Short Trade on ONDO (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1839.78 ONDO at 0.323$ per unit. Take profit: 0.3122 (3.34 %) & Stop Loss: 0.3274 (1.36 %)
15 Aug 2026 at 22:08:37
hyperliquid
ONDO
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
15 Aug 2026 22:08
→ 09:05
· 10 hours
Position
Entry 0.323$
Qty 1839.7783 ONDO
Size 594.3036$ (margin 100$) (leverage 6)
Risk Setup
TP 0.3122 (+3.34%)
TP $ 19.87$
SL 0.3274 (-1.36%)
SL $ 8.1$
RR 2.45
Status
loss
PnL
-1.36%
/ -8.1$
MAE -1.74%
MFE +0.19%
0.1R
expires
16 Aug 10:08
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 70895)
#15 / 41
OUT
seuil : top 15
score du 15/08/2026 22:00
score du 15/08/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.5831
Quality Score
0.511
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
2.0M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
15/08 22:01
15/08 22:01
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#15 / 41
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
+4
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.36 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#15 / 41
OUT
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
90 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+5
OK
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
1.36 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | clear | — |
| 4h | clear | — |
| 1d | near | -0.17×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | OK |
| 4h | — | — | OK |
| 1d | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 15/08 22:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bear_high (+3) 14/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 15/08 21:00 Score : +4 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1557
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
15/08 22:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
15/08/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.5110
Score SMA
0.4944
Rank
#15
/ 41
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.5831
Rank Norm SMA
0.4419
Calculé le
15/08/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4596 | r1h: -0.209% · r4h: -0.218% · r1d: -1.22% · r3d: -1.96% · ema21_slope: -0.0429% · dist_ema21: -0.453% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4641 | rs_1h: -0.181% · rs_4h: -0.073% · rs_1d: -1.25% · rs_3d: -1.34% · beta_24h: 1.734 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3785 | rvol_20: 0.23× · zscore_50: -0.322 · trend: 198.40% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.5429 | ADX: 18.6 (weak) · Chop: 52.0 (neutral) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.576% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.362%
(0.0044)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.709% | 0.5R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.790% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.790% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.969% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.186% | 0.1R | -1.737% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -3.607% | 2.7R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.32
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | grind | compression | bear_high |
52%
|
noisy_chop 41% | late | near -0.2ATR | — | 0.63 | bear_high | -5.28% | -0.95 | 14/08 20:00 |
| 4h | — | ||||||||||||||||
| 1h | ↓ down | range | range | strong | grind | compression | bear_medium |
60%
|
noisy_chop 45% | mid | — | — | 0.56 | range_low | -0.48% | -0.13 | 15/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | balanced | expansion_after_compression | range_low |
39%
|
noisy_chop 39% | mid | near 0.3ATR | — | — | range_low | -0.02% | -0.03 | 15/08 21:30 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↓ down | late | 16b | — | 5.676×ATR | p75 | -1.859×ATR | p86 |
| 1h | ↓ down | mid | 12b | — | 2.824×ATR | p57 | -0.857×ATR | p54 |
| 15m | ↓ down | mid | 3b | — | 4.066×ATR | p69 | -0.563×ATR | p22 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.9007
- reason: down_bo width=2.35×ATR dur=39b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 0.32737835
- tp_price: 0.31215913
- atr:
- score: 0.90066327050906
- expires_at: 2026-08-16T14:08:30.040719
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.90066327050906
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.1222
- obi_top10 : 0.1444
- micro_price : 0.32265377
- spread_pct : 0.061996
- mid_price : 0.3227
- bid_wall_price : 0.322
- bid_wall_size : 2532532.64
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price : 0.325
- ask_wall_size : 1512586.7
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.1228
- obi_top5_std : 0.0005
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 6977
- aggregation_tick : 0.001
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
0.32932
- balance_zone_bottom:
0.325075
- balance_zone_mid:
0.3271975
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786708800
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786845600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.3473
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
39
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.9007
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786842000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
0.325075
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.6667
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
1.1308
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
0
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
4
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
5
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 0.00180849 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
39
inside_close_ratio
0.6667
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
1.1308
Signaux confirmants (10)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:08 | 0.32303000 | +0.009% |
| 2 | 22:14 | 0.32303000 | +0.009% |
| 3 | 22:20 | 0.32249000 | -0.158% |
| 4 | 22:26 | 0.32249000 | -0.158% |
| 5 | 22:33 | 0.32249000 | -0.158% |
| 6 | 22:38 | 0.32506000 | +0.638% |
| 7 | 22:44 | 0.32506000 | +0.638% |
| 8 | 22:50 | 0.32504000 | +0.632% |
| 9 | 22:56 | 0.32504000 | +0.632% |
| 10 | 23:03 | 0.32504000 | +0.632% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
6977ms
Confidence avant OB :
90%
→
90%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.122
avg 0.123
± 0.001
OBI Top 10
0.144
Microstructure
Mid Price
0.3227
Micro Price
0.3227
Spread
0.0620%
↑ Bid Wall (Support)
Price
0.3220
Size
2,532,532.64
↓ Ask Wall (Resistance)
Price
0.3250
Size
1,512,586.70
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.323 | 0.3274 | 0.3122 | 2.45 | 0.4941 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.323
- Stop Loss: 0.3274
- Take Profit: 0.3122
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3274 - 0.323 = 0.0044
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.323 - 0.3122 = 0.0108
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0108 / 0.0044 = 2.4545
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 594.3036 | 100 | 1839.7783 | 6.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 0.0044
Taille de position = 8 / 0.0044 = 1818.18
Taille de position USD = 1818.18 x 0.323 = 587.27
Donc, tu peux acheter 1818.18 avec un stoploss a 0.3274
Avec un position size USD de 587.27$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1818.18 x 0.0044 = 8
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 8$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1818.18 x 0.0108 = 19.64
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.64$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1818.18
- Taille de position USD 587.27
- Perte potentielle 8
- Gain potentiel 19.64
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.4545
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 3.34 % | 19.87 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 1.36 % | 8.1 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8.1 $ | -1.36 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.3777 % | 101.14 % | 1 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.323 | 0.3274 | 0.3122 | 2.45 | 0.4941 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 0.323
- Stop Loss: 0.3274
- Take Profit: 0.3122
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 0.3274 - 0.323 = 0.0044
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 0.323 - 0.3122 = 0.0108
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 0.0108 / 0.0044 = 2.4545
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -1.362%
(0.0044)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.709% | 0.5R | 0.3× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.790% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.790% | 0.6R | 0.2× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -0.969% | 0.7R | 0.2× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.186% | 0.1R | -1.737% | 1.3R | 0.1× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.186% | 0.1R | -3.607% | 2.7R | 0.1× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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