Short Trade on BTC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.013 BTC at 63031$ per unit. Take profit: 61468.3552 (2.48 %) & Stop Loss: 63656.0579 (0.99 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 03:06:18
hyperliquid
BTC
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 03:06
→ 15:05
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 63031$
Qty 0.0128 BTC
Size 806.722$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 61468.3552 (+2.48%)
TP $ 20$
SL 63656.0579 (-0.99%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
win
PnL
+0.28%
/ +2.28$
MAE -0.31%
MFE +0.81%
0.8R
expires
14 Aug 15:06
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 68891)
#28 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 03:00
score du 14/08/2026 03:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5006
Quality Score
0.455
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
2
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.66B $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 03:00
14/08 03:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#28 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#28 / 46
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
72 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.99 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
0/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 1.57×ATR |
| 4h | clear | 0.77×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.07×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 2 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 03:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+2) 14/08 00:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 02:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | range | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.63
Snapshot évalué : 14/08 03:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4552
Score SMA
0.5135
Rank
#28
/ 46
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5006
Rank Norm SMA
0.5641
Calculé le
14/08/2026 03:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4627 | r1h: -0.336% · r4h: -0.465% · r1d: -1.15% · r3d: -1.22% · ema21_slope: -0.0115% · dist_ema21: -0.431% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1655 | rvol_20: 0.48× · zscore_50: -0.517 · trend: -50.30% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3887 | ADX: 14.2 (weak) · Chop: 66.6 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.342% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.992%
(625.0579)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.233% | 0.2R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 1.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.557% | 0.6R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 4.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.557% | 0.6R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 4.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.806% | 0.8R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 6.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.806% | 0.8R | -0.306% | 0.3R | 2.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.806% | 0.8R | -0.306% | 0.3R | 2.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 5.88
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 36% | early | — | near -0.4ATR | — | — | — | — | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_medium |
58%
|
noisy_chop 38% | early | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14/08 00:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_low |
49%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14/08 02:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | normal | bear_low |
51%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | near 0.0ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 14/08 03:00 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 24b | — | 2.827×ATR | p14 | -0.652×ATR | p40 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 10b | — | 2.645×ATR | p14 | -0.849×ATR | p47 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 8b | — | 2.204×ATR | p27 | -1.535×ATR | p82 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 11b | — | 5.582×ATR | p82 | -3.948×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7212
- reason: down_bo width=2.97×ATR dur=61b phase=fresh|ob:bid_pressure(-0.10)
- stop_price: 63656.05793595
- tp_price: 61468.35516012
- atr:
- score: 0.82120659856685
- expires_at: 2026-08-14T19:06:10.554339
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.82120659856685
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.2345
- obi_top10 : 0.2345
- micro_price : 63029.97891458
- spread_pct : 0.000159
- mid_price : 63029.95
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.2292
- obi_top5_std : 0.0243
- pressure_side : bid
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7298
- aggregation_tick : 100
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
63965.5
- balance_zone_bottom:
63302
- balance_zone_mid:
63633.75
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786474800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786690800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.9743
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
61
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: stretched
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8212
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786687200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
63302
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.8525
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.2148
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
3
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
9
- regime : bear_medium
- atr_entry : 223.07935951 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
61
inside_close_ratio
0.8525
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.2148
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:06 | 63031.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 03:12 | 63031.00000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 03:18 | 63065.00000000 | +0.054% |
| 4 | 03:24 | 63065.00000000 | +0.054% |
| 5 | 03:30 | 63065.00000000 | +0.054% |
| 6 | 03:36 | 63013.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 7 | 03:42 | 63013.00000000 | -0.029% |
| 8 | 03:48 | 63018.00000000 | -0.021% |
| 9 | 03:54 | 63018.00000000 | -0.021% |
| 10 | 04:00 | 63018.00000000 | -0.021% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↑ bid
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7298ms
Confidence avant OB :
82%
→
72%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.235
avg 0.229
± 0.024
OBI Top 10
0.235
Microstructure
Mid Price
63,029.9500
Micro Price
63,029.9789
Spread
0.0002%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63031 | 63656.0579 | 61468.3552 | 2.5 | 75614 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 63031
- Stop Loss: 63656.0579
- Take Profit: 61468.3552
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63656.0579 - 63031 = 625.0579
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 63031 - 61468.3552 = 1562.6448
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1562.6448 / 625.0579 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 806.722 | 100 | 0.0128 | 8.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 625.0579
Taille de position = 8 / 625.0579 = 0.01
Taille de position USD = 0.01 x 63031 = 630.31
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.01 avec un stoploss a 63656.0579
Avec un position size USD de 630.31$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.01 x 625.0579 = 6.25
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 6.25$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.01 x 1562.6448 = 15.63
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 15.63$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.01
- Taille de position USD 630.31
- Perte potentielle 6.25
- Gain potentiel 15.63
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.48 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.99 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 2.28 $ | 0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3062 % | 30.88 % | 13 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63031 | 63656.0579 | 61468.3552 | 2.5 | 75614 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 63031
- Stop Loss: 63656.0579
- Take Profit: 61468.3552
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63656.0579 - 63031 = 625.0579
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 63031 - 61468.3552 = 1562.6448
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1562.6448 / 625.0579 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.992%
(625.0579)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.233% | 0.2R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 1.9× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.557% | 0.6R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 4.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.557% | 0.6R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 4.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.806% | 0.8R | -0.125% | 0.1R | 6.4× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.806% | 0.8R | -0.306% | 0.3R | 2.6× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.806% | 0.8R | -0.306% | 0.3R | 2.6× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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