Short Trade on ARB (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 5228.79 ARB at 0.0735$ per unit. Take profit: 0.0697 (5.2 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07505 (2.08 %)
14 Aug 2026 at 18:07:41
hyperliquid
ARB
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
14 Aug 2026 18:07
→ 22:20
· 4 hours
Position
Entry 0.07352$
Qty 5228.7923 ARB
Size 384.4208$ (margin 100$) (leverage 4)
Risk Setup
TP 0.0697 (+5.2%)
TP $ 19.97$
SL 0.07505 (-2.08%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-2.08%
/ -8$
MAE -2.54%
MFE +0.87%
0.4R
expires
15 Aug 06:07
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 69602)
#33 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 14/08/2026 18:00
score du 14/08/2026 18:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.1518
Quality Score
0.470
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
1
OK
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
1.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
14/08 18:00
14/08 18:00
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#33 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+2
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.08 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#33 / 49
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
96 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+8
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
2.08 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -2.07×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.13×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.21×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 18:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 17:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot)
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.80
Transition risk :
0.20
Score contribution (this trade)
+2
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.63
Snapshot évalué : 14/08 18:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Score brut
0.4704
Score SMA
0.4598
Rank
#33
/ 49
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.1518
Rank Norm SMA
0.1987
Calculé le
14/08/2026 18:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.3746 | r1h: -0.726% · r4h: -1.718% · r1d: -1.89% · r3d: -6.24% · ema21_slope: -0.0556% · dist_ema21: -1.225% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.3851 | rs_1h: -0.699% · rs_4h: -1.537% · rs_1d: -0.94% · rs_3d: -5.04% · beta_24h: 1.100 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4448 | rvol_20: 1.58× · zscore_50: 0.230 · trend: -7.08% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.4851 | ADX: 12.1 (weak) · Chop: 52.5 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.840% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.081%
(0.0015)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -0.190% | 0.1R | 4.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -1.469% | 0.7R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -1.863% | 0.9R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -2.544% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.871% | 0.4R | -2.544% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -2.544% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.78
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.26% | -0.65 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | explosive | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 40% | mid | near -0.1ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_medium | -1.66% | -0.35 | 14/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | normal | bear_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | near -2.1ATR | — | 0.45 | bear_low | -1.10% | -0.06 | 14/08 17:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | normal | bear_low_confirmed |
51%
|
noisy_chop 51% | late | near -1.9ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.30% | -0.11 | 14/08 17:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 7.089×ATR | p89 | -1.398×ATR | p63 |
| 4h | ↓ down | mid | 17b | — | 4.86×ATR | p79 | -1.128×ATR | p67 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 4b | — | 2.308×ATR | p30 | -1.388×ATR | p78 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 1b | — | 0.77×ATR | p7 | -2.989×ATR | p100 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.9634
- reason: down_bo width=2.80×ATR dur=37b phase=fresh|ob:ask_pressure(+0.07)|ob:obi_moderate(+0.05)
- stop_price: 0.07504999
- tp_price: 0.06969502
- atr:
- score: 0.84337015535003
- expires_at: 2026-08-15T10:07:33.173546
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84337015535003
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : -0.2526
- obi_top10 : -0.0294
- micro_price : 0.07351204
- spread_pct : 0.136054
- mid_price : 0.07355
- bid_wall_price : 0.0729
- bid_wall_size : 2544600.14
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.074
- ask_wall_size : 2529021.56
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : -0.2512
- obi_top5_std : 0.0024
- pressure_side : ask
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7156
- aggregation_tick : 0.0001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.07583
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.07415
- balance_zone_mid:
0.07499
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786615200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786744800
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.8004
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
37
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8434
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786741200
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.07415
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.9459
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.0502
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
7
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.0005999 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
37
inside_close_ratio
0.9459
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.0502
Signaux confirmants (20)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:07 | 0.07352000 | 0% |
| 2 | 18:13 | 0.07352000 | 0% |
| 3 | 18:19 | 0.07361000 | +0.122% |
| 4 | 18:24 | 0.07361000 | +0.122% |
| 5 | 18:31 | 0.07361000 | +0.122% |
| 6 | 18:36 | 0.07321000 | -0.422% |
| 7 | 18:42 | 0.07321000 | -0.422% |
| 8 | 18:48 | 0.07339000 | -0.177% |
| 9 | 18:54 | 0.07339000 | -0.177% |
| 10 | 19:01 | 0.07339000 | -0.177% |
| 11 | 19:07 | 0.07337000 | -0.204% |
| 12 | 19:13 | 0.07337000 | -0.204% |
| 13 | 19:19 | 0.07343000 | -0.122% |
| 14 | 19:24 | 0.07343000 | -0.122% |
| 15 | 19:31 | 0.07343000 | -0.122% |
| 16 | 19:37 | 0.07390000 | +0.517% |
| 17 | 19:42 | 0.07390000 | +0.517% |
| 18 | 19:49 | 0.07414000 | +0.843% |
| 19 | 19:54 | 0.07414000 | +0.843% |
| 20 | 20:01 | 0.07414000 | +0.843% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
↓ ask
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7156ms
Confidence avant OB :
84%
→
96%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
-0.253
avg -0.251
± 0.002
OBI Top 10
-0.029
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.0736
Micro Price
0.0735
Spread
0.1361%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.0729
Size
2,544,600.14
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.0740
Size
2,529,021.56
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07352 | 0.07505 | 0.0697 | 2.5 | 0.2102 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07352
- Stop Loss: 0.07505
- Take Profit: 0.0697
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07505 - 0.07352 = 0.00153
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07352 - 0.0697 = 0.00382
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00382 / 0.00153 = 2.4967
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 384.4208 | 100 | 5228.7923 | 4.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.00153
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00153 = 5228.76
Taille de position USD = 5228.76 x 0.07352 = 384.42
Donc, tu peux acheter 5228.76 avec un stoploss a 0.07505
Avec un position size USD de 384.42$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 5228.76 x 0.00153 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 5228.76 x 0.00382 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position 5228.76
- Taille de position USD 384.42
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4967
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 5.2 % | 19.97 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.08 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -2.08 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2579 % | 108.5 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07352 | 0.07505 | 0.0697 | 2.5 | 0.2102 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.07352
- Stop Loss: 0.07505
- Take Profit: 0.0697
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07505 - 0.07352 = 0.00153
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.07352 - 0.0697 = 0.00382
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00382 / 0.00153 = 2.4967
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
[1.1] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.0697
[entry_price] => 0.07352
[stop_loss] => 0.075203
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-15 02:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
[1.2] => Array
(
[take_profit] => 0.0697
[entry_price] => 0.07352
[stop_loss] => 0.075356
[rr_ratio] => 2.08
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.2
[closed_at] => 2026-08-15 02:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -2.081%
(0.0015)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -0.190% | 0.1R | 4.6× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -1.469% | 0.7R | 0.6× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -1.863% | 0.9R | 0.5× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -2.544% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.871% | 0.4R | -2.544% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.871% | 0.4R | -2.544% | 1.2R | 0.3× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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