Short Trade on ZEC (BalanceBreakoutRegime)
With 1.96 ZEC at 485.67$ per unit. Take profit: 475.4821 (2.1 %) & Stop Loss: 489.7452 (0.84 %)
15 Aug 2026 at 22:09:59
hyperliquid
ZEC
SHORT
BalanceBreakoutRegime
hyperliquid
15 Aug 2026 22:09
→ 09:50
· 11 hours
Position
Entry 485.67$
Qty 1.9631 ZEC
Size 953.4268$ (margin 100$) (leverage 10)
Risk Setup
TP 475.4821 (+2.1%)
TP $ 20$
SL 489.7452 (-0.84%)
SL $ 8$
RR 2.5
Status
loss
PnL
-0.84%
/ -8$
MAE -1.38%
MFE +0.35%
0.4R
expires
16 Aug 10:09
V2 Shadow Analysis
Ce trade aurait-il passé les filtres v2 (quality rank + confidence + régime) ?
Quality Rank (id: 70909)
#27 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
score du 15/08/2026 22:00
score du 15/08/2026 22:00
Avg Rank 8h: 0.2352
Quality Score
0.464
score brut du coin
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Regime Score
0
BLOCKED
seuil : score ≥ 1
Décision V2
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime
Volume 24h (signal)
11.6M $
volume USDT au moment du signal
15/08 22:02
15/08 22:02
V3 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V3 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin (−10 → +10, seuil ≥ 3), et stop loss ≥ 0.75%.
Quality Rank
#27 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
BTC Regime Score
+1
−4 → +4 (macro BTC)
Coin Regime Score
0
−6 → +6 (1D/4H/1H coin)
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Décision V3
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL size
V4 Shadow Analysis
Filtres V4 : rank, confidence, régime combiné BTC + coin, SL ≥ 0.75%, Supply & Demand multi-TF (1H/4H/1D), Move Maturity multi-TF.
Quality Rank
#27 / 41
OK
seuil : top 15
Signal Confidence
85 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 40%
Combined Regime Score
+1
BLOCKED
seuil : BTC + coin ≥ 3
Stop Loss Size
0.84 %
OK
seuil : ≥ 0.75%
Supply & Demand — near Demand zone (SHORT: demand = adverse)
2/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Near Demand | Distance (ATR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1h | near | -0.91×ATR |
| 4h | near | -0.69×ATR |
| 1d | clear | 2.50×ATR |
Move Maturity — move down late = adverse (SHORT)
1/3 TF adverse
seuil : < 2 TF
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Adverse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | ↓ down | late | BLOCKED |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | OK |
| 1d | ↑ up | early | OK |
Décision V4
WOULD SKIP
rank + confidence + regime + SL + S&D + maturity
Regime
| BTC Market Regime | BTC Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|
|
ml_regime : neutral rules_regime : range_low rules_regime_5m : range_low Score : 0 |
ml_regime : bear_high Strategic (1D) : range_high (0) Operational (4H) : bear_medium (+1) Tactical (1H) : range_low (0) 15/08 22:00 Score : +1 |
| BTC Correlation | Coin Market Regime | Coin Market Regime V2 |
|---|---|---|
|
Strategic (1D) : bull_high (-3) 15/08 20:00 Operational (4H) : bear_high (+2) 15/08 20:00 Tactical (1H) : bear_medium (+1) 15/08 21:00 Score : 0 / ±6 |
Regime v2
BTC Regime (snapshot) 1557
range
compression
range_breakdown_risk
| Strategic | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Operational | bear | expansion | — | +1 |
| Tactical | range | compression | — | 0 |
| Micro | — | — |
MTF alignment :
0.55
Stability :
0.87
Transition risk :
0.13
Score contribution (this trade)
+1
Market Breadth
Breadth Score
—
Impulse :
—
% Positive (universe)
| 15m | — |
| 1h | — |
| 4h | — |
| 24h | — |
Outperformance vs BTC
| Window | % outperf | Median ret |
|---|---|---|
| 15m | — | — |
| 4h | — | — |
| 24h | — | — |
Dispersion :
—
Universe :
—
Regime confidence :
0.67
Snapshot évalué :
15/08 22:00
· env range_with_pressure
Quality Score
Score composite 0–1 combinant 5 composantes pondérées, calculé sur les bougies 1H
(+ 4H pour la force relative vs BTC).
