Short Trade on TAO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 2.13 TAO at 195.9$ per unit. Take profit: 186.4991 (4.8 %) & Stop Loss: 199.6604 (1.92 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 11:39:22
hyperliquid
TAO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 11:39
→ 19:55
· 8 hours
Position
Entry 195.9$
Qty 2.1275 TAO
Size 416.7677$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 186.4991 (+4.8%)
TP $ 20$
SL 199.6604 (-1.92%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-1.92%
/ -8$
MAE -2.86%
MFE +0.10%
0.1R
expires
14 Aug 23:39
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69297)
#19 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 11:00
score du 14/08/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6264
Quality Score
0.529
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
7.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 11:31
14/08 11:31
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#19 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#19 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
89 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.92 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.52×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.20×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 1.14×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 06:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high_confirmed (+2) 14/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 11:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5288
Score SMA
0.5366
Rank
#19
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6264
Rank Norm SMA
0.7007
Calculé le
14/08/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4321 | r1h: -0.363% · r4h: -0.558% · r1d: -2.35% · r3d: -1.50% · ema21_slope: -0.0758% · dist_ema21: -1.257% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4633 | rs_1h: -0.500% · rs_4h: -0.434% · rs_1d: -0.61% · rs_3d: 0.09% · beta_24h: 1.158 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4240 | rvol_20: 1.29× · zscore_50: 0.595 · trend: -6.85% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6567 | ADX: 18.8 (weak) · Chop: 34.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.741% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.920%
(3.7604)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.694% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.904% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.102% | 0.1R | -0.904% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.102% | 0.1R | -1.802% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.102% | 0.1R | -2.864% | 1.5R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.102% | 0.1R | -2.864% | 1.5R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.04
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
58%
|
noisy_chop 28% | early | — | — | 0.60 | bear_high | -5.66% | +0.53 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | fading | normal | bear_high_confirmed |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.69 | bear_medium | -2.10% | -0.05 | 14/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | near -0.5ATR | — | 0.49 | bear_low | -1.51% | -0.26 | 14/08 11:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | expansion_after_compression | bear_medium |
64%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | — | — | 0.54 | range_low | -0.49% | -0.18 | 14/08 11:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 17b | — | 1.738×ATR | p0 | -0.003×ATR | p0 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 3b | — | 3.075×ATR | p57 | -1.699×ATR | p94 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 13b | — | 6.562×ATR | p100 | -3.152×ATR | p99 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 3b | — | 2.626×ATR | p32 | -1.847×ATR | p84 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8861
- reason: down_bo width=1.82×ATR dur=47b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)|ob:obi_moderate(+0.05)
- stop_price: 199.66036825
- tp_price: 186.49907938
- atr:
- score: 0.76612926568543
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T03:39:14.457723
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.76612926568543
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.2978
- obi_top10 : -0.2978
- micro_price : 196.27965469
- spread_pct : 0.015287
- mid_price : 196.265
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2539
- obi_top5_std : 0.0452
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6964
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
201.08
- balance_zone_bottom:
197.89
- balance_zone_mid:
199.485
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786554000
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786719600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
1.819
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
47
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.7661
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786716000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
197.89
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.617
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1348
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
10
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high_confirmed
- atr_entry : 1.75368246 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
47
inside_close_ratio
0.617
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1348
Signaux confirmants (15)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:39 | 195.90000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:45 | 195.90000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 11:51 | 196.79000000 | +0.454% |
| 4 | 11:57 | 196.79000000 | +0.454% |
| 5 | 12:04 | 196.79000000 | +0.454% |
| 6 | 12:10 | 196.01000000 | +0.056% |
| 7 | 12:16 | 196.01000000 | +0.056% |
| 8 | 12:21 | 196.13000000 | +0.117% |
| 9 | 12:27 | 196.13000000 | +0.117% |
| 10 | 12:34 | 196.13000000 | +0.117% |
| 11 | 12:39 | 197.06000000 | +0.592% |
| 12 | 12:45 | 197.06000000 | +0.592% |
| 13 | 12:51 | 196.92000000 | +0.521% |
| 14 | 12:57 | 196.92000000 | +0.521% |
| 15 | 13:04 | 196.92000000 | +0.521% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6964ms
Confidence avant OB :
77%
→
89%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.298
avg -0.254
± 0.045
OBI Top 10
-0.298
Microstructure
Mid Price
196.2650
Micro Price
196.2797
Spread
0.0153%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195.9 | 199.6604 | 186.4991 | 2.5 | 225.38 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 195.9
- Stop Loss: 199.6604
- Take Profit: 186.4991
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 199.6604 - 195.9 = 3.7604
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 195.9 - 186.4991 = 9.4009
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 9.4009 / 3.7604 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 416.7677 | 100 | 2.1275 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 3.7604
Taille de position = 8 / 3.7604 = 2.13
Taille de position USD = 2.13 x 195.9 = 417.27
Donc, tu peux acheter 2.13 avec un stoploss a 199.6604
Avec un position size USD de 417.27$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 2.13 x 3.7604 = 8.01
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8.01$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 2.13 x 9.4009 = 20.02
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 20.02$
Résumé
- Taille de position 2.13
- Taille de position USD 417.27
- Perte potentielle 8.01
- Gain potentiel 20.02
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.8 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.92 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.92 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9398 % | 101.05 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 195.9 | 199.6604 | 186.4991 | 2.5 | 225.38 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 195.9
- Stop Loss: 199.6604
- Take Profit: 186.4991
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 199.6604 - 195.9 = 3.7604
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 195.9 - 186.4991 = 9.4009
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 9.4009 / 3.7604 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.920%
(3.7604)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.694% | 0.4R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -0.904% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.102% | 0.1R | -0.904% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.102% | 0.1R | -1.802% | 0.9R | 0.1× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.102% | 0.1R | -2.864% | 1.5R | 0.0× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.102% | 0.1R | -2.864% | 1.5R | 0.0× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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