08 09:00
15m ↑ up range range strong balanced expansion_after_compression range_low
40%
noisy_chop 41% late — — — range_low +0.17% +0.04 13/08 09:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 16b — 1.95×ATR p0 +0.254×ATR p11
4h ↓ down early 9b — 1.529×ATR p0 -0.01×ATR p1
1h ↑ up early 3b — 1.781×ATR p17 +0.818×ATR p53
15m ↑ up late 12b — 4.212×ATR p71 +2.24×ATR p91

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.7745
  3. reason: up_bo width=2.21×ATR dur=24b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(-0.10)
  4. stop_price: 199.35138187
  5. tp_price: 205.68154534
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.87452906922627
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-14T02:11:13.946720
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.87452906922627
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.1923
  10. obi_top10 : -0.1923
  11. micro_price : 200.96357349
  12. spread_pct : 0.004976
  13. mid_price : 200.965
  14. bid_wall_price :
  15. bid_wall_size :
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.2005
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0167
  23. pressure_side : ask
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7305
  26. aggregation_tick : 1
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    201.08
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    197.91
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    199.495
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1786546800
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1786629600
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    2.2072
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    24
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: forming
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8745
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1786626000
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    201.08
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.875
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.0557
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    6
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    3
  54. regime : bull_high
  55. atr_entry : 1.43618134
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
24
inside_close_ratio
0.875
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0557

Signaux confirmants (20)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 10:11 201.16000000 0%
2 10:17 201.25000000 +0.045%
3 10:23 201.25000000 +0.045%
4 10:29 201.25000000 +0.045%
5 10:35 201.25000000 +0.045%
6 10:41 201.83000000 +0.333%
7 10:47 202.02000000 +0.428%
8 10:53 202.02000000 +0.428%
9 10:58 202.02000000 +0.428%
10 11:04 202.02000000 +0.428%
11 11:10 202.55000000 +0.691%
12 11:16 202.55000000 +0.691%
13 11:22 202.48000000 +0.656%
14 11:27 202.48000000 +0.656%
15 11:33 202.48000000 +0.656%
16 11:39 201.85000000 +0.343%
17 11:45 201.85000000 +0.343%
18 11:51 201.84000000 +0.338%
19 11:57 201.84000000 +0.338%
20 12:04 201.84000000 +0.338%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

↓ ask ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7305ms Confidence avant OB : 87% → 77%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.192
avg -0.201 ± 0.017
OBI Top 10 -0.192

Microstructure

Mid Price
200.9650
Micro Price
200.9636
Spread
0.0050%

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
201.16 199.3514 205.6815 2.5 235.65
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 201.16
  • Stop Loss: 199.3514
  • Take Profit: 205.6815

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 199.3514 - 201.16 = -1.8086

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 201.16 - 205.6815 = -4.5215

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -4.5215 / -1.8086 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
889.7843 100 4.4233 9.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -1.8086

Taille de position = 8 / -1.8086 = -4.42

Taille de position USD = -4.42 x 201.16 = -889.13

Donc, tu peux acheter -4.42 avec un stoploss a 199.3514

Avec un position size USD de -889.13$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -4.42 x -1.8086 = 7.99

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -4.42 x -4.5215 = 19.99

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.99$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -4.42
  • Taille de position USD -889.13
  • Perte potentielle 7.99
  • Gain potentiel 19.99
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.25 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
0.9 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-8 $ -0.90
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.9396 % 104.5 % 6
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
201.16 199.3514 205.6815 2.5 235.65
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 201.16
  • Stop Loss: 199.3514
  • Take Profit: 205.6815

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 199.3514 - 201.16 = -1.8086

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 201.16 - 205.6815 = -4.5215

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -4.5215 / -1.8086 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
    [1.1] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 205.6815
            [entry_price] => 201.16
            [stop_loss] => 199.17054
            [rr_ratio] => 2.27
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-13 16:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.2] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 205.6815
            [entry_price] => 201.16
            [stop_loss] => 198.98968
            [rr_ratio] => 2.08
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-13 16:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.3] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 205.6815
            [entry_price] => 201.16
            [stop_loss] => 198.80882
            [rr_ratio] => 1.92
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.3
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-13 16:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

    [1.5] => Array
        (
            [take_profit] => 205.6815
            [entry_price] => 201.16
            [stop_loss] => 198.4471
            [rr_ratio] => 1.67
            [sl_change_percentage] => 1.5
            [closed_at] => 2026-08-13 16:40:00+00
            [result] => loss
        )

)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -0.899% (1.8086)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +0.959% 1.1R -0.080% 0.1R 12.1× 12
2h +0.959% 1.1R -0.537% 0.6R 1.8× 24
4h +0.959% 1.1R -1.486% 1.7R 0.7× 48
8h +1.457% 1.6R -1.486% 1.7R 1.0× 96
12h ★ +2.187% 2.4R -1.486% 1.7R 1.5× 144
24h +2.187% 2.4R -1.710% 1.9R 1.3× 288

computed 3 weeks ago

Commentaires

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