Short Trade on XRP (CatchTheWave)
With 6023.55 XRP at 1.006$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0034 (0.27 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0074 (0.13 %)
Short Trade on XRP (CatchTheWave)
With 6023.55 XRP at 1.006$ per unit. Take profit: 1.0034 (0.27 %) & Stop Loss: 1.0074 (0.13 %)
Position
Entry 1.0061$
Qty 6023.5521 XRP
Size 6060.2958$ (margin 100$) (leverage 61)
Risk Setup
TP 1.0034 (+0.27%)
TP $ 16.26$
SL 1.0074 (-0.13%)
SL $ 7.83$
RR 2.08
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Avg Rank 8h: 0.6197
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | 2.40×ATR |
| 4h | near | -1.36×ATR |
| 1d | clear | — |
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | OK |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : bear_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 1 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 14/08 23:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
5m : 0.467825 15m : 0.51416 |
1H_regime : range_medium 15m_regime : range_low 5m_regime : range_low |
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 14/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 14/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : range_medium (0) 14/08 22:00 Score : +5 / ±6 |
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | transition | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | transition | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.5112 | r1h: 0.380% · r4h: 1.240% · r1d: -0.61% · r3d: -1.59% · ema21_slope: -0.0310% · dist_ema21: 0.300% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.5222 | rs_1h: 0.246% · rs_4h: 0.849% · rs_1d: -0.04% · rs_3d: -0.63% · beta_24h: 0.745 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.2343 | rvol_20: 0.55× · zscore_50: -0.470 · trend: -7.37% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.6510 | ADX: 18.1 (weak) · Chop: 37.6 (trend) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.447% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.268% | 2.1R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 2.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.268% | 2.1R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 2.5× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.418% | 3.2R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 3.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.577% | 4.5R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 5.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.698% | 5.4R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 6.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
| Prediction 1 | Probability |
|---|---|
|
|
n/a |
| Prediction 2 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| Prediction 3 | Probability |
|---|---|
| n/a |
| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 40% | late | — | — | 0.86 | bear_high | -5.24% | -0.61 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | balanced | compression | bear_high |
62%
|
noisy_chop 40% | early | near -1.4ATR | — | 0.79 | bear_medium | -1.46% | -0.05 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | early_expansion | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | expansion | range_medium |
44%
|
noisy_chop 38% | mid | — | — | 0.63 | range_low | -0.65% | -0.03 | 14/08 22:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | balanced | compression | range_low |
41%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | — | range_low | +0.10% | +0.04 | 14/08 22:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 25b | — | 5.988×ATR | p85 | -1.693×ATR | p88 |
| 4h | ↓ down | early | 19b | — | 2.638×ATR | p29 | -0.75×ATR | p49 |
| 1h | ↑ up | mid | 4b | — | 3.942×ATR | p76 | +0.59×ATR | p35 |
| 15m | ↑ up | late | 17b | — | 8.86×ATR | p100 | +2.607×ATR | p98 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Indicators:
62982.7
0.00249739
63140
0.467825
63040.3
0.00158048
63140
0.51416
63424.7
-0.00477382
63122
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1
0.5331
0.4884
4.8203
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2.3645
5.4707
0.1408
0.2202
0.2651
0.42
0.2764
0.5076
0.5253
0.7482
0.3539
-8.2846
4.5384
1
0
0
Signal Details
Signaux confirmants (3)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23:08 | 1.00610000 | 0% |
| 2 | 23:13 | 1.00650000 | +0.04% |
| 3 | 23:19 | 1.00700000 | +0.089% |
Market Structure Score: 2
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 20:15:00 | 0.99663 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 20:45:00 | 0.99668 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 21:00:00 | 0.99939 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 22:20:00 | 0.98701 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 00:00:00 | 0.99964 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 00:20:00 | 0.99762 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 00:45:00 | 1.001 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 01:30:00 | 1.0013 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 02:15:00 | 1.0057 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-15 03:05:00 | 1.0066 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 04:15:00 | 1.0125 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 07:00:00 | 1.0032 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 08:45:00 | 1.0066 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 09:30:00 | 1.001 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 12:45:00 | 0.9997 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 13:15:00 | 1.0053 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 15:30:00 | 1.009 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 20:15:00 | 0.99663 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 22:15:00 | 0.98701 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 03:00:00 | 1.0066 | ↑ High |
Windows: Left: 5 | Right: 5
Market Structure Features:
SL & TP Pivot Distance:
| DateTime | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 14:00:00 | 0.99107 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-11 21:00:00 | 1.027 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 09:00:00 | 1.0252 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-12 23:00:00 | 1.0005 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-13 07:00:00 | 1.015 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-13 16:00:00 | 0.99789 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-14 02:00:00 | 1.0138 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 15:00:00 | 1.009 | ↑ High |
| 2026-08-14 22:00:00 | 0.98701 | ↓ Low |
| 2026-08-15 03:00:00 | 1.0058 | ↑ High |
Trend
Current Swing
Structure
Context
Order Book Imbalance
Microstructure
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0061 | 1.0074 | 1.0034 | 2.08 | 1.3755 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0074 - 1.0061 = 0.0013000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0061 - 1.0034 = 0.0026999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0026999999999999 / 0.0013000000000001 = 2.0769
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6060.2958 | 100 | 6023.5521 | 61.00 |
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0013000000000001 = 6153.85
Taille de position USD = 6153.85 x 1.0061 = 6191.39
Donc, tu peux acheter 6153.85 avec un stoploss a 1.0074
Avec un position size USD de 6191.39$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 6153.85 x 0.0013000000000001 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 6153.85 x 0.0026999999999999 = 16.62
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 16.62$
Résumé
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.27 % | 16.26 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.13 % | 7.83 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 16.26 $ | 0.27 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1093 % | 84.6 % | 2 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0061 | 1.0074 | 1.0034 | 2.08 | 1.3755 |
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
Calcul:
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 1.0074 - 1.0061 = 0.0013000000000001
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 1.0061 - 1.0034 = 0.0026999999999999
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0026999999999999 / 0.0013000000000001 = 2.0769
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)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.268% | 2.1R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 2.5× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.268% | 2.1R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 2.5× | 24 |
| 4h ★ | +0.418% | 3.2R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 3.8× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.577% | 4.5R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 5.3× | 96 |
| 12h | +0.698% | 5.4R | -0.109% | 0.9R | 6.4× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
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