Web3Way Logo

Long Trade on TAO

Previous Trade Next Trade
13 Aug 2026 at 14:09:55 hyperliquid

Long Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)

With 3.41 TAO at 201.81$ per unit. Take profit: 207.6781 (2.91 %) & Stop Loss: 199.4628 (1.16 %)

TAO LONG BalanceBreakoutRegime hyperliquid 13 Aug 2026 14:09 → 02:05 · 11 hours

Position

Entry 201.81$

Qty 3.4082 TAO

Size 687.8183$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)

Risk Setup

TP 207.6781 (+2.91%)

TP $ 20$

SL 199.4628 (-1.16%)

SL $ 8$

RR 2.5

Status loss PnL -0.32% / -2.22$ MAE -0.48% MFE +1.86% 1.6R expires 14 Aug 02:09 Exit time_expired

V2 Shadow Analysis

Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?

Quality Rank (id: 68326)
#24 / 48 OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 14:00

Avg Rank 8h: 0.5322

Quality Score
0.518
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0 BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 14:01

V3 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.

Quality Rank
#24 / 48 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
-1
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.16 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size

V4 Shadow Analysis

Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.

Quality Rank
#24 / 48 OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
87 % OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-2 BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.16 % OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Near Supply Distance (ATR)
1h near -0.70×ATR
4h clear 1.62×ATR
1d clear 6.70×ATR
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse seuil : < 2 TF
TF Direction Maturity Adverse
1h ↑ up early OK
4h ↓ down early OK
1d ↑ up early OK
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity

Regime

BTC Market Regime BTC Market Regime V2

ml_regime : bear_low_vol

rules_regime : bear_medium_confirmed

rules_regime_5m : bear_low

Score : 0

ml_regime : bear_high

Strategic (1D) : range_high (0)

Operational (4H) : bear_medium_confirmed (-1)

Tactical (1H) : range_low (0)

13/08 14:00

Score : -1

BTC Correlation Coin Market Regime Coin Market Regime V2

Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3)

12/08 20:00

Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2)

13/08 12:00

Tactical (1H) : range_high (0)

13/08 13:00

Score : -1 / ±6

Regime v2

BTC Regime (snapshot)
range compression range_breakdown_risk
Strategic range compression — 0
Operational bear transition — -1
Tactical range range — 0
Micro — —
MTF alignment : 0.55
Stability : 0.80
Transition risk : 0.20
Score contribution (this trade) -1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score —
Impulse : —
% Positive (universe)
15m —
1h —
4h —
24h —
Outperformance vs BTC
Window % outperf Median ret
15m — —
4h — —
24h — —
Dispersion : —
Universe : —
Regime confidence : 0.63
Snapshot évalué : 13/08 14:00 · env range_with_pressure

Quality Score

Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).

Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.

1H
Score brut
0.5177
Score SMA
0.5045
Rank
#24 / 48
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5322
Rank Norm SMA
0.4320
Calculé le
13/08/2026 14:00
Composante Poids Score Détails
Momentum 30% 0.5228 r1h: 0.565% · r4h: -0.149% · r1d: 0.35% · r3d: -0.64% · ema21_slope: 0.0079% · dist_ema21: 0.353%
Force Relative 25% 0.5416 rs_1h: 0.407% · rs_4h: 0.578% · rs_1d: 0.71% · rs_3d: 0.46% · beta_24h: 1.478
Volume 20% 0.2632 rvol_20: 0.28× · zscore_50: -0.792 · trend: 37.00%
Qualité Tendance 15% 0.4857 ADX: 16.3 (weak) · Chop: 56.8 (neutral)
Volatilité 10% 1.0000 ATR%: 0.845% (optimal 0.3–3 %)

📌 Performance

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.163% (2.3472)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.130% 1.0R -0.481% 0.4R 2.4× 12
2h +1.130% 1.0R -0.481% 0.4R 2.4× 24
4h +1.130% 1.0R -0.481% 0.4R 2.4× 48
8h +1.858% 1.6R -0.481% 0.4R 3.9× 96
12h ★ +1.858% 1.6R -0.481% 0.4R 3.9× 144
24h +1.858% 1.6R -4.346% 3.7R 0.4× 288

computed 4 weeks ago

Prediction

ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 4.07
Prediction Score: N/A

Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)

