Short Trade on BTC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 0.012 BTC at 62982$ per unit. Take profit: 61273.3625 (2.71 %) & Stop Loss: 63665.455 (1.09 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 11:48:17
hyperliquid
BTC
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 11:48
→ 23:45
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 62982$
Qty 0.01171 BTC
Size 737.219$ (margin 100$) (leverage 7)
Risk Setup
TP 61273.3625 (+2.71%)
TP $ 20$
SL 63665.455 (-1.09%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.10%
/ -0.74$
MAE -0.38%
MFE +0.32%
0.3R
expires
14 Aug 23:48
Exit
time_expired
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69268)
#11 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 11:00
score du 14/08/2026 11:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6158
Quality Score
0.562
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
3
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.69B $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 11:45
14/08 11:45
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#11 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.09 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#11 / 47
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
80 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.09 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 0.62×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.74×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 0.65×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : bear_low_vol rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : bear_low Score : 3 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 06:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+2) 14/08 08:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 11:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5622
Score SMA
0.5167
Rank
#11
/ 47
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.6158
Rank Norm SMA
0.6108
Calculé le
14/08/2026 11:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4594 | r1h: 0.137% · r4h: -0.124% · r1d: -1.74% · r3d: -1.59% · ema21_slope: -0.0563% · dist_ema21: -0.562% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5000 | rs_1h: 0.000% · rs_4h: 0.000% · rs_1d: 0.00% · rs_3d: 0.00% · beta_24h: 1.000 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4586 | rvol_20: 1.50× · zscore_50: 0.055 · trend: 21.63% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7178 | ADX: 29.3 (trend) · Chop: 41.4 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.353% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.085%
(683.4550)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.081% | 0.1R | -0.360% | 0.3R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.081% | 0.1R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.257% | 0.2R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.324% | 0.3R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.324% | 0.3R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.324% | 0.3R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.62
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | — | near 0.0ATR | — | — | — | — | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | normal | bear_medium |
59%
|
noisy_chop 46% | late | near -0.7ATR | — | — | — | — | — | 14/08 08:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_low |
48%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14/08 11:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | — | near -0.3ATR | — | — | — | — | 14/08 11:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | early | 24b | — | 3.123×ATR | p14 | -1.052×ATR | p57 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 12b | — | 4.113×ATR | p61 | -1.782×ATR | p92 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 1.936×ATR | p23 | -0.344×ATR | p22 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 0×ATR | p0 | +1.251×ATR | p68 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8037
- reason: down_bo width=2.73×ATR dur=45b phase=extending
- stop_price: 63665.45500996
- tp_price: 61273.36247511
- atr:
- score: 0.80371286343612
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T03:48:09.465727
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.80371286343612
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0202
- obi_top10 : 0.0202
- micro_price : 62984.51800237
- spread_pct : 0.000159
- mid_price : 62984.55
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.0144
- obi_top5_std : 0.0413
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7416
- aggregation_tick : 100
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
63965.5
- balance_zone_bottom:
63318
- balance_zone_mid:
63641.75
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786561200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786719600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7315
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8037
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: extending
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786687200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
63318
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7111
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
9
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.4174
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
2
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_medium
- atr_entry : 237.05009957 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.7111
bars_since_breakout
9
distance_to_edge_atr
1.4174
Signaux confirmants (28)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:48 | 62982.00000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 11:54 | 62982.00000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 12:00 | 62982.00000000 | 0% |
| 4 | 12:06 | 63014.00000000 | +0.051% |
| 5 | 12:12 | 63014.00000000 | +0.051% |
| 6 | 12:18 | 63021.00000000 | +0.062% |
| 7 | 12:24 | 63021.00000000 | +0.062% |
| 8 | 12:30 | 63021.00000000 | +0.062% |
| 9 | 12:36 | 63144.00000000 | +0.257% |
| 10 | 12:42 | 63144.00000000 | +0.257% |
| 11 | 12:48 | 63189.00000000 | +0.329% |
| 12 | 12:54 | 63189.00000000 | +0.329% |
| 13 | 13:00 | 63189.00000000 | +0.329% |
| 14 | 13:06 | 63130.00000000 | +0.235% |
| 15 | 13:12 | 63130.00000000 | +0.235% |
| 16 | 13:18 | 63156.00000000 | +0.276% |
| 17 | 13:24 | 63156.00000000 | +0.276% |
| 18 | 13:30 | 63156.00000000 | +0.276% |
| 19 | 13:36 | 63188.00000000 | +0.327% |
| 20 | 13:42 | 63188.00000000 | +0.327% |
| 21 | 13:48 | 63095.00000000 | +0.179% |
| 22 | 13:54 | 63095.00000000 | +0.179% |
| 23 | 14:00 | 63095.00000000 | +0.179% |
| 24 | 14:06 | 63015.00000000 | +0.052% |
| 25 | 14:12 | 63015.00000000 | +0.052% |
| 26 | 14:18 | 63008.00000000 | +0.041% |
| 27 | 14:24 | 63008.00000000 | +0.041% |
| 28 | 14:30 | 63008.00000000 | +0.041% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7416ms
Confidence avant OB :
80%
→
80%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.020
avg -0.014
± 0.041
OBI Top 10
0.020
Microstructure
Mid Price
62,984.5500
Micro Price
62,984.5180
Spread
0.0002%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62982 | 63665.455 | 61273.3625 | 2.5 | 76179 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 62982
- Stop Loss: 63665.455
- Take Profit: 61273.3625
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63665.455 - 62982 = 683.455
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 62982 - 61273.3625 = 1708.6375
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1708.6375 / 683.455 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 737.219 | 100 | 0.01171 | 7.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 683.455
Taille de position = 8 / 683.455 = 0.01
Taille de position USD = 0.01 x 62982 = 629.82
Donc, tu peux acheter 0.01 avec un stoploss a 63665.455
Avec un position size USD de 629.82$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 0.01 x 683.455 = 6.83
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 6.83$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 0.01 x 1708.6375 = 17.09
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 17.09$
Résumé
- Taille de position 0.01
- Taille de position USD 629.82
- Perte potentielle 6.83
- Gain potentiel 17.09
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.71 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.09 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -0.74 $ | -0.10 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3842 % | 35.4 % | 19 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62982 | 63665.455 | 61273.3625 | 2.5 | 76179 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 62982
- Stop Loss: 63665.455
- Take Profit: 61273.3625
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 63665.455 - 62982 = 683.455
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 62982 - 61273.3625 = 1708.6375
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 1708.6375 / 683.455 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.085%
(683.4550)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.081% | 0.1R | -0.360% | 0.3R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.081% | 0.1R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.257% | 0.2R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.7× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.324% | 0.3R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.324% | 0.3R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.324% | 0.3R | -0.384% | 0.4R | 0.8× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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