Short Trade on AAVE (momentum_pullback_v1)
With 6.16 AAVE at 85.585$ per unit. Take profit: 84.8777 (0.83 %) & Stop Loss: 86.883 (1.52 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 17:45:10
hyperliquid
AAVE
SHORT
momentum_pullback_v1
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 17:45
→ 00:00
· 6 hours
Position
Entry 85.585$
Qty 6.1633 AAVE
Size 527.4884$ (margin 100$) (leverage 5)
Risk Setup
TP 84.8777 (+0.83%)
TP $ 4.36$
SL 86.883 (-1.52%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.54
Status
loss
PnL
-1.52%
/ -8$
MAE -1.92%
MFE +0.38%
0.3R
expires
15 Aug 05:45
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69563)
#10 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 17:00
score du 14/08/2026 17:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.8148
Quality Score
0.567
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
5.4M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 17:30
14/08 17:30
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#10 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.52 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#10 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
88 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.52 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.59×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.68×ATR |
| 1d | near | -2.18×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 17:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium_confirmed (+1) 14/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.5674
Score SMA
0.5229
Rank
#10
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.8148
Rank Norm SMA
0.5999
Calculé le
14/08/2026 17:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3830 | r1h: -0.676% · r4h: -1.133% · r1d: -2.92% · r3d: -2.82% · ema21_slope: -0.1129% · dist_ema21: -1.119% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4182 | rs_1h: -0.606% · rs_4h: -0.805% · rs_1d: -2.14% · rs_3d: -1.56% · beta_24h: 1.862 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.7002 | rvol_20: 1.97× · zscore_50: 1.389 · trend: 79.29% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7193 | ADX: 36.9 (trend) · Chop: 49.1 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.782% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.517%
(1.2980)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -0.085% | 0.1R | 4.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -0.906% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -1.121% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -1.891% | 1.3R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.383% | 0.3R | -1.923% | 1.3R | 0.2× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.52
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 41% | mid | near -2.2ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.26% | -0.38 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -1.7ATR | — | 0.48 | bear_medium | -1.66% | +0.03 | 14/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | normal | bear_medium_confirmed |
65%
|
noisy_chop 47% | mid | near -0.6ATR | — | 0.58 | bear_low | -1.07% | -0.20 | 14/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | strong | fading | compression | bear_low |
47%
|
noisy_chop 41% | early | near -1.8ATR | — | 0.58 | range_low | -0.30% | -0.07 | 14/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | mid | 18b | — | 3.987×ATR | p55 | -1.286×ATR | p70 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 16b | — | 3.568×ATR | p41 | -1.635×ATR | p82 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 5b | — | 1.743×ATR | p11 | -1.245×ATR | p73 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early | 7b | — | 2.776×ATR | p29 | -1.116×ATR | p51 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_pullback_v1 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 86.883
- tp_price: 84.87772914
- atr: 0.28290834
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T09:45:10+00:00
Details
- rank: 43
- total: 49
- score: 0.383
- avg_rank_8h: 30.4
- rank_velocity: 12.6
- pullback_depth_atr: 6.54
- trigger_price: 85.641
- fip_24h: -0.167
- confidence: 0.875
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.585 | 86.883 | 84.8777 | 0.54 | 134.31 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 85.585
- Stop Loss: 86.883
- Take Profit: 84.8777
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 86.883 - 85.585 = 1.298
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 85.585 - 84.8777 = 0.70729999999999
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.70729999999999 / 1.298 = 0.5449
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 527.4884 | 100 | 6.1633 | 5.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 1.298
Taille de position = 8 / 1.298 = 6.16
Taille de position USD = 6.16 x 85.585 = 527.2
Donc, tu peux acheter 6.16 avec un stoploss a 86.883
Avec un position size USD de 527.2$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 6.16 x 1.298 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 6.16 x 0.70729999999999 = 4.36
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.36$
Résumé
- Taille de position 6.16
- Taille de position USD 527.2
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.36
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5449
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.83 % | 4.36 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.52 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -1.52 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.7071 % | 112.56 % | 3 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.585 | 86.883 | 84.8777 | 0.54 | 134.31 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 85.585
- Stop Loss: 86.883
- Take Profit: 84.8777
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 86.883 - 85.585 = 1.298
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 85.585 - 84.8777 = 0.70729999999999
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.70729999999999 / 1.298 = 0.5449
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_pullback_v1 (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.517%
(1.2980)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -0.085% | 0.1R | 4.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -0.906% | 0.6R | 0.4× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -1.121% | 0.7R | 0.3× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.383% | 0.3R | -1.891% | 1.3R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.383% | 0.3R | -1.923% | 1.3R | 0.2× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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