Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 14078.81 JUP at 0.169$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1683 (0.65 %) & Stop Loss: 0.17 (0.35 %)
Short Trade on JUP (CatchTheWave)
With 14078.81 JUP at 0.169$ per unit. Take profit: 0.1683 (0.65 %) & Stop Loss: 0.17 (0.35 %)
Position
Entry 0.1694$
Qty 14078.8061 JUP
Size 2385.2313$ (margin 100$) (leverage 24)
Risk Setup
TP 0.1683 (+0.65%)
TP $ 15.49$
SL 0.17 (-0.35%)
SL $ 8.45$
RR 1.83
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5278
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.55×ATR |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.07×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 13:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.47092 15m : 0.382497 |
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : bull_low 5m_regime : bull_low_confirmed |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 12:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 13:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4511 | r1h: 0.054% · r4h: 1.315% · r1d: -0.12% · r3d: -4.28% · ema21_slope: -0.1084% · dist_ema21: 0.212% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4651 | rs_1h: -0.296% · rs_4h: 0.582% · rs_1d: -0.22% · rs_3d: -3.84% · beta_24h: 1.198 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.1682 | rvol_20: 0.53× · zscore_50: -0.988 · trend: -27.76% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7526 | ADX: 39.7 (trend) · Chop: 47.8 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.759% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.390% | 1.1R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.649% | 1.8R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.133% | 3.2R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 2.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.263% | 3.6R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 2.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.263% | 3.6R | -0.838% | 2.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near 0.1ATR | — | 0.65 | bear_high | -5.66% | -0.74 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
54%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.52 | bear_medium | -1.42% | -0.48 | 14/08 12:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.49 | range_low | -0.75% | -0.09 | 14/08 13:00 |
| 15m | ↑ up | transition | bullish_transition | strong | explosive | normal | range_low |
43%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | — | — | 0.41 | range_low | +0.06% | +0.12 | 14/08 13:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 43b | — | 9.981×ATR | p94 | -2.55×ATR | p98 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 31b | — | 7.398×ATR | p100 | -1.436×ATR | p78 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 6b | — | 2.609×ATR | p51 | +0.302×ATR | p16 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 3b | — | 2.384×ATR | p34 | +2.464×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
62904.9
0.0035624
63129
0.47092
63063.4
0.00211797
63197
0.382497
63604.8
-0.00655363
63188
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0.3975
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0.2998
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0.6293
0.5938
0.2122
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-0.0689
0.3333
1.207
-0.2216
0.4
0.6
-1
6
1
0.5356
0.3655
4.7031
0.5
1.6016
4.7243
-0.2216
0.5284
0.2761
0.64
0.0679
0.5231
0.5183
0.789
0.2122
-12.565
3.3838
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (6)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13:38 | 0.16942000 | +0.012% |
| 2 | 13:44 | 0.16928000 | -0.071% |
| 3 | 13:50 | 0.16958000 | +0.106% |
| 4 | 13:56 | 0.16955000 | +0.089% |
| 5 | 14:04 | 0.17000000 | +0.354% |
| 6 | 14:09 | 0.16975000 | +0.207% |
Market Structure Score: 1
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 11:55:00 | 0.16474 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 12:35:00 | 0.16627 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 13:30:00 | 0.1653 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 14:00:00 | 0.16611 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 14:20:00 | 0.1653 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 14:35:00 | 0.16664 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 15:00:00 | 0.16617 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 16:15:00 | 0.16878 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 16:50:00 | 0.16756 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 17:35:00 | 0.16946 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 03:00:00 | 0.16791 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 05:30:00 | 0.16865 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 06:45:00 | 0.16539 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 09:00:00 | 0.16724 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 09:30:00 | 0.16508 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 11:45:00 | 0.16474 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 12:30:00 | 0.16627 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 13:30:00 | 0.1653 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 14:15:00 | 0.1653 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 17:30:00 | 0.16939 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 18:00:00 | 0.17334 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 22:00:00 | 0.17793 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 08:00:00 | 0.169 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-12 12:00:00 | 0.17466 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 21:00:00 | 0.16871 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-13 04:00:00 | 0.17334 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-13 16:00:00 | 0.16699 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-13 22:00:00 | 0.17073 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 11:00:00 | 0.16474 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 17:00:00 | 0.16939 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1694 | 0.17 | 0.1683 | 1.83 | 0.225 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.17 - 0.1694 = 0.00060000000000002
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1694 - 0.1683 = 0.0011
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0011 / 0.00060000000000002 = 1.8333
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2385.2313 | 100 | 14078.8061 | 24.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00060000000000002 = 13333.33
Taille de position USD = 13333.33 x 0.1694 = 2258.67
Donc, tu peux acheter 13333.33 avec un stoploss a 0.17
Avec un position size USD de 2258.67$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 13333.33 x 0.00060000000000002 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 13333.33 x 0.0011 = 14.67
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 14.67$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.65 % | 15.49 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.35 % | 8.45 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.45 $ | -0.35 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.4073 % | 114.99 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1694 | 0.17 | 0.1683 | 1.83 | 0.225 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.17 - 0.1694 = 0.00060000000000002
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.1694 - 0.1683 = 0.0011
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0011 / 0.00060000000000002 = 1.8333
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| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.390% | 1.1R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.649% | 1.8R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 1.2× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +1.133% | 3.2R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 2.0× | 48 |
| 8h | +1.263% | 3.6R | -0.555% | 1.6R | 2.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +1.263% | 3.6R | -0.838% | 2.4R | 1.5× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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