Long Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2.19 TAO at 203.13$ per unit. Take profit: 212.2811 (4.51 %) & Stop Loss: 199.4696 (1.8 %)
13 Aug 2026 at 20:39:10
hyperliquid
TAO
LONG
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
13 Aug 2026 20:39
→ 03:15
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 203.13$
Qty 2.1855 TAO
Size 443.9457$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 212.2811 (+4.51%)
TP $ 20$
SL 199.4696 (-1.8%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.80%
/ -8$
MAE -2.44%
MFE +1.20%
0.7R
expires
14 Aug 08:39
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68607)
#11 / 45
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 13/08/2026 20:00
score du 13/08/2026 20:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6730
Quality Score
0.521
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
4.9M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
13/08 20:31
13/08 20:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#11 / 45
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
-1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#11 / 45
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
86 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
-1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Supply zone (LONG: supply = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Supply | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | 0.41×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 1.13×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 6.57×ATR |
Move Maturity — move up late = adverse (LONG)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (-1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 13/08 20:00 Score : -1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (-3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bull_high (+2) 13/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bull_high (+1) 13/08 20:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5208
Score SMA
0.5108
Rank
#11
/ 45
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6730
Rank Norm SMA
0.5051
Calculé le
13/08/2026 20:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5422 | r1h: -0.152% · r4h: 0.510% · r1d: 1.51% · r3d: 1.77% · ema21_slope: 0.0625% · dist_ema21: 0.771% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5474 | rs_1h: -0.039% · rs_4h: 0.415% · rs_1d: 1.53% · rs_3d: 2.55% · beta_24h: 1.351 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2135 | rvol_20: 0.60× · zscore_50: -0.380 · trend: -32.54% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5239 | ADX: 15.1 (weak) · Chop: 50.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.783% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.802%
(3.6604)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.172% | 0.1R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 1.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -1.984% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.196% | 0.7R | -2.437% | 1.4R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -4.967% | 2.8R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 2
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 29% | early | near -1.1ATR | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -4.59% | +0.64 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↑ up | range | range | moderate | balanced | compression | bull_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.70 | bear_medium | -0.95% | +0.21 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | bull_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | near 0.4ATR | 0.50 | range_low | -0.55% | +0.21 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bull_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | — | 0.57 | range_low | -0.12% | +0.02 | 13/08 20:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 17b | — | 2.502×ATR | p0 | +0.656×ATR | p30 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 12b | — | 0.673×ATR | p0 | +0.677×ATR | p52 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 8b | — | 3.717×ATR | p77 | +1.287×ATR | p75 |
| 15m | ↑ up | early | 18b | — | 2.383×ATR | p25 | +0.636×ATR | p42 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - BUY
Indicators:
- long_trend: 1
- confidence: 0.8607
- reason: up_bo width=1.87×ATR dur=34b phase=extending
- stop_price: 199.46955246
- tp_price: 212.28111884
- atr:
- score: 0.86072889101925
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T12:39:03.191460
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.86072889101925
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.0402
- obi_top10 : -0.0402
- micro_price : 202.8902807
- spread_pct : 0.004929
- mid_price : 202.895
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0403
- obi_top5_std : 0
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7083
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
201.08
- balance_zone_bottom:
198.17
- balance_zone_mid:
199.625
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786546800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786665600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.872
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
34
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8607
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: up
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786640400
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
201.08
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6765
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
7
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.3188
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bull_high
- atr_entry : 1.55447536 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
34
inside_close_ratio
0.6765
bars_since_breakout
7
distance_to_edge_atr
1.3188
Signaux confirmants (12)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20:39 | 203.13000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 20:44 | 203.13000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 20:50 | 202.45000000 | -0.335% |
| 4 | 20:56 | 202.45000000 | -0.335% |
| 5 | 21:03 | 202.45000000 | -0.335% |
| 6 | 21:08 | 202.37000000 | -0.374% |
| 7 | 21:14 | 202.37000000 | -0.374% |
| 8 | 21:20 | 202.41000000 | -0.354% |
| 9 | 21:26 | 202.41000000 | -0.354% |
| 10 | 21:33 | 202.41000000 | -0.354% |
| 11 | 21:38 | 202.84000000 | -0.143% |
| 12 | 21:44 | 202.84000000 | -0.143% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7083ms
Confidence avant OB :
86%
→
86%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.040
avg -0.040
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
-0.040
Microstructure
Mid Price
202.8950
Micro Price
202.8903
Spread
0.0049%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203.13 | 199.4696 | 212.2811 | 2.5 | 234.85 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 203.13
- Stop Loss: 199.4696
- Take Profit: 212.2811
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 199.4696 - 203.13 = -3.6604
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 203.13 - 212.2811 = -9.1511
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -9.1511 / -3.6604 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 443.9457 | 100 | 2.1855 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss -3.6604
Taille de position = 8 / -3.6604 = -2.19
Taille de position USD = -2.19 x 203.13 = -444.85
Donc, tu peux acheter -2.19 avec un stoploss a 199.4696
Avec un position size USD de -444.85$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = -2.19 x -3.6604 = 8.02
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.02$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = -2.19 x -9.1511 = 20.04
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.04$
Résumé
- Taille de position -2.19
- Taille de position USD -444.85
- Perte potentielle 8.02
- Gain potentiel 20.04
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.51 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.8 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.80 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8707 % | 103.81 % | 6 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203.13 | 199.4696 | 212.2811 | 2.5 | 234.85 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 203.13
- Stop Loss: 199.4696
- Take Profit: 212.2811
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 199.4696 - 203.13 = -3.6604
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 203.13 - 212.2811 = -9.1511
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = -9.1511 / -3.6604 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.802%
(3.6604)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.172% | 0.1R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 1.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -0.640% | 0.4R | 1.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -1.984% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.196% | 0.7R | -2.437% | 1.4R | 0.5× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.196% | 0.7R | -4.967% | 2.8R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 4 weeks ago
Commentaires
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