Momentum (30 %) : retours multi-TF normalisés + pentes EMA 21/50/100.
Force Relative vs BTC (25 %) : surperformance du coin sur 1h/4h/1d/3d + beta 24h.
Volume (20 %) : volume relatif vs SMA20, z-score vs SMA50, tendance EMA5/50.
Qualité de Tendance (15 %) : ADX (force, bon > 25) + Chop Index (trend vs range, bon < 45).
Volatilité (10 %) : ATR% du prix — score optimal entre 0.3 % et 3 %, pénalisé au-delà de 6 %.
Le rank compare le coin à l'univers complet tracké au même instant.
1H
Calculé le
15/08/2026 22:00
Score brut
0.4640
Score SMA
0.4709
Rank
#27
/ 41
Rank Norm SMA 8h
0.2352
Rank Norm SMA
0.3532
Calculé le
15/08/2026 22:00
| Composante | Poids | Score | Détails |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 30% | 0.4424 | r1h: -0.410% · r4h: -0.837% · r1d: -2.23% · r3d: -0.44% · ema21_slope: -0.0227% · dist_ema21: -0.700% |
| Force Relative | 25% | 0.4428 | rs_1h: -0.382% · rs_4h: -0.691% · rs_1d: -2.27% · rs_3d: 0.18% · beta_24h: 1.039 |
| Volume | 20% | 0.3351 | rvol_20: 1.45× · zscore_50: -0.345 · trend: -45.05% |
| Qualité Tendance | 15% | 0.3570 | ADX: 10.7 (weak) · Chop: 66.9 (range) |
| Volatilité | 10% | 1.0000 | ATR%: 0.577% (optimal 0.3–3 %) |
📌 Performance
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.839%
(4.0752)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.251% | 0.3R | -0.379% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.251% | 0.3R | -0.379% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.251% | 0.3R | -0.653% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.350% | 0.4R | -0.766% | 0.9R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.350% | 0.4R | -1.380% | 1.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.350% | 0.4R | -2.032% | 2.4R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Prediction
ML Trade Score: -100
ML Pullback Score: 0.88
Prediction Score: N/A
Contexte Multi-Timeframe (au signal)
ⓘ| TF | Direction | Phase | Structure | Strength | Momentum | Volatility | Regime | Tradability | PAQ | Move | Demand | Supply | BTC Corr | BTC Regime | BTC OutPerf | RS / BTC | Évalué à |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bull_high |
59%
|
noisy_chop 33% | early | — | — | 0.47 | bear_high | -5.07% | +0.31 | 15/08 20:00 |
| 4h | ↓ down | range | range | moderate | fading | compression | bear_high |
57%
|
noisy_chop 37% | early | near -0.7ATR | — | 0.63 | bear_medium | -1.28% | -0.07 | 15/08 20:00 |
| 1h | ↔ neutral | transition | bullish_transition | moderate | fading | compression | bear_medium |
55%
|
noisy_chop 38% | late | near -0.9ATR | — | 0.53 | range_low | -0.48% | -0.12 | 15/08 21:00 |
| 15m | ↔ neutral | range | range | moderate | balanced | normal | range_low |
38%
|
noisy_chop 42% | late | — | — | 0.44 | range_low | -0.02% | -0.05 | 15/08 21:45 |
| 5m | — | ||||||||||||||||
Move Maturity (au signal)
| TF | Direction | Maturity | Age (bars) | Age since BOS | Amplitude | Amp. %ile | Extension | Ext. %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | ↑ up | early | 18b | — | 1.548×ATR | p0 | -0.307×ATR | p18 |
