Short Trade on ARB (BosPullback)
With 10172.81 ARB at 0.0745$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07253 (2.64 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07529 (1.06 %)
Short Trade on ARB (BosPullback)
With 10172.81 ARB at 0.0745$ per unit. Take profit: 0.07253 (2.64 %) & Stop Loss: 0.07529 (1.06 %)
Position
Entry 0.0745$
Qty 10172.8106 ARB
Size 757.8744$ (margin 100$) (leverage 8)
Risk Setup
TP 0.07253 (+2.64%)
TP $ 20.04$
SL 0.07529 (-1.06%)
SL $ 8.04$
RR 2.49
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.3029
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | near | -0.82×ATR |
| 1d | near | -1.21×ATR |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : bear_low (+1) 14/08 20:00 Score : +2 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
1H_regime : bear_high 15m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 13/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 14/08 19:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4220 | r1h: 1.063% · r4h: -0.790% · r1d: -1.44% · r3d: -7.66% · ema21_slope: -0.0573% · dist_ema21: -0.527% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4529 | rs_1h: 0.852% · rs_4h: -0.855% · rs_1d: -0.67% · rs_3d: -6.77% · beta_24h: 1.155 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.5245 | rvol_20: 1.61× · zscore_50: 0.471 · trend: 37.14% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5256 | ADX: 15.2 (weak) · Chop: 50.6 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.889% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.067% | 0.1R | -0.403% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.067% | 0.1R | -0.524% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.067% | 0.1R | -1.195% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.349% | 0.3R | -1.195% | 1.1R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.765% | 0.7R | -1.195% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | near -1.2ATR | — | 0.71 | bear_high | -5.26% | -0.65 | 13/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↔ neutral | range | range | strong | fading | normal | bear_high |
55%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -0.8ATR | — | 0.54 | bear_medium | -1.74% | -0.45 | 14/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | explosive | expansion | bear_high |
61%
|
noisy_chop 39% | early | — | near -0.2ATR | 0.45 | bear_low | -0.87% | -0.04 | 14/08 19:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | strong | explosive | expansion | range_low |
45%
|
noisy_chop 47% | late | — | — | — | range_low | -0.08% | -0.09 | 14/08 19:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 33b | — | 7.089×ATR | p89 | -1.398×ATR | p63 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 17b | — | 5.217×ATR | p82 | -1.644×ATR | p86 |
| 1h | ↑ up | early | 1b | — | 1.913×ATR | p13 | -0.641×ATR | p38 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 5b | — | 4.399×ATR | p85 | +0.606×ATR | p34 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
0.07288
148
0.2499
0.6084
0.3853
0.2716
0.4783
1
0.3379
0.3736
0.2716
0.6736
0.687
0.1462
-0.1003
-0.0822
0
-0.5451
-1.6621
0.3
0.7
-1
1
1
0.4569
0.601
3.6359
0.55
1.9421
3.748
-1.6621
0.3508
0.2086
0.52
0.2424
0.6384
0.4835
0.7054
0.1462
-10.8571
1.8587
1
0
0
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[price] => 0.07506
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[price] => 0.0755
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[time] => 2026-08-14 03:00:00
[price] => 0.07485
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[label] => LL
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[price] => 0.07531
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[time] => 2026-08-14 12:15:00
[price] => 0.0746
[kind] => high
[label] => LH
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[time] => 2026-08-14 13:00:00
[price] => 0.07414
[kind] => low
[label] => HL
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[time] => 2026-08-14 13:45:00
[price] => 0.07488
[kind] => high
[label] => HH
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0.07288
0.07523
0.07523
0.07288
0.07667
0.07536
0.076015
1.1518
Signal Details
Market Structure Score: 0
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0745 | 0.07529 | 0.07253 | 2.49 | 0.2173 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07529 - 0.0745 = 0.00079
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0745 - 0.07253 = 0.00197
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00197 / 0.00079 = 2.4937
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 757.8744 | 100 | 10172.8106 | 8.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.00079 = 10126.58
Taille de position USD = 10126.58 x 0.0745 = 754.43
Donc, tu peux acheter 10126.58 avec un stoploss a 0.07529
Avec un position size USD de 754.43$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 10126.58 x 0.00079 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 10126.58 x 0.00197 = 19.95
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.95$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.64 % | 20.04 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.06 % | 8.04 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.04 $ | -1.06 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1812 % | 111.39 % | 5 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0745 | 0.07529 | 0.07253 | 2.49 | 0.2173 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.07529 - 0.0745 = 0.00079
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.0745 - 0.07253 = 0.00197
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.00197 / 0.00079 = 2.4937
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[take_profit] => 0.07253
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[stop_loss] => 0.075369
[rr_ratio] => 2.27
[sl_change_percentage] => 1.1
[closed_at] => 2026-08-15 02:30:00+00
[result] => loss
)
)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.067% | 0.1R | -0.403% | 0.4R | 0.2× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.067% | 0.1R | -0.524% | 0.5R | 0.1× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.067% | 0.1R | -1.195% | 1.1R | 0.1× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.349% | 0.3R | -1.195% | 1.1R | 0.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.765% | 0.7R | -1.195% | 1.1R | 0.6× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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