TF Direction Phase Structure Strength Momentum Volatility Regime Tradability PAQ Move Demand Supply BTC Corr BTC Regime BTC OutPerf RS / BTC Évalué à
1d ↓ down range range moderate fading compression bear_high
58%
noisy_chop 30% early — — 0.60 bear_high -4.65% +0.49 12/08 20:00
4h ↑ up range range moderate balanced normal bull_high
57%
noisy_chop 32% early — — 0.70 bear_medium_confirmed -1.65% +0.14 13/08 12:00
1h ↔ neutral range range strong balanced normal range_high
42%
noisy_chop 41% early — near -0.7ATR 0.50 bear_medium_confirmed -1.12% +0.15 13/08 13:00
15m ↔ neutral transition bearish_transition moderate balanced volatile_reversal range_medium
31%
noisy_chop 38% early — — — range_low -0.57% +0.13 13/08 13:30
5m —

Move Maturity (au signal)

TF Direction Maturity Age (bars) Age since BOS Amplitude Amp. %ile Extension Ext. %ile
1d ↑ up early 16b — 1.95×ATR p0 +0.254×ATR p11
4h ↓ down early 10b — 1.186×ATR p0 +0.233×ATR p17
1h ↑ up early 1b — 1.76×ATR p13 +0.462×ATR p30
15m ↓ down early 1b — 0.87×ATR p0 +0.136×ATR p8

Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique

Signal

BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY

Indicators:

  1. long_trend: 1
  2. confidence: 0.8749
  3. reason: up_bo width=1.79×ATR dur=28b phase=fresh
  4. stop_price: 199.46275217
  5. tp_price: 207.67811958
  6. atr:
  7. score: 0.87487449645116
  8. expires_at: 2026-08-14T06:09:47.833066
  9. max_bars: 12
  10. max_bars_tf: 1h
  11. confidence_pre_ob: 0.87487449645116
Details
  1. 1H:
  2. 15m:
  3. 5m:
  4. btc_indicators
    5. ¸
  5. market_structures
    6. ¸
  6. market_structure_v2
    7. ¸
  7. trend_analyzer_1h
    8. ¸
  8. orderbook_context
  9. obi_top5 : -0.0664
  10. obi_top10 : -0.0664
  11. micro_price : 201.44691676
  12. spread_pct : 0.004964
  13. mid_price : 201.445
  14. bid_wall_price : 199
  15. bid_wall_size : 5508.201
  16. bid_wall_dist_atr :
  17. ask_wall_price :
  18. ask_wall_size :
  19. ask_wall_dist_atr :
  20. snapshots_count : 5
  21. obi_top5_mean : -0.0742
  22. obi_top5_std : 0.0111
  23. pressure_side : neutral
  24. collection_mode : ws_rolling
  25. collection_ms : 7029
  26. aggregation_tick : 1
  27. error :
    28. ¸
  28. strategy_details
  29. strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
  30. strategy_details
  31. balance_zone_top: 
    201.08
  32. balance_zone_bottom: 
    198.17
  33. balance_zone_mid: 
    199.625
  34. balance_zone_start_time: 
    1786546800
  35. balance_zone_end_time: 
    1786644000
  36. balance_zone_width_atr: 
    1.7936
  37. balance_zone_duration_bars: 
    28
  38. balance_zone_quality: tight
  39. balance_zone_maturity: forming
  40. balance_zone_confidence: 
    0.8749
  41. balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
  42. balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
  43. balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
  44. balance_zone_breakout_time: 
    1786640400
  45. balance_zone_breakout_price: 
    201.08
  46. strategy_details
  47. balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio: 
    0.8214
  48. balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout: 
    1
  49. balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr: 
    0.4499
  50. balance_metrics_has_retested: 
    1
  51. balance_metrics_retest_count: 
    1
  52. balance_metrics_touch_upper: 
    9
  53. balance_metrics_touch_lower: 
    6
  54. regime : bull_high
  55. atr_entry : 1.6224783
    56. ¸

Signal Details

duration_bars
28
inside_close_ratio
0.8214
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.4499

Signaux confirmants (51)