| 4h | ↑ up | early | 9b | — | 0.641×ATR | p0 | -0.769×ATR | p47 |
| 1h | ↓ down | late | 4b | — | 1.94×ATR | p36 | -1.657×ATR | p83 |
| 15m | ↓ down | late | 16b | — | 3.902×ATR | p86 | -1.066×ATR | p62 |
Maturity — late : Amp ≥ p80 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p85 · mid : Amp ≥ p50 ou Ext/EMA9 ≥ p60 · Amp. %ile : amplitude du move depuis le dernier pivot (en ATR) vs historique des swings · Ext. %ile : écart prix/EMA9 normalisé ATR14 vs historique
Signal
BalanceBreakoutRegime - SELL
Indicators:
- long_trend: -1
- confidence: 0.8483
- reason: down_bo width=2.73×ATR dur=45b phase=fresh
- stop_price: 489.74515288
- tp_price: 475.4821178
- atr:
- score: 0.84826826563301
- expires_at: 2026-08-16T14:09:51.695080
- max_bars: 12
- max_bars_tf: 1h
- confidence_pre_ob: 0.84826826563301
Details
- 1H:
- 15m:
- 5m:
- btc_indicators ¸
- market_structures ¸
- market_structure_v2 ¸
- trend_analyzer_1h ¸
- orderbook_context
- obi_top5 : 0.0085
- obi_top10 : 0.0085
- micro_price : 485.64451008
- spread_pct : 0.002059
- mid_price : 485.645
- bid_wall_price :
- bid_wall_size :
- bid_wall_dist_atr :
- ask_wall_price :
- ask_wall_size :
- ask_wall_dist_atr :
- snapshots_count : 5
- obi_top5_mean : 0.0086
- obi_top5_std : 0.0001
- pressure_side : neutral
- collection_mode : ws_rolling
- collection_ms : 7070
- aggregation_tick : 1
- error : ¸
- strategy_details
- strategy : balance_breakout_regime_strict
- strategy_details
- balance_zone_top:
493.1
- balance_zone_bottom:
485.86
- balance_zone_mid:
489.48
- balance_zone_start_time:
1786687200
- balance_zone_end_time:
1786845600
- balance_zone_width_atr:
2.7305
- balance_zone_duration_bars:
45
- balance_zone_quality: tight
- balance_zone_maturity: established
- balance_zone_confidence:
0.8483
- balance_zone_state: leaving_balance
- balance_zone_breakout_direction: down
- balance_zone_breakout_phase: fresh
- balance_zone_breakout_time:
1786842000
- balance_zone_breakout_price:
485.86
- strategy_details
- balance_metrics_inside_close_ratio:
0.7333
- balance_metrics_bars_since_breakout:
1
- balance_metrics_distance_to_edge_atr:
0.0717
- balance_metrics_has_retested:
1
- balance_metrics_retest_count:
1
- balance_metrics_touch_upper:
5
- balance_metrics_touch_lower:
8
- regime : bear_high
- atr_entry : 2.6515288 ¸
Signal Details
duration_bars
45
inside_close_ratio
0.7333
bars_since_breakout
1
distance_to_edge_atr
0.0717
Signaux confirmants (5)
| # | Heure | Entry | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22:09 | 485.67000000 | 0% |
| 2 | 22:16 | 485.67000000 | 0% |
| 3 | 22:21 | 484.67000000 | -0.206% |
| 4 | 22:27 | 484.67000000 | -0.206% |
| 5 | 22:34 | 484.67000000 | -0.206% |
Market Structure
Market Structure Score: 0
Market Structure V2
No Market Structure V2 data for this trade.
Trend Analyzer 1H
No Trend Analyzer data for this trade.
