Short Trade on KAITO (momentum_rotation_v2)
With 493.84 KAITO at 0.364$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3553 (2.5 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3806 (4.45 %)
15 Aug 2026 at 19:10:04
hyperliquid
KAITO
SHORT
momentum_rotation_v2
hyperliquid
15 Aug 2026 19:10
→ 22:30
· 3 hours
Position
Entry 0.3644$
Qty 493.843 KAITO
Size 179.9663$ (margin 100$) (leverage 2)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3553 (+2.5%)
TP $ 4.49$
SL 0.3806 (-4.45%)
SL $ 8$
RR 0.56
Status
win
PnL
+2.50%
/ +4.49$
MAE -3.63%
MFE +7.49%
1.7R
expires
16 Aug 01:10
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 70780)
#40 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 15/08/2026 19:00
score du 15/08/2026 19:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.0588
Quality Score
0.364
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
3.7M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
15/08 19:02
15/08 19:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#40 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+6
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.45 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD TRADE
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#40 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
100 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+7
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
4.45 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | 0.20×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
3/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 15/08 19:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 14/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 15/08 16:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_high (+1) 15/08 18:00 Score : +6 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1554
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
15/08 19:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
15/08/2026 19:00
Score brut
0.3638
Score SMA
0.3769
Rank
#40
/ 41
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.0588
Rank Norm SMA
0.0231
Calculé le
15/08/2026 19:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.0748 | r1h: -1.495% · r4h: -4.394% · r1d: -8.46% · r3d: -20.28% · ema21_slope: -0.2715% · dist_ema21: -5.239% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.1075 | rs_1h: -1.479% · rs_4h: -4.551% · rs_1d: -8.89% · rs_3d: -19.83% · beta_24h: 2.818 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.4766 | rvol_20: 1.75× · zscore_50: 0.175 · trend: -0.82% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.7943 | ADX: 42.6 (trend) · Chop: 45.7 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 1.902% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.446%
(0.0162)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.385% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.144% | 0.9R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +7.489% | 1.7R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 2.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +7.489% | 1.7R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 2.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +7.489% | 1.7R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 2.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: 30
ML Pullback Score: 1.5
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
53%
|
choppy 53% | late | near 0.2ATR | — | 0.36 | bear_high | -5.13% | -1.00 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
50%
|
noisy_chop 43% | late | — | — | -0.05 | bear_medium | -1.18% | -0.96 | 15/08 16:00 |
| 1h | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
56%
|
noisy_chop 48% | late | — | — | -0.02 | range_low | -0.38% | -0.66 | 15/08 18:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | transition | bearish_transition | strong | fading | compression | bear_high |
60%
|
noisy_chop 45% | late | — | — | 0.09 | range_low | +0.12% | -0.43 | 15/08 18:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 17b | — | 9.106×ATR | p83 | -3.433×ATR | p100 |
| 4h | ↓ down | late | 85b | — | 40.186×ATR | p100 | -3.917×ATR | p97 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 23b | — | 5.956×ATR | p95 | -2.9×ATR | p92 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 15b | — | 5.694×ATR | p97 | -2.763×ATR | p96 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
momentum_rotation_v2 - SELL
Indicators:
- stop_price: 0.38061948
- tp_price: 0.3553095
- atr: 0.00647979
- expires_at: 2026-08-16T05:10:04+00:00
Details
- rank: 41
- total: 41
- score: 0.0748
- delta_2h: -0.0619
- extension_atr: -2.82
- trend_phase:
- trend_direction:
- rank_norm_sma_8h: 0.0588
- confidence: 1
Signal Details
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3644 | 0.3806 | 0.3553 | 0.56 | 0.3499 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3644
- Stop Loss: 0.3806
- Take Profit: 0.3553
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3806 - 0.3644 = 0.0162
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3644 - 0.3553 = 0.0091
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0091 / 0.0162 = 0.5617
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179.9663 | 100 | 493.843 | 2.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0162
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0162 = 493.83
Taille de position USD = 493.83 x 0.3644 = 179.95
Donc, tu peux acheter 493.83 avec un stoploss a 0.3806
Avec un position size USD de 179.95$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 493.83 x 0.0162 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 493.83 x 0.0091 = 4.49
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 4.49$
Résumé
- Taille de position 493.83
- Taille de position USD 179.95
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 4.49
- Risk-Reward Ratio 0.5617
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.5 % | 4.49 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 4.45 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| 4.49 $ | 2.50 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -3.6251 % | 81.54 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3644 | 0.3806 | 0.3553 | 0.56 | 0.3499 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.3644
- Stop Loss: 0.3806
- Take Profit: 0.3553
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3806 - 0.3644 = 0.0162
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.3644 - 0.3553 = 0.0091
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0091 / 0.0162 = 0.5617
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: momentum_rotation_v2 (★
6h)
Initial Risk: -4.446%
(0.0162)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -2.385% | 0.5R | 0.0× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.000% | 0.0R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 0.0× | 24 |
| 4h | +4.144% | 0.9R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 1.1× | 48 |
| 6h ★ | +7.489% | 1.7R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 2.1× | 72 |
| 8h | +7.489% | 1.7R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 2.1× | 96 |
| 12h | +7.489% | 1.7R | -3.625% | 0.8R | 2.1× | 144 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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