Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1276.24 ONDO at 0.327$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3116 (4.8 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3335 (1.89 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 10:39:08
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 10:39
→ 22:35
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 0.3273$
Qty 1276.2427 ONDO
Size 417.676$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3116 (+4.8%)
TP $ 20.04$
SL 0.3335 (-1.89%)
SL $ 7.91$
RR 2.53
Status
loss
PnL
-0.77%
/ -3.22$
MAE -0.83%
MFE +1.82%
1.0R
expires
14 Aug 22:39
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69249)
#26 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 10:00
score du 14/08/2026 10:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3444
Quality Score
0.518
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.1M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 10:31
14/08 10:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#26 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#26 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
71 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -1.48×ATR |
| 1d | near | -0.19×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | late | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 06:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 10:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5178
Score SMA
0.4886
Rank
#26
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.3444
Rank Norm SMA
0.3375
Calculé le
14/08/2026 10:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4539 | r1h: 0.146% · r4h: 0.000% · r1d: -1.76% · r3d: -2.84% · ema21_slope: -0.0768% · dist_ema21: -0.617% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5021 | rs_1h: 0.175% · rs_4h: 0.105% · rs_1d: -0.21% · rs_3d: -0.57% · beta_24h: 1.309 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3062 | rvol_20: 0.84× · zscore_50: -0.493 · trend: 12.94% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6322 | ADX: 22.2 (weak) · Chop: 44.7 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.752% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.894%
(0.0062)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.457% | 0.8R | -0.070% | 0.0R | 20.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.457% | 0.8R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.457% | 0.8R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.818% | 1.0R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 4.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.818% | 1.0R | -0.828% | 0.4R | 2.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.818% | 1.0R | -1.268% | 0.7R | 1.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 5.5
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.63 | bear_high | -5.66% | -0.85 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 34% | mid | near -1.5ATR | — | 0.53 | bear_medium | -2.10% | -0.09 | 14/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.55 | bear_low | -1.68% | -0.14 | 14/08 10:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | bear_low |
53%
|
noisy_chop 43% | early | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_low_confirmed | -0.81% | -0.04 | 14/08 10:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 5.496×ATR | p75 | -1.993×ATR | p89 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 6b | — | 2.29×ATR | p12 | -1.422×ATR | p76 |
| 1h | ↑ up | late | 2b | — | 0.621×ATR | p0 | -1.87×ATR | p86 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 3b | — | 1.817×ATR | p13 | -0.761×ATR | p39 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.7067
- reason: down_bo width=2.67×ATR dur=56b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.3335384
- tp_price: 0.311599
- atr:
- score: 0.70674336306439
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T02:39:00.669761
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.70674336306439
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1574
- obi_top10 : 0.0826
- micro_price : 0.32735883
- spread_pct : 0.030553
- mid_price : 0.32735
- bid_wall_price : 0.326
- bid_wall_size : 1866615.18
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.328
- ask_wall_size : 1351727.88
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1372
- obi_top5_std : 0.0468
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6833
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.3366
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.32998
- balance_zone_mid:
0.33329
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786518000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786716000
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.6651
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
56
- balance_zone_quality: loose
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7067
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786698000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.32998
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.75
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
5
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.091
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
8
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
6
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00248398 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
56
inside_close_ratio
0.75
bars_since_breakout
5
distance_to_edge_atr
1.091
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:39 | 0.32727000 | -0.009% |
| 2 | 10:45 | 0.32727000 | -0.009% |
| 3 | 10:51 | 0.32691000 | -0.119% |
| 4 | 10:57 | 0.32691000 | -0.119% |
| 5 | 11:04 | 0.32691000 | -0.119% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6833ms
Confidence avant OB :
71%
→
71%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.157
avg 0.137
± 0.047
OBI Top 10
0.083
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3274
Micro Price
0.3274
Spread
0.0306%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3260
Size
1,866,615.18
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3280
Size
1,351,727.88
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3273 | 0.3335 | 0.3116 | 2.53 | 0.3287 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3273
- Stop Loss: 0.3335
- Take Profit: 0.3116
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3335 - 0.3273 = 0.0062
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3273 - 0.3116 = 0.0157
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0157 / 0.0062 = 2.5323
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 417.676 | 100 | 1276.2427 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0062
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0062 = 1290.32
Taille de position USD = 1290.32 x 0.3273 = 422.32
Donc, tu peux acheter 1290.32 avec un stoploss a 0.3335
Avec un position size USD de 422.32$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1290.32 x 0.0062 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1290.32 x 0.0157 = 20.26
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.26$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1290.32
- Taille de position USD 422.32
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 20.26
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5323
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.8 % | 20.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.89 % | 7.91 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -3.22 $ | -0.77 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.828 % | 43.71 % | 15 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3273 | 0.3335 | 0.3116 | 2.53 | 0.3287 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3273
- Stop Loss: 0.3335
- Take Profit: 0.3116
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3335 - 0.3273 = 0.0062
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3273 - 0.3116 = 0.0157
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0157 / 0.0062 = 2.5323
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.894%
(0.0062)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +1.457% | 0.8R | -0.070% | 0.0R | 20.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +1.457% | 0.8R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 24 |
| 4h | +1.457% | 0.8R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 3.9× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.818% | 1.0R | -0.370% | 0.2R | 4.9× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +1.818% | 1.0R | -0.828% | 0.4R | 2.2× | 144 |
| 24h | +1.818% | 1.0R | -1.268% | 0.7R | 1.4× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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