# Heure Entry Δ
1 14:09 201.81000000 0%
2 14:15 201.81000000 0%
3 14:21 201.91000000 +0.05%
4 14:27 201.91000000 +0.05%
5 14:33 201.91000000 +0.05%
6 14:51 201.97000000 +0.079%
7 14:57 201.97000000 +0.079%
8 15:04 201.97000000 +0.079%
9 15:21 202.80000000 +0.491%
10 15:26 202.80000000 +0.491%
11 15:33 202.80000000 +0.491%
12 15:39 202.82000000 +0.5%
13 15:44 202.82000000 +0.5%
14 15:51 203.17000000 +0.674%
15 15:56 203.17000000 +0.674%
16 16:04 203.17000000 +0.674%
17 16:09 201.99000000 +0.089%
18 16:15 201.99000000 +0.089%
19 16:21 202.33000000 +0.258%
20 16:27 202.33000000 +0.258%
21 16:33 202.33000000 +0.258%
22 16:39 202.19000000 +0.188%
23 16:45 202.19000000 +0.188%
24 16:51 202.52000000 +0.352%
25 16:57 202.52000000 +0.352%
26 17:04 202.52000000 +0.352%
27 17:09 203.14000000 +0.659%
28 17:15 203.14000000 +0.659%
29 17:21 202.84000000 +0.51%
30 17:27 202.84000000 +0.51%
31 17:33 202.84000000 +0.51%
32 17:39 203.31000000 +0.743%
33 17:45 203.31000000 +0.743%
34 17:51 203.37000000 +0.773%
35 17:57 203.37000000 +0.773%
36 18:04 203.37000000 +0.773%
37 18:09 203.44000000 +0.808%
38 18:15 203.44000000 +0.808%
39 18:50 203.50000000 +0.837%
40 18:56 203.50000000 +0.837%
41 19:04 203.50000000 +0.837%
42 19:09 203.30000000 +0.738%
43 19:15 203.30000000 +0.738%
44 19:21 203.13000000 +0.654%
45 19:26 203.13000000 +0.654%
46 19:33 203.13000000 +0.654%
47 19:38 203.35000000 +0.763%
48 19:44 203.35000000 +0.763%
49 19:51 203.11000000 +0.644%
50 19:56 203.11000000 +0.644%
51 20:04 203.11000000 +0.644%

Market Structure

Market Structure Score: 0

Market Structure V2

No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.

Trend Analyzer 1H

No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.

Orderbook Context

→ neutral ws_rolling 5 snapshots 7029ms Confidence avant OB : 87% → 87%

Order Book Imbalance

OBI Top 5 -0.066
avg -0.074 ± 0.011
OBI Top 10 -0.066

Microstructure

Mid Price
201.4450
Micro Price
201.4469
Spread
0.0050%

↑ Bid Wall (Support)

Price
199.0000
Size
5,508.20

📌 Entry & Exit

Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
201.81 199.4628 207.6781 2.5 236.43
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 201.81
  • Stop Loss: 199.4628
  • Take Profit: 207.6781

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 199.4628 - 201.81 = -2.3472

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 201.81 - 207.6781 = -5.8681

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -5.8681 / -2.3472 = 2.5

📌 Position Size

Amount Margin Quantity Leverage
687.8183 100 3.4082 7.00
Details

1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade

Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade

Paramètres:

  • Account Size 100
  • Risk per trade 8 %

Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8

Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade

2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter

Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss

Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price

Paramètres:

  • Risk Amount 8
  • Distance Stop Loss -2.3472

Taille de position = 8 / -2.3472 = -3.41

Taille de position USD = -3.41 x 201.81 = -688.17

Donc, tu peux acheter -3.41 avec un stoploss a 199.4628

Avec un position size USD de -688.17$

3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle

Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss

Perte = -3.41 x -2.3472 = 8

Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$

4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle

Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit

Perte = -3.41 x -5.8681 = 20.01

Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.01$

Résumé

  • Taille de position -3.41
  • Taille de position USD -688.17
  • Perte potentielle 8
  • Gain potentiel 20.01
  • Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5

📌 Peformances

TP % Target TP $ Target
2.91 % 20 $
SL % Target SL $ Target
1.16 % 8 $
PNL PNL %
-2.22 $ -0.32
Max Drawdown Max Drawdown / SL Ratio Candles in Entry
-0.4807 % 41.33 % 5
Entry Stop Loss Take Profit RR Current Price
201.81 199.4628 207.6781 2.5 236.43
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.

Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :

RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss

Détails du trade:

  • Entry 201.81
  • Stop Loss: 199.4628
  • Take Profit: 207.6781

Calcul:

  • Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :

    SL - E = 199.4628 - 201.81 = -2.3472

  • Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):

    E - TP = 201.81 - 207.6781 = -5.8681

  • Risk-Reward Ratio:

    RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -5.8681 / -2.3472 = 2.5

📌 ML Extra Data

Extra TP Data

                              Array
(
)
Extra SL data

                              Array
(
)

MAE / MFE Analysis

Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★ 12h) Initial Risk: -1.163% (2.3472)
Horizon MFE % MFE R MAE % MAE R MFE/MAE Candles
1h +1.130% 1.0R -0.481% 0.4R 2.4× 12
2h +1.130% 1.0R -0.481% 0.4R 2.4× 24
4h +1.130% 1.0R -0.481% 0.4R 2.4× 48
8h +1.858% 1.6R -0.481% 0.4R 3.9× 96
12h ★ +1.858% 1.6R -0.481% 0.4R 3.9× 144
24h +1.858% 1.6R -4.346% 3.7R 0.4× 288

computed 4 weeks ago

Commentaires

Aucun commentaire.