Orderbook Context
→ neutral
ws_rolling
5 snapshots
7070ms
Confidence avant OB :
85%
→
85%
Order Book Imbalance
OBI Top 5
0.009
avg 0.009
± 0.000
OBI Top 10
0.009
Microstructure
Mid Price
485.6450
Micro Price
485.6445
Spread
0.0021%
📌 Entry & Exit
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 485.67 | 489.7452 | 475.4821 | 2.5 | 1384.1 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 485.67
- Stop Loss: 489.7452
- Take Profit: 475.4821
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 489.7452 - 485.67 = 4.0752
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 485.67 - 475.4821 = 10.1879
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 10.1879 / 4.0752 = 2.5
📌 Position Size
| Amount | Margin | Quantity | Leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 953.4268 | 100 | 1.9631 | 10.00 |
Details
1. Déterminer le montant risqué sur ce trade
Risk Amount = Capital x Risk per trade
Paramètres:
- Account Size 100
- Risk per trade 8 %
Risk Amount = 100 x 0.08 = 8
Donc, tu es prêt à perdre 8$ maximum sur ce trade
2. Calcul Risk per Share / Nombre d'unité à acheter
Taille de position = Risk Amount / Distance Stop Loss
Taille de position USD = Taille de position x Entry Price
Paramètres:
- Risk Amount 8
- Distance Stop Loss 4.0752
Taille de position = 8 / 4.0752 = 1.96
Taille de position USD = 1.96 x 485.67 = 951.91
Donc, tu peux acheter 1.96 avec un stoploss a 489.7452
Avec un position size USD de 951.91$
3. Calcul de la PERTE potentielle
Perte = Taille de position x Distance Stop Loss
Perte = 1.96 x 4.0752 = 7.99
Si Stop Loss atteint, tu perdras 7.99$
4. Calcul du GAIN potentielle
Gain = Taille de position x Distance Take Profit
Perte = 1.96 x 10.1879 = 19.97
Si Take Profit atteint, tu gagneras 19.97$
Résumé
- Taille de position 1.96
- Taille de position USD 951.91
- Perte potentielle 7.99
- Gain potentiel 19.97
- Risk-Reward Ratio 2.5
📌 Peformances
| TP % Target | TP $ Target |
|---|---|
| 2.1 % | 20 $ |
| SL % Target | SL $ Target |
|---|---|
| 0.84 % | 8 $ |
| PNL | PNL % |
|---|---|
| -8 $ | -0.84 |
| Max Drawdown | Max Drawdown / SL Ratio | Candles in Entry |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9471 % | 112.87 % | 18 |
| Entry | Stop Loss | Take Profit | RR | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 485.67 | 489.7452 | 475.4821 | 2.5 | 1384.1 |
Details
Click the "Sign Up" button in the top right corner and follow the registration process.
Pour calculer le Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) sur un trade short, on utilise la formule :
RRR = Distance jusqu'au Take Profit ÷ Distance jusqu'au Stop Loss
Détails du trade:
- Entry 485.67
- Stop Loss: 489.7452
- Take Profit: 475.4821
Calcul:
-
Risque (distance jusqu'au stop loss) :
SL - E = 489.7452 - 485.67 = 4.0752
-
Récompense (distance jusqu'au take profit):
E - TP = 485.67 - 475.4821 = 10.1879
-
Risk-Reward Ratio:
RRR = TP_DIST / SL_DIST = 10.1879 / 4.0752 = 2.5
📌 ML Extra Data
Extra TP Data
Array
(
)
Extra SL data
Array
(
)
MAE / MFE Analysis
Strat: BalanceBreakoutRegime (★
12h)
Initial Risk: -0.839%
(4.0752)
| Horizon | MFE % | MFE R | MAE % | MAE R | MFE/MAE | Candles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | +0.251% | 0.3R | -0.379% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 12 |
| 2h | +0.251% | 0.3R | -0.379% | 0.5R | 0.7× | 24 |
| 4h | +0.251% | 0.3R | -0.653% | 0.8R | 0.4× | 48 |
| 8h | +0.350% | 0.4R | -0.766% | 0.9R | 0.5× | 96 |
| 12h ★ | +0.350% | 0.4R | -1.380% | 1.6R | 0.3× | 144 |
| 24h | +0.350% | 0.4R | -2.032% | 2.4R | 0.2× | 288 |
computed 1 month ago
Commentaires
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